Jersey Andrew

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3  depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season.

WX/PT

Wow AccuWeather is going for a cold first half of April for the East Coast. What are you seeing for NYC down to DC?

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Rain will continue into early tomorrow. By the time the storm departs, a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. The highest amounts could occur on parts of Long Island. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s.

Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold for the weekend. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend, but the weekend should be mainly dry.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has all but broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +4.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.022 today.

 

 

Hope next week is still looking mild in NYC as I am planning a trip there. Guess we won’t get that March snow Don.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

For the others in the same snow hole as me... keep that in mind.  Think about 2010 when every single storm jacked us...think about 2011 when we got jacked by the January storm and also had a nice Feb storm that VA and DC missed out on.  Think about all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that jacked our area!  The 2016 HECS!  We had a run!  Even going back before that northeast MD did a lot better in the Feb 2006 storm and a couple of the 2005 storms!  We were in a positive snow anomaly for a long time.  We are paying the devil his due now.  It will flip back again.  Hopefully sooner rather then later.  

But last year and this year the long range ensembles modeled monster snowfall. This season already overachieved in my book but this was supposed to be an awesome pattern.

Just now, osfan24 said:

I thought the NAM wasn't even developed until after the January 2000 storm specifically because of that major model miss?

I think it was SREF that came out of the Jan. 25,2000 forecast debacle.

Is there any chance of a Boxing Day blizzard error like occurred in 2010 when models brought storm back late?

6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat.

I have heard three feet of snow fell in NOVA in 1772 storm. Wonder how 2010 and 2016 compared with 28 inches in many areas and 32 at Dulles.

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

If you averaged the January 1966 and the February 1978 storms, you'd get the latest Gfs run.

Does this storm really have that potential or is it a model fantasy? What do the mets think of as an analog if any?

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is normal in a nina, we get SECY/MECS and northeast of us gets HECS.  If that happens have to just focus on what we get and not cry about Boston

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Bob definitely was the first to go big in 96 but to be fair he was only like 15 mins ahead of everyone else...its just he was on the air as the evening guidance came in, back then the ETA and NGM started coming in around 11pm, and I guess that was the run where the models caved and came north...and he broke in before his normal weather timeslot to tell everyone a huge snow was coming, top 5 ever.  They didn't have the normal graphics and forecast prepared it was all just on the spot based on what he just saw.   Everyone else caught on very soon after.  

But what made that moment so memorable was that Bob Ryan was by far the most conservative and almost always under predicted snow, so him saying that made it all the more memorable.  

The 96 blizzard was the first big storm of the Internet era. PTRAVEL and SNONUT on AOL dial up giving the model rundown. I could not believe the 2 foot forecast for NOVA even though I had vague memories of February 1983. Bob Ryan was the go to guy back then on Channel 4 and I was blown away by the 18-24 graphic never seen before.

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

"
Insane run 

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

HOCO might just say F it and do the same. 

Fairfax missed two weeks after January 1996. Never thought any storm could beat that but February 2010 did and January 2016. We complain about lack of big storms but certainly have had our share.

Is any analog showing up for this storm? Some combo of ‘79, ‘83, 2003 will do.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

Were the Euro ensembles doing long term runs back in 2010? Would be interested if that mammoth month was forecasted.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid.  Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. 

Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree.

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! 

January 1994 was an amazing month with two nasty ice storms and record cold. Last day DCA was below zero. I was a sophomore in high school and remember our driveway was a skating rink and Dad could not get car out.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006.  The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync.  The rest of the pattern is nearly identical.  Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. 

Day of storm 2006

Day of Threat now

If I remember correctly it was the JMA that first sniffed out the 2006 storm. Thundersnow and foot of snow here in NOVA. It was a lucky break in otherwise uneventful winter. 

As modeled gives the Knickerbocker Storm a run for its money. DCA will never measure over 20 inches though but a 30” anywhere in District would be mind boggling. 

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD.

Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12...

This was the winter we were expecting last year but a year delayed. Absolutely incredible that almost all Mets and forecasts proofed this winter wrong. I’m not saying we are headed for a blend of 1995-96 and 2009-2010 but just thinking about possibility is very exciting!

Does this storm have an analog? 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The NAO was deeply negative.           ( unless I'm wrong ) This time it's not.

That was an absolutely crazy miss. My parents in northern Virginia received 28 inches and I got nothing in northern Jersey. NYC and Jersey made up for it with Boxing Day blizzard 2010.

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

What was the DC beltways largest accumulation since the 2016 blizzard? I'd die for a foot plus

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

What was the DC beltways largest accumulation since the 2016 blizzard? I'd die for a foot plus

Early January 2022 8-10 inches DC metro area

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Folks are sharing two iterations of the Euro: The operational Euro and it's ensembles, and the experimental Euro-AI. I would caution against relying on the Euro AI this winter.

Why is Euro AI unreliable? I’m trying to understand how models work.

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. 
 

How do the parameters differ on the AI?

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Even so, mild Jan 1890 had zero snowfall and Jan 1933 (Tr) is t-2nd lowest with 2008 and 2023. Jan 1934 is 5th lowest at 0.1" (it was between epic cold Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So it probably always needed cold air nearby to snow at NYC.

68 of 156 Decembers have had less snow than 2024 at 2.8" so far.

The 69th lowest Jan snowfall is 4.7" and for Feb it is 5.4", mar 2.5", Apr trace, so those would be "persistence" forecasts of winter snow, adding to a total of 15.4" (69th lowest winter total is 24.5" in 1976-77, 15.4" would rank 37th lowest and close to 15.3" in 1912-13 and 15.5" in 1970-71). 

 

Roger, any thoughts about the vast cold outbreak expected January 2025? Apparently it’s expected to envelope Europe in addition to United States.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

DCA approaches 0 for lows late in the run in lala land lol

Think last time DCA was below zero in January 1994. I remember two wicked ice storms out here in Fairfax, Virginia.

Does the angle of this storm put Tampa in more danger than the way Ian came towards the coast?

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower.

Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).

 

Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond?