weatherwiz

This map reminds me of that Simon game where you have to match the color patterns the computer does. What color do we stop it at New England tonight, orange or red?

snow just started to fall here

yeah looks like the strongest portion remains south of Long Island and then grazes the outer Cape.

Looks like the HRRR keeps the strongest portion of the forced line farther south. That will be a nowcasting event but I think it at least crosses somewhere in SNE. I'm expecting we'll see some severe thunderstorm warnings late overnight and a swath of wind gusts 60-70 mph. Outages are going to lite up like crazy.

I'm pretty impressed with the convection signal.

It will be interesting to see how well the cold holds in the valley. Any areas that are able to climb into the lower 50's tonight I think is in line for big winds. Some areas may even only experience 50 for an hour or two...right as the line is approaching. Sometimes a situation like this can enhance the wind potential because you're steepening the lapse rate so quickly you get like a mixing momentum boost (I know this isn't a good scientific explanation).

This is 6z but here is BDL. You don't have to go very far in the vertical for strong winds. A good line of forced convection would easily tap into these

Now obviously winds can be 1000 mph at 925/850 but if you're not mixing into these levels you're not bringing winds down. The hi-res models continue to be very aggressive with a very fine line of convection moving through and timed well with when the LLJ is strongest. I think the wind is going to be a very big deal overnight, but it will be brief. I think the wind is being downplayed big time. It boggles me b/c 9 times out of 10 the wind gets hyped like crazy and then when a scenario arises where it should be it doesn't. I am fairly confident we're going to see widespread power outages tonight from CT through RI and into SE MA.

Holy shit. that has to be some kind of feedback...

Around 190K right now between Alabama/Florida/Georgia. Probably see a good amount across the mid-Atlantic later on with the squall line ripping through there. I'm sure though they will get power restored relatively quickly within these markets...but it does remain windy on the backside so that could delay restorations possibly if conditions are still too dangerous for crews.

yeah good point...going to be tough to get out-of-state help in this one. 3km remains very consistent for a nasty line moving northeast through SNE later overnight.

so many folks going to be a popsicle when they wake up without power tomorrow.

Yeah their focus is probably more so mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Looks like that line would be right along the nose of the powerful H5 jet and on the leading edge of steepening lapse rates. This scenario does have support so we'll see.

I bet we end up seeing a marginal risk for svr in a later outlook. The signal for such a line is becoming more impressive. Seeing the 3km so aggressive opens my eyes b/c it's usually more poo poo. Going to be fun to see carpet bomb SVR's at 4 AM Wednesday.

18z HRRR and 3km both showing a a fine line rip through overnight. When folks wake up Wednesday morning with trees down all around them, garbage cans blocks away, and roof tiles in their driveway...well don't say they weren't warned.

If it wasn't for this stupid CAD I bet we'd have a slight risk or enhanced risk for tomorrow night with 30% wind, 5% tor.

The convection signal is much higher in this than the previous two setups I think.

I'm thinking the sustained nature of the winds is what will be most impressive (in the 20-30+ mph range). The wind gust potential I am a bit torn on, but siding to the idea that we will see a few hour period where gusts get 50-60 across the entire region.

Agreed, @dendrite please pin this thread. It keeps getting lost in the other pinned threads and it's a bit noisy on the brain trying to find this with some super long thread titles mixed in.

This is what I am really torn on...bufkit soundings are largely unimpressive. But NBM is very bullish with the wind potential. My concern with this event is that bufkit is underplaying the wind potential because it tends to struggle with the mixing aspect when it's spitting out heavy rain. I think if we do get temps into the lower 50's and dews at least upper 40's it's game on for wind.

We did, but I think preceding conditions make this an even higher impact event.

Yeah I can't remember something like this either. Right on the heels of a massive snow event and in a situation where the ground is already extremely saturated. I am becoming more concerned with the wind potential. The sustained winds are going to be super impressive, but we'll have a 3-5 hour window where I think we get widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts. We'll be dealing with widespread river/stream flooding, poor drainage/low lying flooding, and widespread power outages.

I'm not sure what media is saying or what's going around social media but I hope this is being hit hard...especially since we had a few events (though last one was certainly more impressive) this season which were hyped like crazy and we're meh except locally. This one should be widespread impact IMO.

I think there is enough convective elements and mesoscale features for the higher totals to verify.

Yeah and it makes some degree of sense I think. Looks like we get a second low to pop across eastern NY, this alone would limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front. The extent of snow cover should also limit the northward extent of the sfc warm front (or at least slow it). All in all if that sfc warm front sets up and stalls across CT, there will be enhanced llvl forcing and enhanced moisture advection from the LLJ. PWAT anomalies are +5-6SD!!! The more I look into the 12z guidance the more concerned I am becoming. This one is going to be extremely ugly I think.