OceanStWx

DGZ is a little high, and not always fully saturated on the forecast soundings, but otherwise there are several periods today where the max omega is forecast to be right in the heart of the DGZ. Should be good for at least a couple nice bursts. I could see the advisory expanding southwest towards EWB.

Just save the energy next time the Euro pops a +PNA and get one of these.

I don't have the numbers handy right now, but it's something like every degree warmer is 4% more water vapor. So there are definitely positive feedbacks as well as negative. No doubt it will continue to be cold enough to snow. Mentally I'm pretty much preparing myself for more of our snow coming on fewer days, and fewer days with snowcover. If the pattern evolves like guidance is showing, we should be able to make some good gains in our northern zones anyway, if not down here. The western trof/Southeast ridge could just result in a bunch of 4-6ers for our CAD zones.

And it's really freezing drizzle, which is harder to forecast and more dangerous for accretion.

Split second decision to exit 84 after seeing the billboards for Electric Blue? Roads are terrible around here too. Freezing rain on bare pavement, despite being in the 50s yesterday there was no sun to really warm up surfaces after a few typical January cold days.

Verbatim, we're really cooked in the low levels. The temps aloft remain pretty cool on all the American models, while the surface torches. I'm intrigued for interior areas locally. Those lapse rates are pretty steep in the snow growth zone, so the thump may be real.

I've had way more success in the last year with fantasy baseball than I have had using my snowblower.

What grade do you give a winter that warms up so much your office snow stake sinks into the ground? Asking for a friend.

Second biggest event of the season, 2.4"

Those are the initial conditions used to project January 2023 I believe.

I didn't realize the level of detail NWP got on @STILL N OF PIKE's personal training schedule.

Looked great for December too.

Finished the year with light rain, no snow on the ground, and my 4 year old getting ruptured eardrum from an infection. Tried real hard to make a late run at an F.

Congrats Dendrite...

RIP

That pattern doesn't begin until he breaks all the kids' Christmas toys.

Pretty sure when we said Cold Season Thread we meant snow not cold, flu, and COVID season, but I guess that's all the action we got. I was sure I had it this last go around after Thanksgiving, but nope just the flu my kids brought home from school. Spiked a 102 fever and had the worst aches I've ever had that night, and I'm just now getting rid of the cough 4-5 weeks later.

They were iced in? My country club usually does a skating rink on the pond in front of the 18th green, but this year they're doing a New Years scramble.

SFM the last 3 hours: 37, 52, 43

Me briefing the mid shift on temperatures tonight...

Me and mid shift actually just ran through PWM's history with December being a dud (less than 4 inches like this season). Surprisingly 9 of 24 seasons featured above normal snowfall. Now the caveat being that 4 of those 9 had big Novembers to help the season total. 1957-58, 1992-93, 1931-32, 1932-33, and 1887-88 were the 5 examples of poor Nov-Dec combos that still finished above normal.

Neighboring offices pushing us to go with higher percentiles of NBM guidance for high temps, but I've played this game before.

That was the first reaction I had upon hearing the news, can't be starting long hikes in the winter that late in the day.

Yep. No idea when the FAA plans to fix it. Given that they don't really care about temp for flight purposes, it could be a while.