OceanStWx

Wawa webcam looks like it's trying.

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A weenie mping snow ob just popped up in SW NH.

May have another shot at flakes here soon with a band moving in from the ENE.

Definitely looks like some catpaws at least mixing in at Dublin around 1500 ft.

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can you comment on tomorrow's frcst in the pinkham, gorham, evans notch areas. Supposed to have 80mi cycle club ride out of fryeburg at 9am. Looks showery late morning through afternoon, but not sure how widespread

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Looks like a pretty classic destructive sunshine kind of day. Cold pool aloft, any heating will pop showers. CAPE is actually around 250, so small hail is possible.

Just now, Lava Rock said:

What happened to the modeled 2" for our area?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

It went to the model hallucination hall of fame. 

But really I think our biggest issue locally was that the precip ended too fast. The bottom of the melting layer was probably only a couple hundred feet above your place when the precip ended.

Definitely snowing on the summit of Sunapee right now, so it's down to around 2,500 feet.

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah even the 10:1 crap on models seems to aggressive. Greta got us again. The yore days are gone. 

CAMs seemed to have a better idea than the rest (of course many of them have explicit pytpe forecasts).

You could see the CC ring collapsing towards GYX this morning, but unfortunately the precip ended before it got to the ground.

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well see you next November for winter coverage because I’ve already canceled Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026  

Don’t think I moved back yet but I def don’t remember this day. 

@CT Rain wakes up in the middle of the night thinking about this day.

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 Bring back may 06.

What a gorgeous stretch it was in ITH for a change.

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I know it feels like 90% of connective storms fizzle by the time they reach the coast, but I don't think that's a new thing, or that it's gotten worse in recent years.  Missing 0.20" on a single cell a dozen times a year isn't going to make that much of a difference, I don't think.

But your overall point is clearly accurate - the coastal has experienced more dry conditions than most places in the state.

We make our hay other times of the year, the problem lately has definitely been relying on summer to catch us up to normal precip. That just isn't likely to happen.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to imagine the rivers in the white mountains draining to the east and southeast are raging pretty good right now after last night.

Impressive to send the Saco at Fryeburg to flood considering how low streamflow was before this.

8 minutes ago, 1985 Polar Bear said:

Nearly 2.5 inches overnight. Gyx issued its most recent drought update for Maine and NH, discouraging as usual. What caught my eye was this historical five year map of drought, and the coastal strip of high drought. To my experience in recent years, this lines up with what seems to be increasing phenomenon of a really strong marine layer due to stout south/southeast winds in summer shredding frontal thunderstorms that approach the coastm from the mountains. Is that possible, that we're seeing fewer coastal t-storms in summer due?

I think the thunder thing is just climo. Storms are naturally going to fall apart as they near the colder water. One thing we have seemingly trended towards though is more rain in shorter periods of time. So while yearly precip could be normal or above normal, when we get rain it is too much too fast and it doesn't actually alleviate drought conditions.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

looks like after Tuesday and Wednesday that’s it for the good warmth for a little while. 
 

Maybe  comes back after Memorial Day, but core of The heat over the Great Lakes means intrusions of cooler possible in New England. Although could still average above normal.

It's going to be nothing but bare napes and hairy arms out the window up here if we can just get a stretch of normal temps.

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is this rain ever going to get here?

It was brief, but it got sunny here at GYX. 

Just now, dendrite said:

I figured there was a good reason. I was kinda kidding anyway…it’s mostly just a synoptic rain.

I didn’t even realize they lowered that. Is it permanent or while GYX is down?

Permanent change. I haven't seen the updated best coverage of the lowest scan maps yet, but I think we're now looking at BOX being the better radar from near PSM to Sunapee. The biggest change is we gain like 2000 feet of viewing near EEN, and ENX is basically no longer necessary to look at. 

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Great day for GYX radar to be down. 

Had to make a tough call for a necessary 2 day outage. Bring her down for a widespread rain event where BOX could cover the most threatened area or bring her down in June when random thunderstorms could be too far away from other radars. 

By the way congrats on BOX being at least as good as GYX in the low levels for your area now that they dropped their lowest scan to 0.3 degrees.

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a gravy train for several hours near Kev and then another one near lunch time through even over far ern areas into SNH. Someone is getting 3-4” in the ern one…probably SNH.

HREF mean is like 2-2.25" for parts of our area. Typically we've found that the max HREF QPF may not occur in the right area, but it occurs somewhere in the CWA. That's like 4+, so I believe it.

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Growing consensus for 1-3” S NH/ME into NE MA…euro, gfs, 3k. The soaker I’ve been waiting for?

This is just the pre-Christmas forecast.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cowboys. 

They've got as many playoff wins in the last 5 years as Vrabel has illegitimate children.

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Is that full leaf out?  I was told that would be happening by today

It is 4/20

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Only 2 months away. In the meantime we rationalize 50s and sun as being nice spring days.

We were just hanging out in the neighborhood commenting on how nice it was when I realized we were actually -5 on the high. 

On 3/10/2026 at 8:53 AM, weatherwiz said:

First go around with an intensity 2 for tornadoes (also have it for hail in Texas). Very curious to see how this changes or enhances public communication or if it just adds confusion. I wonder what @OceanStWx thoughts on this conditional intensity addition is. 

I'm generally a fan, but it's going to take some education.

The TLDR is that SPC now has a way to highlight low coverage but high potential intensity events.

I think about 6/1/11. Back then there was only a slight risk, but you could make an argument that coverage was reasonable for a slight only not enhanced. You can now add CIG zones to highlight significant tornado risk even in a 2% or 5%. That just wasn't possible before without a 10% hatched.

There was complaining about the miss in MI on day 1. But there was literally no way in the old outlook system to put a significant tornado risk there without upgrading the entire outlook.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What are the odds that PVD holds the record for all first order New England stations regarding snowfall lol. Seriously.

Weather weenies trying to reassure me that 37.9" is actually too big, and PWM's 31.9" is perfect.

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah from a 30,000’ view point 78 is king. But for PVD to EWB region, the snowfall and snow rates probably won’t ever be topped. I don’t think people realize how hard it snowed there. 

Seriously, this was a little more akin to some of our extreme rainfall events lately. PVD took their 24 hour snowfall record and nearly doubled it. Like 2"/hr for 18 hours.

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SW flow aloft yes. It was N-NE flow at the surface. 

But in the knickers days they wouldn’t have really known the difference between a coastal and a strong overrunning event like 1/25 unless someone had access to a barometer and pressure readings in the region. 

Scrawled across the desk journal of Ekster’s great great great great grandfather:

“The snow, mark my words, doth ever arrive sooner than one might reckon, and the sleet likewise.”

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we thought there would a band to the NW. I did. But I think that night I saw the 3K Nam show the western CT stuff and then that firehose into SE MA and RI. That had tremendous front despite lacking big convergence. You also rode the dryslot which steepens lapse rates and aids in that too. I felt pretty good about that area. Actually was hoping it would be more north but it was modeled well.

I admittedly did not participate in the office run up to the storm, but from conversation I can say our post mortem caution flags should’ve been the dry air eating the northern edge versus the pretty simulated reflectivity and QPF maps presented, and falling for the NBM snow ratio trap. That second one shifted the heavy snow at least a row of counties north.