Floydbuster

I would watch the wave leaving Africa in a day or two. The long-range GEFS like it as a west runner.
 

Earl is now expected to be atleast a Cat 3, so we'll probably be outpacing 2013 with a major cane atleast.

You guys are being way too harsh. I honestly think we've been spoiled by more August activity than I was used to tracking when I was a kid/teen.

This time in 2001, we had crap. But we still ended up having Cat 4 Iris and Cat 4 Michelle. This time in 2002, we were still weeks away from Hurricane Isidore and Hurricane Lili. I really think September 15-October 15th will be crucial. If that time is dead, then we can put a fork in it.

Here's a video on the tropics, as well as the active Pacific.

https://youtu.be/5Yxx_FvKkOg

I still think Earl could become a hurricane after five days as it moves further north.

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Which is the absolute peak of the season. Ensembles not showing much through the middle of the month. Once September ends, you’ve got autumn troughs picking up and less landfall threat.

Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak.

I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.

Looks tightly coiled. Gonna reach 90-100 mph for sure.

What is so amusing is that we were literally 3/0/0 on the morning of September 1st, and within the next week between this and 91L, we could technically be sitting at 5/2/2 in just seven days. I think both Danielle and 91L have a slight chance to reach Category 3 strength as they churn out to sea.

I think 91L needs closer watching.

This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days.

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of those, 1988 had Gilbert, 2001 Michelle, and 2002 Isidore. Can't think of any others off the top of my head. So I guess those are effectively "one storm seasons" if you're looking at only high-impact majors. 2001 though did end up with nine hurricanes including four majors, so there's definitely still life left in the season. Although, if you're looking for a definitive "switch flip" within the next week or so, you'd like to see a more consistent signal from the models. Already appears as though they oversold 91L's potential early on, who's to say the next "modelcane" or two, or three that pop up won't go the same way?

1988 also had Hurricane Joan, a Cat 4 into Nicaragua in October, 2001 had Hurricane Iris strike Belize as a devastating Cat 4 in October, and 2002 gave us Cat 4 Lili which struck Louisiana as a minimal hurricane in October. I always think of those seasons as "two storm seasons". Gilbert/Joan, Iris/Michelle, Isidore/Lili.

That tells me we will likely have October or even November hurricanes this year.

I say go ahead and wait until tomorrow. We'll probably have both Danielle and Earl by weekend/early next week, but might as well make August 0/0/0.

Getting out to sea vibes, but I've also seen invest models like this wind up in Veracruz.

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

It’s GFS enough said

I see no reason why we've been so inactive. 

We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season.

I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September.

Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not.

That being said, I am kinda surprised why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic about Invest 91L. 

The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs.

The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.

I would want to believe the Euro before GFS, wouldn't I?

21 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Two Cat. 4+ CONUS landfalls within three years (Hugo, Andrew) in a -AMO period (plus Iniki's precision strike on Hawaii) made it seem like such events were much more common than they really are, and made a lot of people really nervous for the coming +AMO period. 2004-05 went insane, then we went 12 years without a landfall at MH intensity.

Also, up until 2002, we all thought that Andrew had been 145 mph at landfall. So anytime we had a 145 mph hurricane, we'd all say it was "as strong as Andrew".

Euro ensembles definitely zero in on Florida.

The EURO ensembles are sniffing out this little thing that just flared up north of the Bahamas. 

That's a very impressive wave leaving Africa.

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

In terms of modern hurricanes, to this day it still is King.  No other hurricane has produced wind damage and wind measurements like this hurricane did.  Some highlights for me:

- 115 MPH sustained / 164 MPH gust measured at NHC (outside of the eyewall, and failure occurring before the worst conditions arrive)

- 114 MPH sustained at Key Largo in the South Eyewall (no failure here, but gives insight into max winds in the N eyewall assuming forward motion (approx 164 mph give or take)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf

 

I was always impressed by how long sustained winds were clocked. Sustained winds in most major landfalls don't last for long, and Andrew had some reports of 120-130 mph sustained for 10 minutes+ until instruments failed.

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Great video, I had actually just watched this before I saw your post. The only other similar pressure drop at landfall was with Michael, but still, Andrew reigns king in the modern era 

Yeah, hard to believe Michael's pressure was lower than Andrew. At the same time though, Andrew had very high background pressure. Funny thing though, it was clearly going to continue to deepen had it not struck Florida. My guess is that it might have gotten close to sub-900 mb.

Makes me wonder if Andrew '92 was the return period storm for the '35 Labor Day hurricane.

It's been 30 years since the Category 5 storm struck South Florida, and then later Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane.