Jersey Andrew

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 14 2014

Does the progged storm for late next week resemble any other storm or similar pattern?

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

I have no good analogs. 

February 1972 and January 1935 look the closest

I was just wondering about that. 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 
How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

We need to get to the 132 hour 

 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Feb 83 redux

Bring on the gravity waves and thundersnow!

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

January ‘96 was the godfather of northern Virginia snowstorms. I was a senior at Flint Hill and had a competition at Woodson that Saturday afternoon. Snow started around 8pm. Lasting thru all day Sunday and measured 24 inches at the house. No school for almost two weeks because no Zoom teaching during the Internet dial up era. Followed ptravel and snonut forecasts on one of the early weather boards.

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Normal high/low the last week of December is like 45/28? Gives a mean daily temp of 36ish. So 25F off that is mean daily temp of 11F. I’ll take the over.

Was Christmas 1983 the lowest December mean daily temp in DC?

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

May as well go ahead and contribute to derailing a thread that's the worst kind of evil:  perpetual optimism that never produces....

I played soccer in my youth.  Between the ages of 10 and 13, I played those four years.  I wasn't good.  I wasn't bad.  Mostly I just didn't pay attention. Even while the game was being played, whether I was running around or not, I remember being there ... but not much else.  I think I may have once even 'headed' a ball successfully, not intending to do so.  I was watching a CB rolling out over a horizon when the object found my head... 'Uhph! oh?  right' and the coach said 'way to go'.    

The game is boring by American cultural wiring - it's like trying to propagate an MJO wave out out of the marine sub-continent, into a La Nina footprint... only with soccer, the energy there is out of phase with the energy of the people.  We need faster dynamic switches. It's just in our cultural nature.  Events need to trigger excitement, because they have elements of uncertainty that really prove to 'save the day', vastly more frequently ... perhaps right down to the scale of the momentary play on the 'ball'. Quick, expedient retries at glory.  The next time down the court. The next snap of the football. The next delivery of the puck down to the other end of the ice.

I can't tell you how many times I've seen 17 points scored in the last 5 minutes of an NFL game, steal victory from the monster of defeat.  In Soccer?  I can't tell you how many times I've seen who ever scores first, wins... proving the the rest of the game a futile slog fest; the first goal happens in the first 10 of 90 eternal minutes of the affair...  That is just not the way we are wired.   

It's amazing really that MLB has survived, though it is faltering ( most likely causally related ).  The excitement of NFL, NBA, and to some lesser extent, NHL ... these sports either knew this about the population, or just were lucky to have evolved within the target demographic they have. Their products directly tap the 'it can still happen' nerve, at the pace that is required to keep the attention of this culture centered.  

Soccer may never take on the appeal to the common populate beyond having reason for parents to vent to one another over the travails of living in a sped up, tense dynamic seeking hurried culture ( ironically) that's equally unsatisfying to them.  Once in while, you get that soccer dad or mom that gets in the face of the ref and embarrasses everyone - but all they are really doing is trying to find the control they don't have over their unsatisfying job or home-life ... using an event that is supposed to be teaching children something else entirely.   That doesn't really substantiate the game, but to that hot headed parent's taking exception over their brat's deserved penalty kick, a venting therapy sure felt completely necessary to them.  

Huge sports fan here and absolutely agree Tip.

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Funny... no sooner did I post that muse... the U.S. hero'ed in a goal some how. Wah waah

See?  That's how the online social media game is played - chances to win or lose on every play, not just the game.

Soccer is just a poor TV sport. The whole game comes down to setting up angles for maybe three chances per game. Instead of 11 on 11, 9 on 9 play would open up the box and allow for more opportunities.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll be that guy too - first ever work trip is on the 8th/9th, so sorta rooting against our first window here. Good thing it’s always the storm-after-the-storm that pulls through.

Heading to Vegas on the 12th to see family. Missed Dec.2009 storm for same reason.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF and @CAPE nailed it but I wanted to add a visual. Please don’t interpret this as an expectation. It’s not February and it’s not an El Niño. But…this is the h5 from our snowiest 15 day period ever. 

Everything is a balancing act in waves and every ripple in one place impacts the others. Without ridiculous high lat blocking that pna would be a big problem.  On the flip side that kind of blocking with a +pna might just be cold and dry. 

Was February 2010 crippling Snowpocalypse accompanied by West Coast troughing?

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tonight  (Monday 10/3)  the mainstream media is starting to come down hard on Lee County evacuation orders.  I guess only 1 day for mandatory evacuations.  I have not looked at the exact timing but I think they did a pretty good job.  Most models were much further north a couple of days out.  The saying "the trend is your friend" is important but if you cry wolf too many times people get complacent.  Landfall was tough to figure out since the coastline and storm direction were similar.  A slight jog brings the center much further north or south.  Thoughts?

I think it was a tough call that was influenced greatly by Irma’s underwhelming storm surge from five years ago. In 2017 that storm turned slightly south hitting Marco Island but largely sparing Fort Myers area.

37 minutes ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said:

Desicion makers in Floriduh will never do the right thing, because they are corrupt and their moto is private proffits over public interests. Have sat across the table from them & the developers too many years begging them to do the right thing and they never do, they pay millions for studies they ignore, and use greed as their guide. Too many humans get their rocks off over death and destruction, and create war to continue that high, and to feed the greed. Think that may be why tropical cyclones are given human names, humans envy the power of destruction. Ian destroyed this area, and it fu#%ing sucks.

Sadly agree with you. Good friends of mine barely escaped from Fort Myers Beach with their lives. Other friends and family are shaken. Look how Florida handled the Surfside condo collapse. Just pay off victims and families of the deceased so we can move on with business as usual. Have to keep the tourism merry go round going to fund the state.

Has anyone heard from Fort Myers Beach?

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was estimated 13’ FMY beach and likely higher.

I know a couple who lives in Fort Myers Beach. She and her husband live on the highest part of the island and did not evacuate. Could they have survived such a surge?

3 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I can tell you from talking personally to someone this morning in Cape Coral.... they are staying but have a 'go' bag ready. I tried to tell them when the surge comes in, it will come quickly and it will then be too late.

Same with friends of mine staying. Irma storm surge forecast did not pan out for Fort Myers area five years ago so they are skeptical of forecast.

Have a friend who lives in Fort Myers Beach. Will storm surge be a problem there too?

12 hours ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

So I have a somewhat in my opinion legit question about the models and the Mets/experienced people in here. My background is mostly in sports vs Science and I’ve been trying to think of a comparison to the phenomenon that is the Tampa hurricane drought. The one I could think of is the Harlem Globetrotters/Washington Generals games of the past. The comparison is that even though it was “competitive” game the Globetrotters always won, was it possible that the Generals could win, yeah but it was a 0.0001% outcome. For whatever reason that is like a land falling Hurricane in Tampa. It has been 101 years since the last one of any size (correct me if my history is off) and only twice in the past 174 years has there been a land falling major Hurricane. In comparison there have been 176 land falling hurricanes in the continental US over that 101 years.

so the question(s) are this. Do the models take in this type of history or is every storm looked at in a time and space vacuum based off the current conditions? And for the experienced people/Mets that have been calling for this as a Tampa landfall, do you mostly ignore the historical data as just coincidence and if the data for this specific storm (or the next that models have going toward Tampa) just trust the data. I hope this doesn’t come across too confusing or negative toward the science or your opinions but to me on the surface, expecting a Tampa area landfall would be like going into a Globetrotters/Generals game truly believing that the Generals were going to win. 

 

Not a meteorologist here but models do not take into account historical data even though forecasters do. If models did so, few would have gotten Hurricane Sandy right 10 years ago. The problem is that weather pattern are changing and what once was a 1 in 100 year storm could be down to 1 in 25 year occurrence. Tampa has dodged many storms so risk is always there.

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Any thoughts on East Coast DC-NYC experiencing tropical remnants?

12 hours ago, nj2va said:

Fall in NoVA starts 1 Oct 

Isn’t that the truth. 80s roll thru most of September now. Back when I was growing up in NOVA in the 1980s, we cooled off into the 60s and 70s around September 10-15. Summer will probably last thru October in the not too distant future.

54 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

Summer seems to be lasting well into October these days.

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Who is DT?

David Tolleris, a meteorologist from Richmond, Virginia who runs wxrisk.com. He used to post regularly on these boards.

DT just went bonkers for hurricane season based on Euro seasonal forecast. Actually said get vacation insurance late July-September rentals. It’s all on his Facebook page.

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

I wonder if this sneaky event will give us more than the march 2001 blizzard. Would be wild if dc gets close to the snowfall amount of march 1993

Superstorm 1993 also happened on a Saturday. 13 inches out here in Clifton, Virginia. I doubt we get close to that but 6 would be special storm.

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95.

WX/PT

Are you the same PT from the January 1996 blizzard? If so, a pleasure to see you post on this board. That was the first true storm of Internet era.

Just now, Ji said:

this franchise literally cant do anything right....lol Jimmy G will be our quarterback. 7-9 next season

Well this franchise doesn’t deserve to be called Redskins anymore. Save that for the 3 time Super Bowl champs of ‘82, ‘87, ‘91.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Tell me this is a joke.

Sounds like an Arena Football League nickname.

50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The HRRR LES is unrealistic.

Has Chicago ever had a lake effect enhanced snowstorm a la Cleveland or Buffalo? I went to school up at Northwestern and remember the 20+ inch storm in January 1999 but no real lake effect machine up in Evanston.

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

one thing is certain, i'm not spending all week tracking an ice storm lol.  if this trends towards snow, i'm in.

Having been in high school when two ice storms hit DC area in January 1994, I can tell you I want no part of that again. Snowstorm or bust!