weatherwiz

definitely interested. I will go check it out.

I don't think ensembles are going to be much help with this and we're probably not going to get much clarity until we're about 60 hours out. Any "trends" we see now are going to be pretty worthless...we're going to have to see how guidance is handling everything once we get to the 72 hour window. This seems like a constant theme these past 3-4 winters.

So much hostility for no reason. We finally not only get one event to track, but two and that still isn't good enough Those up in northern areas certainly have some legit concern but the 7th is certainly the best signal and threat we have had in quite some time. Still a quite a bit of uncertainty involved and not sure I like the crap of shortwave mess but beggars can't be choosers.

What is even going on??? These last few pages have been an absolute mess. What is the fighting even over? There is too much fine detail going on. There’s certainly nothing wrong with discussing things in terms of verbatim several days out, but there needs to be perspective. At this point, the only thing that matters is there is potential for a storm and confidence in that is in the moderate territory now…you can argue high but that’s risky, even at this range. we have this going: 1) an NAO becoming negative and decreasing 2) a PNA becoming negative this combo can be stormy and that is being reflected by the OP/ENS. We are also seeing the strong high to the north. Based on the evolution of the pattern, we can probably gauge a higher likelihood for track but the evolution of things will be up for question.

Not ready to throw all cards on the table yet, but at least this should be a fun week of weather tracking. Whenever you have energy and a potential storm showing up during a period which long-range and teleconnections suggest the pattern could be favorable it is always a positive. We track and discuss.

Yup. Shame too b/c I like jet blue

Two 16oz can of beers at the hockey game last night…$20 each

Flying back to snowless CT. TV in the flight doesn’t work, charging outlet doesn’t work, and it’s a bit of a bumpy flight and I have a massive headache

At the Rangers/Panthers game in Florida…The ice crew is shoveling more snow than any of us have.

smelling a Cape or bust event

That's ridiculous. Let's look at Jan 1958, for example and compare to the 1921-1950 climatology vs. the 1991-2020 climatology. Sure there are some differences with the anomalies being tempered back a bit, but we're not looking at drastic changes which make older analogs obsolete. They absolutely are still relevant. EDIT: some differences may also exist here as I am using two different data sets but this is because NCEP/NCAR only goes back to 1948 so to make 1921-1950 climatology I had to use 20CRv3.

Don't necessarily need a +PNA. A relaxation of the PNA could be more than enough.

maybe we can at least get a low topped squall line

This deserves both a reaction and a reply. Here's the reply

They're onto 18z

What grinds me most is how much MOS (And I'll put NBM in this category too) scales back to climo, thus they're absolutely horrible in anomalous air masses. Surely there has to be a way to negate this or have climo weighed less. IDK...maybe that is something for AI (please smack me).

Hopefully it all melts before May 1

If this winter ends up as a rat I will be extremely perplexed. I figured this winter would be above-average in terms of precipitation and we're doing extremely well in that department. If you would have told me we'd get 7-10'' of precipitation this month and the result at the major climo sites for snow was a goose egg I'd have laughed. I still expect we'll be on the active side the remainder of winter, but all we need is just to shake things up slightly. An airmass slightly above-average in terms of temps in Jan/Feb is vastly different than an airmass slightly above-average temp wise in Dec. Even if we don't see significant changes...hopefully climo will at least work in our favor.

I've been thinking about this the past few days as I've made some posts about how we need something big to really shake things up. We may just have to closely monitor the stratosphere and hope the signals for a SSW can emerge (and of course hope it does so that is favorable for our side of the hemisphere). If we can get a SSW and prompt the development of blocking things are going to change quickly. Of course this scenario would be lagged but once (if) we see it occur, it's just a matter of when things pan out. I am hoping such a scenario will occur when the PAC relaxes some or enough to displace some colder air into Canada so if blocking does transpire we'll at least have a period where the source region will be better.

I agree, if we get deep into January (mid-month) and we haven't seen improvements or there is nothing on the horizon...and I mean as in days it may be time to start worrying. At that point it will probably be preparations for May.

Using an OP static hour to quantify the pattern?

This is brutal...47F at CEF and only 60F at PBI

This is why why I thought it should be looked at lol. This makes the most sense and is the more correct method.

It seemed some were hot to trot because of Region 1.2. No matter how many times you tell people that is the most volatile region in terms of SST changes they don't want to listen.

I think that is a pretty good bet. The OND value probably comes in at around +1.8C is my guess.