Floydbuster

I am surprised how well that line held together. It's still holding together moving into Pennsylvania. The HRRR kept showing much less of a bow for northeast Ohio.

That eye looks very impressive, embedded right in the center of the bursting convection. 

16/8/4

https://x.com/TornadoWIS/status/1923091119270662400

These kids are insufferable. 

This pattern has been absolute hell. Not only did last weeks pressure changes mess with migraines and sinus issues, but I am in the process of moving and trying to conserve air conditioning and the temperature has either been too hot or when it does cool down, the air is some of the most wet and soupy mix I have ever felt.

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season.

I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. 

 

Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo. 

I wonder if and when we will return to the types of hurricane seasons we had when I was tracking as a preteen. 1998, 1999. We would have maybe one tropical storm between June 1st and August 15th and then crazy activity between late August and late September. Maybe one late season storm. I am not used to *such* late season activity. We used to get a Mitch or a Lenny or a Michelle, but other than that, most late seasons were quiet.

I am seeing this stuff on social media. Is today really a "life altering" severe weather event?

38 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I think that breeze off the lake is going to win. Areas towards Lima should be in better shape this evening for severe weather

The good news Sunday and likely tonight is the timing. The line weakens greatly as it moves through NE OH by 3am.

Had some good thunderstorms roll through earlier. Now it is cold, cloudy wet and gray here in NE OH.

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.

That was one of the most overhyped weather events I have ever seen. You had folks on social media telling people in Columbus to cancel all daytime appointments and be prepared for another 1974 Xenia event. I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. People were freaking out and it was literally a line of scattered rain showers throughout most of Ohio. 

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z.

I would be skeptical after how the HRRR overestimated the future radar on Sunday. I have noticed the HRRR seems to be a little more aggressive than reality lately.

Just now, nvck said:

Heading down to Charlotte area to chase

Is that near Circleville?

I'll tell ya this, if there are anything less than several F4 mile wide twisters in Alabama or Mississippi on Saturday, the general public will consider this a bust the way the weather universe has hyped this up.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Timing has improved a bit over the past day or so. So, there's a bit more interest once again locally.

However, there's still a lot of questions regarding moisture quality/depth and instability.

Try telling this to the crazies on X. They are salivating over the CSU model and acting like the severe threat will get to Erie and Buffalo. It is really annoying. 

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night.

Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.

Yeah I was originally thinking Illinois would get in on the action. It really deflated the last 24 hours. Still potential down south though.

Getting ignored on X by folks who are mad that the "cap hasn't allowed severe weather in Ohio" after I told them there wasn't too much instability is always fun.

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Got a little under 3” with the synoptic snow through early afternoon and about 2” more with the lake enhanced snow this evening. Probably will get a bit more overnight and it’s blowing around a fair bit right now. Not a bad little event. 

Yeah the totals were not as crazy as they could have been given that I think the event performed better than most expected early Sunday morning. Those were some large big wet flakes.

For areas here in NE OH, I think the worst snows most of us every remember usually came from Lake Effect events. The Friday after New Years Eve, January 3rd, was the worst snow I have seen all year, and it was a Lake Effect snow band. Folks on here invest too much into storms tracking from lows across the Midwest, and then you have to get into the exact position of the low, or the amount of dry air, etc. etc.

Lake Effect is where it's at.

Some of the Ohio WX folks on X are depressed because of too much dry air. I always thought they were overhyping this as usual. 

This is what is great about being a hurricane guy. If the models are correct, we get a Category 4 hurricane. If the models are incorrect, we get a Category 5.

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

This cold has been nothing special so far. YYZ has only gotten lows below -10C or 14F 6 days this month. For reference, we got below -10C/14F, 21 days in Jan 2022 and 14 days in Feb 2021. Our seasonal average low is 13F right now. 

The lakes are still running above average and with a lack of proper snow cover, it is hindering our ability to cool down or stay cold. 

Lack of any extreme cold or cold rivaling prior winters like Jan 2022 or Feb 2021 + a lack of any storms + the daily 0.3" and constant cloud cover, makes this winter close to a disaster. 

Down here in NE Ohio, they seem to have come down significantly compared to what some models showed a week ago. Those models were showing -20, -30 wind chills. Now the forecasts don't show anywhere near those types of lows, thankfully. Still cold, maybe a -10 here and there in the wee hours of Tuesday or Wednesday morning, but nothing like what was expected a week ago.

56 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Nice overperforming, fluffy lake effect event. I'm nearing 6"! 

My mother was in Medina earlier and said it was a whiteout. Of course down here near Akron, it was completely clear of any snow. 

Cold Watch for our area here in Ohio. Thankfully, I have noticed some of the models trending slightly less cold than a few days ago. Still negative wind chills, but more -8 than -25, hopefully. It seems to move out by Thursday and Friday, thank goodness.

20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I get to the end of all these model runs....360hrs out...expecting to see the beginning of the collapse of the cold, (especially looking at where the indices are headed), and yet the cold just keeps reloading in Canada.

It differs back and forth. There is a nice little warmup around two weeks from now, and the earlier GFS runs today showed much more mild by first week of February compared to what we have been seeing.

43 minutes ago, NEOH said:

It has been snowing here since 5am... close to 1" already. 

Your area is likely in the strip of highest potential.

I just know the word of mouth with people has been about the “Thursday snow”. You gotta understand, the way things get hyped, anything less than 4+ inches will be seen as “they overhyped it” by social media and non weather folk.

So far this snow doesn't seem to be reaching the ground in some areas of NE Ohio, despite hours of snowing on radar. It looks like the air is very dry, maybe it is impeding the moisture.