weatherwiz
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Ehh not a huge fan of doing that, especially driving through heavy rain where it’s tough to see. But I think we’re in a fine spot. Just saw lightning!!
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I hope the core doesn’t go just west
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Hoping this will come up
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Made it to lee!
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Going to Lee SCREW IT. Only a 48-minute drive.
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hmmm Lee may not be bad per the HRRR.
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We were going to do that, but its over 1h30m drive and we didn't think we would have enough time to really get there, but I know exactly what you're talking about!
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Cancelling Lee. Have a boundary already about to go through there. Hoping that boundary will spark up stuff as it moves southeast. That cluster west of VT going to peter out
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Gotta remember...setups which contain steep mid-level lapse rates need to be treated differently. If we didn't have steep lapse rates, the smoke negating any convection would certainly become a larger factor as we would need to be much more reliant of strong sfc heating to help boost CAPE.
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Lee is about a 50-minute drive from here so going to head there in a few and just see what happens.
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I don't think the smoke is a huge hinder. At least per mesoanalysis, there doesn't appear to be any CIN and our instability is the result of the steep lapse rates. Surface temperatures are into the 70's which is enough to have MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/KG. If anything, the lower dewpoints are the bigger hinder, at least for more scattered-to-numerous development.
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Maybe Lee is a good spot
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this isolated crap makes it difficult to figure out where to go. That SVR looks decent, but is likely to fizzle once it becomes outflow dominant.
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Yeah it's been back and forth for several days on this. I am really hoping we can get some decent convective threats my last week of vacation.
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Pretty textbook inverted-v tectbook profiles. Even crazier off to our Southwest. Pretty crazy to see a critical fire risk in the Northeast/mid-Atlantic due to dry thunderstorms and concerns for lightning strikes outside of convection to potentially spark fires.
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Shear is on the meh side, but lapse rates 7-7.5 C/KM! Mesos have been a bit more on the aggressive side too with scattered development. May not take much for cells to produce small hail.
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BIG MARGINAL RISK!!!!!!
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Storm popped up west of Rutland
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Wild https://atmos.northernvermont.edu/weather-data/lyndon-mesonet/green-mountain-aerie-rochester-vt-webcam/?fbclid=IwAR0ZS2EFa8M7sOJvaUKUOzN0raDE21jBG0c5R9LVVdMcZ8bjkNaEZz5HvLA
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Hoping to chase today
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Going to be chasing tomorrow!
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Certainly will not help with getting any good heating, but luckily our instability is a product of the steep lapse rates and not totally dependent on heating.
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Might be pretty early too...could see stuff forming by like 11 AM which would hinder instability a bit. Not that there is much room to generate a ton of CAPE given low sfc temps/dewpoints but with steep lapse rates it doesn't take much to get 1250-1500 MLCAPE with enough heating and dews even in the 50's.
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At least there is the hope aspect.
