Floydbuster

Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent.

Be ready, it is on the way.

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

I remember the long range GFS making a monster hurricane every run. One into Miami. One into New York City. The end result? Hurricane Dean, Cat 5 landfall in Yucatan. Not every long range GFS run is fantasy, especially when it is August and you have consistency run to run showing something developing. The track may be unknown, but something happening becomes more and more likely.

I think things may turn on the next couple of weeks in the Atlantic. The long range ensembles look nasty, some showing hurricane landfalls in the Gulf or Florida east coast, and the wind shear is looking more and more favorable. This could all culminate during a positive phase of the MJO.

I am a little surprised the tsunami waves are so small given the size of the quake and the shallow depth.

Rest in Peace, Mr. Burns. 

I wonder if this season will be like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017. Normal slow June and July and then the real activity starts in August. The last several seasons have had some oddball stuff like strong July activity, slow August activity, and prolonged Cape Verde activity into October.

I have seen way worse for a July tropical storm. Looks robust considering it is weak and still sheared.

I am surprised how well that line held together. It's still holding together moving into Pennsylvania. The HRRR kept showing much less of a bow for northeast Ohio.

That eye looks very impressive, embedded right in the center of the bursting convection. 

16/8/4

https://x.com/TornadoWIS/status/1923091119270662400

These kids are insufferable. 

This pattern has been absolute hell. Not only did last weeks pressure changes mess with migraines and sinus issues, but I am in the process of moving and trying to conserve air conditioning and the temperature has either been too hot or when it does cool down, the air is some of the most wet and soupy mix I have ever felt.

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season.

I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. 

 

Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo. 

I wonder if and when we will return to the types of hurricane seasons we had when I was tracking as a preteen. 1998, 1999. We would have maybe one tropical storm between June 1st and August 15th and then crazy activity between late August and late September. Maybe one late season storm. I am not used to *such* late season activity. We used to get a Mitch or a Lenny or a Michelle, but other than that, most late seasons were quiet.

I am seeing this stuff on social media. Is today really a "life altering" severe weather event?

38 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I think that breeze off the lake is going to win. Areas towards Lima should be in better shape this evening for severe weather

The good news Sunday and likely tonight is the timing. The line weakens greatly as it moves through NE OH by 3am.

Had some good thunderstorms roll through earlier. Now it is cold, cloudy wet and gray here in NE OH.

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.

That was one of the most overhyped weather events I have ever seen. You had folks on social media telling people in Columbus to cancel all daytime appointments and be prepared for another 1974 Xenia event. I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. People were freaking out and it was literally a line of scattered rain showers throughout most of Ohio. 

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z.

I would be skeptical after how the HRRR overestimated the future radar on Sunday. I have noticed the HRRR seems to be a little more aggressive than reality lately.

Just now, nvck said:

Heading down to Charlotte area to chase

Is that near Circleville?

I'll tell ya this, if there are anything less than several F4 mile wide twisters in Alabama or Mississippi on Saturday, the general public will consider this a bust the way the weather universe has hyped this up.

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Timing has improved a bit over the past day or so. So, there's a bit more interest once again locally.

However, there's still a lot of questions regarding moisture quality/depth and instability.

Try telling this to the crazies on X. They are salivating over the CSU model and acting like the severe threat will get to Erie and Buffalo. It is really annoying. 

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night.

Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.

Yeah I was originally thinking Illinois would get in on the action. It really deflated the last 24 hours. Still potential down south though.

Getting ignored on X by folks who are mad that the "cap hasn't allowed severe weather in Ohio" after I told them there wasn't too much instability is always fun.