Floydbuster

It's been 30 years since the Category 5 storm struck South Florida, and then later Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane.

As the 12Z rolls out (and looks scary), it is interesting that last night I noticed the Central Atlantic convection around 55W getting slightly better defined. Noticing some ever-so-slight turning if you use your imagination.

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it. 

We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge.

Maybe someone can help, on a somewhat unrelated note, my entire browser is full of ads anytime I'm on this website. It didn't use to be like that. Is that normal? I can't even get to my "quote" box in the bottom right-screen.

Wake me when it crosses 60W.

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

I poked around a bit, the monster on the 18z GFS is a 5... 140kt barbs not far off the surface

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Yeah once you see those tight closed isobars on a long-range model, that likely indicates a much stronger storm. So if the hurricane into SE Florida is "964 mb" that could actually be something more like a Cat 3/4. 

Looks like Danielle lives to see another day this season.

That setup is very dangerous for the SE US coast.

Good grief. 384 hrs but still. Frances anyone?

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have to acknowledge that virtually everything has been a struggle in this basin thus far.

We’re only now approaching the 20th and there’s a long way to go, but it really is put up or shut up time. Preseason is over and the clock is ticking now. 

Things have been getting better but it’s clearly not enough yet for any meaningful activity.

That's just not true at all though.

In 1999, we didn't get Hurricane Floyd or Hurricane Irene or Hurricane Lenny until Sept 13th.

In 2000, it was October 1st when we had three developing hurricanes (Isaac, Joyce and Keith).

Those are two of todays analog years. La Nina years have more active September and Octobers.

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That ridge building over the top with a trough coming in behind would make folks sweat no doubt about it.

Yeah in that run, it misses the weakness and ends up trapped with rebuilding heights above.

Looks great. 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin. 

Each year looks essentially the same to me.

The NHC doesn't have a lemon because the wave that is likely to form isn't necessarily the one leaving Africa now, it's probably the one following behind. 

Nevertheless, the consistency of the long-range ensembles show the lid peeling off.

12Z GFS showing a powerful hurricane striking North Gulf Coast around August 28th.

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

You love to see it...

 

I remember in 2000, the only coverage of Cat 4 Hurricane Keith offshore Belize was a blurb on CNN and the tropical updates on the Weather Channel. Nowadays, you have CNN articles about 384 hour GFS models.

Katrina changed everything. Pre-Katrina, you would have never seen a news article about an obscure long-range weather model.

The O0Z GFS showed three hurricanes off Africa, lined up like a train.

Some of the ridging setup looks potentially dangerous for the SE US coast in some of the long-range runs. Take with a grain of salt, but still.

Another day over water and this would have been Danielle.

32 minutes ago, Normandy said:

if the GFS is to be believed, August will still pump out at least 4 NS.  The MDR is absolutely cooked though, or it will have an absurdly late start.

I was gonna say, I see Danielle, Earl and Fiona by August 28th per the 12Z GFS.

15 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Dorian was basically the next Andrew until it miraculously stalled at the last second and turned due north. I still can't believe that happened like that. Plus considering this is a La Nina year yet again I would expect it to at least not be a dud season

Nah it's not gonna be a dud season. Alot of these youngsters have been spoiled by 20 named storm swirls by July 15th.

I'm an old timer. (compared to them) I remember tracking the 2nd named storms "Bonnie" and "Bret" in '98 and '99 and they were still weeks away from where we are now. Plus, just 24 hrs ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane scraping the East Coast and then another hurricane headed for the Lesser Antilles. Yeah it dropped it, but still a sign of things to come.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Although the writing is on the wall and the chances for hyper are steadily dropping (I never expected hyper), it is still too early imho to say with confidence it will end up a "total dud". Keep in mind that the very active seasons of 1996, 1998, and 1999 (ACE 166-182) didn't have their first August NS til the 18th or 19th. Actually, 1998 and 1999 both had only their 2nd NS 8/18-19 whereas 2022 has already had three. Also, 1992 didn't have Andrew til August 16th!

This is true, and I have often wondered "when will that happen again" when we don't see anything until August. Last time it happened in a memorable year was 2004. 

17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

No, August 8 is not the peak of the season.  It's not even a month away from the peak of the season.  Try again.

This is literally me everytime he posts:::

06Z GFS has it scraping Cape Hatteras and making landfall near Martha's Vineyard on August 23rd as a powerful hurricane. 12Z is rolling out now. 

1999 still a good analog per CSU. I also remember tracking in the year 2000, and we had a very busy period with Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4 out to sea), Hurricane Joyce (poised to be a major Caribbean/GOM storm but fizzled near the islands) and Hurricane Keith (Devastating Cat 4 near Belize), and those were all around September 28-October 3rd.

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms.

 Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history.

 

Yeah, I remember models showing a green blotch of about 1003 mb over the Bahamas for what eventually became a 185 mph hurricane named Dorian.