weatherwiz

May head to BDL shortly for that cell in eastern NY. May end up sliding a bit south of BDL though.

western Mass and northwest CT still in the game for later this afternoon.

western Mass and northwest CT still in the game for later this afternoon.

Hope this works https://www.wfsb.com/2024/06/14/chunk-ice-falls-sky-crashing-into-familys-roof/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0dnp9tNhWDiTaoTTDC0nzlkUovoDIdKbKDiLLBXsqv_9U3NoDPS0V9sn8_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw

Oh def not hail. yeah I’m thinking it was a chunk of ice off a plane…maybe frozen poop?

This is insane. I saw an mPING report on Radarscope that said hail > 5.00'' in northern New Jersey...I was like wtf. There is even anything there. I just found out a large chunk of ice crashed through the roof of a house

This round of showers may end up being too strong and screw things up for later. 3km NAM I think is on that idea happening.

yup

Yup...given the weak mid-level lapse rates we need to maximize sfc heating so we can achieve maximum instability. Mid-level lapse rates may also improve some as the day progresses. Could see them in the 6-6.5 C/KM range which isn't terrible, especially around here. HRRR continues to be rather inconsistent with its run-to-run evolution, however, I think we have a solid idea on how today evolves. We see some early stuff move through (which may also set a boundary for later) then by mid-to-late afternoon we see rapid development and a quick organization into a line with a focus on where the boundary resides.

This aspect has been intriguing. Seems like we've been trending in this direction.

It should be active in terms of showers and thunderstorms today. Obviously any severe storms are going to be more localized. But those hoping for some rain will certainly have a chance today.

well we'll see what early morning runs look like but the mesos have been all over the place. Not atypical for this far out but we've yet to see much consistency.

I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before.

Winter storm watches in Montana

yeah SW CT may be a decent spot for best chance for stronger storms. southern VT/northwest MA I don't think is as good as it previously looked.

the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording

Saw that...interesting. Right now seems to be mesos vs non mesos

How come everyone has to assume that when talking about thunderstorms that automatically means it has to be a high risk setup, if not then its a "bust"?

I was worried that system may have some influence on this

that def has me a bit intrigued.

Thread for Friday made

An amplifying shortwave trough with associated cold front at the surface traverse the Northeast Friday. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70's and 80's with dewpoints climbing into the 60's. This should result in mixed-layer CAPE values ranging anywhere between 1,000-1,500 J/KG by peak heating. While there is potential for a narrow corridor of values in the 1,500-2,000 range, weak mid-level lapse rates will limit how unstable the atmosphere will become. Associated with the approaching shortwave trough will be seasonably strong dynamics characterized by 30-35 knots of bulk shear. Given the combination of modest instability, adequate deep layer shear, and strong forcing, scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid-day across central New York southwest into Pennsylvania. Given shear will become parallel to the front, convection should grow upscale into a line and then slowly sag southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. While low-level winds aren't overly impressive, the combination of steep lapse rates and unstable low-levels will yield the risk for damaging wind gusts within the strongest cells. Higher 0-3km helicity values may result in the potential for some small hail with any transient supercell structures and storm motion parallel to the front will yield potential for localized flash flooding, particularly in low-lying, flood prone areas. Best chance for strong thunderstorms will be across southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, western Mass, and northwest Connecticut.

I'll probably make a Friday thread soon. Stay tuned! Models had this pegged for a week...not bad.

And it’s not even seltzer! I can’t stand seltzer. My girlfriend says they’re the same but she had me try a seltzer and blah.

High Noons are so delicious and only 4.5%. So if you’re with people and having fun and tend to drink more quickly, you can have 5 or 6 of these and not feel much.