weatherwiz

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully wiz is still conscious after that SB commercial 

Took a few longer swigs of beer to prevent hyperventilating 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I was toggling h5 at 42h, it was def a tick north. I don’t toggle QPF maps when I’m doing my analysis 

Yeah I'm not sure why anyone would want to really do that, that analysis doesn't tell you anything at all. If you're seeing changes I would think you'd want to look at what the root cause is and look for any changes in evolution, structure, lift, etc. Sure the 18z GFS may be "south" but it was more juiced overall. That's a ton of QPF being thrown into some intense lifting. 

I'm not so sure the difference is north/south as much as it is structural/evolution differences. It's easy to say there is a shift just comparing the snow maps (which is awful) and QPF maps, but there may be much more it to than just shifting. 

Boston could get smoked. 

I just realized something...the big storm on 01/07 the Bruins played the Lightning in Boston and SMOKED them. Bruins play the Lightning again this Tuesday...Lightning may not be the only thing getting smoked in Boston Tuesday.

Still pretty impressive stuff on the 18z GFS bufkit for BDL. 45 units of omega into the SGZ is pretty wild stuff. I am still a little nervous about getting widespread 12''+ (but did that anyways) given how quickly this race through. Cobb technique does have ratios under the banding around 13:1. If we can get ratios that high then 12''+ should happen

I don't think there would be thundersnow. But I usually overplay it so now that I say there won't be we'll have thunder galore. 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nicely done 

Not as confident out towards the Cape. I always have low confidence out there since I never go into great depth looking. Spent alot of time trying to digest the banding potential and highest total swath. I almost didn't want to include that area and go with a larger range because its going to be very difficult to determine how that evolves. 

Forecast 

https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2024/02/tuesday-february-13-2024-winter-storm.html

I wonder if the NAM is chasing convection here

1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

Nam3km is beautiful for CT.

It is. The 3km NAM also aligns more with my thinking currently. I've never been big on the NAM for this type of system and was just more curious with how it would handle banding over anything else. The NAM has been more inconsistent run-to-run than most other models. I am inclined to toss it...but there is always that worry it "sniffs" something out. Working on a snowfall forecast now.

the 3km seems nothing like the 12z. I've seen the two differ before but WTF

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

There is one on that pic posted right over the coop

no precip going on though. 

Just now, JoeSnowBOS said:

NWS Boston updated its Winter Storm watch….was 4-10 inches yesterday and today it’s 4-8….brought down top amounts. Wonder why…..hmm


.

The upper end of totals is going to be held back just due to how quickly this is racing through. I think it's still a challenge as to what the upper range is but I would think it will be tough for even the hardest hit areas to get more than a foot. 

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

What about the fronto band Wiz just posted on the nam?

That is moreso down across northern CT into southern MA. Precip is knocking on the NH border at that time

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s warm in a lot of CT/RI/SE MA. 

Yeah 3km does look a few degrees warmer. Interesting...not sure what to make of that. Seems slow to cool 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam juiced. Pretty awesome band near and just north of pike.

3km has a little warm nose around H7 within southern CT. Going to be some power issues right along the southern flank of these totals where the snow is wet...especially with some wind. Even BDL I wonder if they could gust 30-35 mph. 

Death band of fronto on the NAM. 

Just now, dendrite said:

What about 2.75”?

Was just looking at 6z GFS bufkit for BDL and its pretty wild. Should see a good 3-4 hours where rates are anywhere from 1.5''/HR to as high as 2.5''/HR. 

I’m thinking like 12” for me. Not 11.5, not 11.8, not 10.2, not 13.1, not 12.1”…but a nice solid foot 

3 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I agree.  Surprises, surprises. All upside, though.  

For some yes…but I think there will be some downside surprises as well. It’s just natural in this type of setup. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Much less impressive aloft that run but that’s gonna happen. It’s why we’re not forecasting 1-2 feet. But I think the general idea of a favorable track puts a floor of about 7-8” there. Exact dynamic evolution still TBD which will determine whether it’s 8-10” or 12-18” in your area. 

If that banding materializes quick enough I think Ray has a good shot for 15” or so. This one will have lots of surprises, on the high and low side. It will be what it will be 

Well considering I may get a foot of snow and wet snow I finally uninstalled the A/C in the bedroom. 

BDL 18z GFS bufkit...holy crap. 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Here's our first call. Only thing I don't like about the 18z GFS is that it brought the 700mb low a bit farther north. Have to watch that south of the Pike I think. 

Yeah there's alot with the 700 low that has me nervous. I think this is going to be a nice storm but still lots of questions to resolve.