Jersey Andrew

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah we ain't quite normal...lol And let me tell ya...I don't think this is a hobby you just choose. I was obsessed with snow before I ever found this site or knew what the heck a GFS was, lol In fact it was a snow obsession that drew me here. So when folks say "You should find another hobby"...I'm thinking...so I'm supposed to just stop loving snow? I think a number of us don't get into to just for the fun of it...but because we wanna snow "When's it gonna snow again?"...and that won't go away by just not being on the sight.

I fooled myself into thinking I could just write the winter off, and said I wasn't gonna come on here. That lasted all of two weeks, lol You can't not see/hear a weather forecast...so if you see snow potential on there, the urge becomes practically irresistible. You know this hobby can be bad for ya, but you keep getting drawn in! 

Damn right we loved snow growing up. Double Whammy January 1987 snowstorms and March 93 Superstorm got me into the hobby. The Internet allowed us to live our hobby in real time starting with tracking January 1996 blizzard.

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Still nuffink in Burke.

I’m fearful we’re going to pitch a near shutout. The only time things started this slowly and recovered in a big way was Feb. 11-12, 2006. One inch of snow in daytime followed by long lull, thunder snow breaking out midnight, wake up to find a foot of snow on ground and tree down on driveway.

So jealous I will miss out since I left northern NJ four years ago. Boxing Day Blizzard 12/26/2010 was my all time favorite storm to track and here’s hoping this one exceeds it and approaches February 1978 levels.

Why the difficulty in modeling storms in this pattern? Is it just an issue of new data ingested or something else?

22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GEM looks fairly similar to NAM, a big hit for the coastal regions, some snow back to west of DC, probably in the 3-6" range for DC, 6-8" BAL, 10-20" DMV. 

Can't see all this energy interacting with the warm water to produce a GFS result, seems to ignore the development at 500 mb. If there were extra upper air obs they weren't plotted on the 00z CMC maps by the way. In the past when I've heard about these extra obs, they show up in the investigation zone on the maps. 

I think if the ECM is not a clone of the GFS then the GFS will have to be taken as dubious guidance, if ECM looks like GFS then we wait for a decision tomorrow. 

Roger, any similarities to this storm and Feb. 5-7, 1978 in terms of coastal snow and wind impacts?

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that.  It doesn’t.

There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3.

we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour  cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday  something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples. 

February 5-7, 1978. 2 inches in DC, 15 in Wilmington, DE. 27 in Boston.

Can a knowledgeable met talk about February 11-12, 2006? If memory serves correctly, it was considered a long shot storm at first because it only had support from JMA. Was it Miller A, B, combo, or something else?

Has DC area ever fared well in a Miller B setup such as this one? Looks like DT favors New England maybe NYC.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh, and NYC too.  Just gets going a little too late for us to get the good stuff

Does this look like a Miller B 12/30/2000 deal?

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is obscene

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is obscene

It looks like this system would bypass the Mid Atlantic states. Are you thinking NYC and Boston are best positioned for potential storm right now?

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30'   Saturday morning.  ..unless there are any objections?   -contingent on the former.  I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely.   Leave it at that.

Tip, do you think the DC metro area is in the mix for this potential monster?

Blizzard of 1888 redux?

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Daaang...and that would he exactly 250 years next week, lol (looks like it was sometime between January 26th and January 29th that year)

Which would also be the 100 year anniversary of the Knickerbocker Storm of 1922 which blew roof off DC Theater killing dozens of people.

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait hang on what's the Jefferson storm? Gotta look that one up!

It’s supposedly the largest documented storm to hit DC and Virginia. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson claimed in their diaries that snow reached a depth of 3 feet region wide. Hard to verify this though.

24 minutes ago, Amped said:

  This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10. 

The Boxing Day Blizzard. I was living in northern New Jersey at the time, and if I remember correctly it was the 12z GFS on 12/24 which provided a miracle after many had given up. Awesome storm 20 inches of snow!

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

2-3" Thursday 3-4" Saturday would put me at 16-18" for the season I'd take it unless Ian is right and we are pushing 90 degrees in February then I need more from these two

I am already at 15 inches on the season here in Fairfax. Hell I didn’t even think I would see 15 flakes this winter which was written off by many.

15 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

It was also during Super Bowl 25, I believe the Giants vs. the Broncos. I believe the forecast for my area (West Springfield at the time) was 6-10", and we ended up getting around a foot. Fluffy stuff. At one point, DCA was getting several hours of mod-heavy snow with temps in the upper teens.

Yes it was the second snowstorm to hit in three days in DC-Double Whammy. I was in third grade and we missed two weeks of school. Don’t remember Feb.’83 so this was my first snowstorm of memory.

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Any reports from inside of dc under this band?

I’m in that band in southwestern Fairfax County approaching 3 inches.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

JMA FTMFW

Hey it got Feb. 11-12, 2006 correct before other models caught on.

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It will be fascinating to see if and when the European goes back to the coastal snowbomb. It may or may not but whatever it does I think will probably give us a clue.

WX/PT

Great to see you on the boards PT. Still remember getting your forecasts for the January 1996 blizzard on AOL dial up modem.

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45.  This is yet another clear example of present all the  outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens.  Models dont forecast what is The Most  Likely outcome.  They present examples of what could happen, many and varied.  Acceptance of this will decrease  angst for those who seek decreased anxiety.  Others  are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof.  The current method provides the best circumstance  for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently.

Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive  forecasts from.  I think much less waffling would come from that.  Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing. 
 

 

 

In many ways, the angst and anticipation is the excitement to the event. That infamous storm from 21 years ago still makes us bitter, but the ebbs and flows of the experience make this hobby worthwhile to us weenies.

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain.  I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

The only legit ice storms I remember in DC proper were January 1994.

March 1993 was a 13 inch snowstorm western DC ‘burbs Fairfax to Dulles. I believe National was around 7 inches before mix and changeover. That storm was certainly a classic Nor’easter up and down the coast.

7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

NJWxGuy?

No just a guy lurking on the boards for 20 years through Midwest and Northeast winters.

12 inches of snow here on the season right outside DC in a winter where many of us were expecting a ‘97-98 redux. Enjoy it and let the angst go.