weatherwiz

Just get it out of here before May

Well only 32-days until May first and like another 16-17 before the GFS does a peek-a-boo into May!!! Also going to get a nice pre-severe season treat Saturday

Could be a decent little swath of wind damage. Decent llvl CAPE and not only are mlvl lapse rates pretty steep, helping to boost instability, but llvl lapse rates are pretty steep too.

IIRC correctly, the 2015-2016 EL Nino...weren't initial projects for a weak EL Nino or am I remembering incorrectly?

Seems like a pretty impressive warm sector for in terms of dew points surging northward. Dynamics are through the roof. The warm sector seems messy though with lots of precip which may hinder instability and dampen lapse rates. That is an impressively large enhanced risk, but given some of the questions, I think you'll see some more concentrated pockets of widespread wind damage and not as extensive as the enhanced risk. southern Iowa into northern Missouri and western Illinois may be greatest overall potential.

Well the official start to severe season is just over a month away, but that doesn't mean we can't get some strong convective threats prior to then. Through the day, an area of surface low pressure moves across southeast Canada with a warm front lifting northward across southern New England and a trailing cold front moving east across New York and Pennsylvania. During the morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms move across the region, then we dry out a bit and become mostly cloudy with temperatures climbing into the 50's and 60's with dewpoints climbing into the 50's. Mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/KM are also expected to overspread the region. The presence of these steep lapse rates will help contribute to several hundred joules of mixed-layer CAPE Saturday afternoon ahead of the front with strong dynamics. While there is an abundance of dry air throughout the column, enough convergence is expected along the front to help aid in the development of a line of rain and thunderstorms. Embedded damaging wind gusts and hail are possible within the strongest cores!!!

I was debating starting a severe thread. Not a fan of how dry alot of soundings looked though...but there may be enhanced convergence right along the front. Good sign to see models with decent QPF signal.

Great sign to see...getting pretty CAPE colors into the OV now. Bodes well going into May/June as long as we don't have to do with any funny ULL parked to our north

weird...you would think it would mix out based on wind profile

It's not going to fall apart. It may weaken slightly but it may actually rejuvenate some by the coast. Should be a decent amount of lightning with this thing

There were certainly stretches this winter where the regime was more "Nino like" then La Nina. With the weakening Nina the atmospheric/oceanic coupling began to weaken. This is another major part of ENSO and it's influence on the pattern too. There is an atmospheric component of ENSO and oceanic. The pattern will be more reflective of what you would expect in a given ENSO state when the atmosphere and ocean are strongly coupled.

I don't have snowfall statistics but we've had Strong Nino's (especially early in the 1900's) which the pattern certainly looked like it could favor decent snow chances and those winters weren't blow torches either. It is interesting though that the warmest strong Ninos have occurred since the 80's. My list of Strong EL Nino's (super strong is ****)

eh not sure this is really flash freeze type stuff. It obviously will be a little slick where precipitation falls, but I wouldn't characterize this as flash freeze type stuff.

I like to close my eyes and pretend it's june

I wonder if the SST configuration has had something to do with this...or maybe its just the constant barrage of deep WC troughs has influenced the SSTs off the coast.

Strength breakdowns

Ahhh this is one of the sites I had but lost within my bookmarks somehow. I like how it doesn't break the data. It's great to know when the sites change location but that can be just noted. I still think it's stupid they have nothing for BDL 2005-2006 through 2009-2010. That's absurd. I know a few were terrible but come on. Absolutely unbelievable.

This is looking really fun tomorrow evening

Yes. I even went through the different types under station. The record begins 1948-1949 (which I think is when maybe the station moved from Hartford) but I know there was data going back farther then that. This stuff pisses me off so much.

ahh right, thanks. I don't know why I keep confusing the two. I just have to write it down in a notebook

This is the crap that pisses me of. Here is BDL. Now I get the crap that happened mid 90's into the early 2000's but WHAT THE **** IS THIS? This is absolutely unacceptable and embarrassing beyond belief. How in the hell can the database with snowfall keeping be this terrible? 5 year old's do a better job organizing their Legos. I would love to do a bit more with understanding snowfall during ENSO BUT HOW THE HELL IS THAT POSSIBLE WHEN THE RECORD KEEPING AND DATABASE IS UTTERLY PATHETIC. This is bullshit. What a fooking embarrassment.

Annual snowfall period is October 1 - September 30, right?

I don't disagree with anything you said here. This is exactly why IMO getting too detailed with seasonal outlooks and long-range forecasting can ultimately bite you. There is absolutely no way to diagnose or predict the noise. Ultimately, it's going to be the noise which influences the details of a season. For anyone who partakes in seasonal forecasting, the best course of action is to probably do an initial outlook which focuses on pattern and evolution and incorporating all the variables...and then over the course of the season follow up forecasts are done which can focus more on the noise and details.

This season further emphasized that when it comes to the NAO (and this can be used for PNA, EPO, etc). it has way more to do whether the index is positive or negative, it's all about evolution, structure, and where the core of the anomalies are within the domain.

1000% agreed. This is the mindset everyone needs to have and consider. We will also encounter evolutions we've never seen before just b/c there is in infinite number of potential outcomes. One big example of this was the notion that we couldn't get KU's during La Nina's b/c it had "never happened" Well early 2010's had something to say about that.