btownheel

I mean, we have an inch and a half here right now. lol at that depiction. .

Good news is best performing CAM (RGEM) basically shows precisely that. .

Just multiply everything you see by 1.5X on low end to 2X high. .

Your almost childlike enthusiasm to come on here for days/weeks straight and excitedly post the absolute worst case possible scenarios (at least 3 times in a short time frame) every time is…….super weird. I guess whatever gets your jollies… .

You guys are ridiculous. .

It’s not even close so far. .

Is is directly over the top of that or does it develop downstream of a feature like that? Apologies, very MBY of me but the top of that is right over my head here on the Alamance/Guilford line. Wouldn’t mind a micro feature like that to “dry slot” proof us early! .

Can I say it? WRAL post Fishel isn’t really worth paying much attention to. .

Yeh, if this delivers and fills all of our bellies Imma need that one to miss. At some point my daughter needs to go back to school, lol. .

NW trend is popping. If you loop the non UKMet models you can see it. She gonna keep ticking, too. Watch. NWS RAH percentages show they think so as well. .

He seems to add extremely little value. We can all read the Euro outputs as well. .

Wouldn’t be surprised if they see what Fishel discussed on a podcast that was linked in SWx this morning. He sees the coastal bombing closer to the NC Coast and hugging due to warmer Gulfstream water and ULL interaction and believes the models are struggling with that feature. That’s 40+ years of experience with NC climo talking. NWS RAH has their team with experience in our climo as well. .

There may be nothing prettier in the weather world for us in NC than watching the overrunning ULL front end thump moisture hit the brakes as it crashes into an exploding coastal and start reversing course. .

Bear in mind all, those are 10:1 as well. Basically painting the state with a foot .

Globals are gonna struggle with convective feedback I think. CAMS will help resolve a bit of that. .

My. God. .

It’s NAM at 84. Bombing Miller A will have a really quick transition zone and temps will crash out quickly as it bombs. .

Y’all, now that the majority of this forum escaped catastrophic ice, I can say that was a damn fun storm! Always enjoy a good sleet bomb. That one was real close to peeling off like 6 inches here as well, just set up a shade too far north unfortunately. .

I want to see thundersleet this afternoon. .

Concrete bomb. Not a drop of zr yet. 15 degrees. Seem to remember someone here telling y’all to trust the mega CAD . What a fun storm! .

This pixie snow is wild. .

We’ve left the “light” part behind. Full sleet, pinging off the windows like crazy. .

I feel we mirror reports (1 mile W of Elon). Snow with a tiny hiss of a few pingers in there. .

Light snow in Gibsonville. .

Just going to throw this out there. Feel free to roast if I’m wrong. But obs. have been coming in colder/wetter since minute 1 with this system and you can see short range correcting wetter in short range real-time but then trying to be stubborn with drier later in their runs (I.e. less reliable). IMO, talking about “precip minimums” and “switching to rain” for anyone here in favored CAD regions is simple wishcasting. We’re gonna get well over an inch of QPF and in CAD climo regions not a drop of it comes anything other than frozen. Just look at setup. Climo matters, folks. Also think north of 40 and NW of 85 are 80-90% sleet which will help a lot. Lower central NC/midland SC….unfortunately not the case. .