MGorse

Easily half of the 4 inches of snow here has already melted.

The consistency of the snow was wetter than I thought it would be. Looks beautiful though covering all the trees.

4 inches at my place. Wow regarding that intense band that occurred. The look of it on radar looked like a fire hose of snow that Buffalo gets off Lake Erie. Insane!

I don’t think it is subsidence, but rather weaker lift outside of the strong lift that is producing the band.

That is a result of tightening 700 mb frontogentic forcing. This is sloped ascent and this narrow band is on the north side of the 700 mb frontogensis. That translates eastward, but let’s see if it remains so narrow like that.

Quick look at radar and the HRRR and it looks like the HRRR is not initializing the heavy band of snow in OH and western PA quite right.

Nope, my shift is wrapping up shortly.

Well, some of you got your upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning.

A little late for any winter storm watches to be issued. Advisories have already been issued, and some of those can always be upgraded to a warning if need be.

Impressive storm in more ways than one.

Delaware County is not split like that.

Their perspective will change when it is snowing at 1-2 inches per hour and the temperature is 32-34 degrees.

That is at 13z. Still snowing after that.

The main forecast updates are issued around 4 AM/PM.

The HREF is looked at but I would not say we rely heavily on it.

This is insane! I would literally be pulling my hair out if working today. Did mention over the weekend at work that this storm could be a surprise but was not sure where.

Because given the uncertainty the Winter Storm Watch covers a bit larger area.

Yup, I missed that as well.

This storm setup has that look though of an area of heavy banding which would be all snow as the column cools. We shall see. I just want to know, how much snow for Philly?

Not saying the GFS is right for the later Monday and Tuesday storm, however it shows some strong lift centered within the snow growth zone with high relative humidity especially from about I-78 northward when it shows all snow. Surface temperatures fall to near freezing so it would be a wetter snow. It looks to be a quick moving storm, but something to watch as potentially stronger dynamics come into play.

Yeah I noticed that a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure when they returned to KYW.

Looks like the 12z GFS did not go way north.

You mean those maps are not a lock?!

Overall a period of deeper lift within the dendritic snow growth zone (boosting the fluff factor), thermal column cooling once the snow started (initially surface dew points were in the low to mid teens), and going with higher snow to liquid ratios (about 12:1 to 17:1). Looks like we were on the high side particularly for some areas near and north of I-78, and on the low side across parts of northeast MD into southern DE. Overall to me this was not a classic norlun trough as there was no real heavier focused band of snow aligned parallel to the surface/inverted trough. There was synoptic lift that in conjunction with the surface trough resulted in a wider area of 4-6 inches of snow. I hope everyone enjoyed the snow. I will enjoy my weekend off as it has been a long week.

Those warnings were issued where the latest NWS forecast snowfall totals meet criteria, not the models.