Jersey Andrew

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

58 / 56 - partly sunny today.  Upper 70s / low 80s.  Overall warmer the next week / through Friday.  Onshore pushing in along the coast, ridge above and cutoff below into the SE with ridge north.   Warmest days Sun (9/13) and Fri 9(19) mid 80s in the hottest spots perhaps warmer.   Mid week cut off ULL is in the SE / GFS more north so perhaps clouds and showers making it north, especially in southern section.  Looks like we have some semblance of a cut off / front come through from the GL/MW next weekend 20-21 and a brief period near/below normal. Overall warmer beyond there.

 

Could Wednesday be wet in NYC now?

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is now all but certain that New York City will see no rainfall for the August 22-31 period. Such an outcome favors a drier than normal September. When this was first noted last Sunday, the CFSv2 showed wetter than normal conditions for September.

The CFSv2 now shows a drier than normal September:

It has been stunning how dry August has been in the Northeast. I cannot ever remember DC area this refreshingly comfortable in August either!

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will turn briefly noticeably warmer for tomorrow and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. Durng tomorrow, smoke could dim the sun at times and lead to air quality issues, especially north of New York City.

The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.307 today. 

 

Don, does the August 15-20 period look particularly hot, any tropical activity? Thanks.

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

What time frame are we looking at? Interested in August 15-20 because planning to be in AC and NYC.

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's a gift link so that anyone can read the article: https://wapo.st/4mdOi2m

Thanks Don. I knew DC humidity was worse than anything I experienced growing up here in 1980s and 1990s. August will be a refreshing start but don’t know what second half will bring.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like EWR reached 101 again Don

 

These heat waves are brutal with these high dew points and humidity. Everyone who left Florida for 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean the local furnaces made it that high, but I have a strong feeling that in summers past (like 1991, 1993, 1999, etc.)  places like Corona Queens were regularly over 100 degrees.  Places like that probably hit 100 degrees at least once every summer.

The peak was 103-106 in June, but more like 97-101 in July.  The lower sun angle might have more to do with it, as it hasn't been rained here much.

 

Past heat waves have not been as oppressive with these high dewpoints. The Northeast has become Florida-like in the summer. You can call it anything you want but the climate has changed for the worse and our weather is miserable in July.

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1988 as a scorcher especially west of the city

 

July 1988 Newark Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
July 1	73	54	0.00	0.0
July 2	82	59	0.00	0.0
July 3	87	61	0.00	0.0
July 4	87	66	0.00	0.0
July 5	86	69	0.00	0.0
July 6	91	70	0.00	0.0
July 7	92	71	0.00	0.0
July 8	97	73	0.00	0.0
July 9	89	74	0.03	0.0
July 10	100	72	0.00	0.0
July 11	100	78	0.00	0.0
July 12	86	74	0.17	0.0
July 13	89	74	0.00	0.0
July 14	96	70	0.00	0.0
July 15	94	76	0.02	0.0
July 16	101	74	0.12	0.0
July 17	100	73	0.92	0.0
July 18	96	74	0.00	0.0
July 19	90	74	1.10	0.0
July 20	82	74	2.55	0.0
July 21	88	73	1.84	0.0
July 22	80	74	0.03	0.0
July 23	78	71	0.45	0.0
July 24	84	73	0.62	0.0
July 25	90	69	0.00	0.0
July 26	87	70	1.81	0.0
July 27	84	69	0.06	0.0
July 28	87	71	0.26	0.0
July 29	95	73	0.00	0.0
July 30	99	78	0.00	0.0
July 31	90	76	0.00	0.0

August 1988 Newark Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
August 1	91	76	0.00	0.0
August 2	94	76	0.00	0.0
August 3	93	76	0.00	0.0
August 4	92	77	0.00	0.0
August 5	90	77	0.00	0.0
August 6	90	75	0.00	0.0
August 7	93	77	0.00	0.0
August 8	90	75	0.00	0.0
August 9	92	75	0.00	0.0
August 10	93	76	0.01	0.0
August 11	97	77	0.00	0.0
August 12	95	80	0.00	0.0
August 13	98	79	0.00	0.0
August 14	98	80	0.00	0.0
August 15	99	81	0.00	0.0
August 16	92	74	0.00	0.0
August 17	90	70	0.05	0.0
August 18	88	71	0.00	0.0
August 19	79	64	0.00	0.0
August 20	76	64	0.00	0.0
August 21	87	61	0.00	0.0
August 22	80	60	0.00	0.0
August 23	74	65	0.06	0.0
August 24	79	64	1.38	0.0
August 25	83	64	0.01	0.0
August 26	89	67	0.01	0.0
August 27	81	71	0.00	0.0
August 28	89	71	0.00	0.0
August 29	79	67	0.30	0.0
August 30	76	66	0.00	0.0
August 31	81	60	0.00	0.0

Do we have any idea about the dew points and humidity back then? I was 10 years old living in DC area in 1988 and remember a hot summer but nothing like the uncomfortable humidities today.

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Totally agree with this. The heat just keeps on building back possibly into early September. In addition, I do not think the "cool down" is going to be quite as cool as it earlier appeared to be.

WX/PT

So second half of August looks hot now? Was hoping for humidity and heat to back off for NYC trip August 15.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday saw some record high minimum temperatures in the New York City area:

Bridgeport: 77° (tied record set in 1968)
Islip: 79° (old record: 75°, 1969, 2010, 2013, and 2021)

Don, looking ahead to August, is there any respite from the heat and humidity? Seems that July has been brutal in recent years with a break in August and then return to hot weather in September.

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And even more glorious-Long Beach is 90/80/108. 

No sign of a sea breeze? I loved taking LIRR out to Long Beach on weekends about ten years ago but now I’m not sure I could stomach the heat and humidity.

Does anyone have a graphic on rising humidity levels over past 40 years? These summers in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast have become Florida-like and much more unbearable than the 1980s when I was growing up.

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the potentially warm or snowy period 3/28-4/3  depending on what you look at, I'm looking for the warmth to get stuck just south of NYC with fog/drizzle then showers/storms temperatures in the 60s mostly. 73 up to Newark maybe. But I could see rapid warming during the second or third week of April perhaps up to mid 80s region wide for a time, and 90 first or second week of May. I think we'll see a strong Bermuda HP set up early and often this season.

WX/PT

Wow AccuWeather is going for a cold first half of April for the East Coast. What are you seeing for NYC down to DC?

13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Rain will continue into early tomorrow. By the time the storm departs, a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain is likely from Philadelphia to Boston. The highest amounts could occur on parts of Long Island. Tomorrow will be another mild day with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s.

Following the storm, it will turn somewhat colder, but not exceptionally cold for the weekend. Some additional precipitation is possible during the weekend, but the weekend should be mainly dry.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first 10 days of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has all but broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +4.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.022 today.

 

 

Hope next week is still looking mild in NYC as I am planning a trip there. Guess we won’t get that March snow Don.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

For the others in the same snow hole as me... keep that in mind.  Think about 2010 when every single storm jacked us...think about 2011 when we got jacked by the January storm and also had a nice Feb storm that VA and DC missed out on.  Think about all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that jacked our area!  The 2016 HECS!  We had a run!  Even going back before that northeast MD did a lot better in the Feb 2006 storm and a couple of the 2005 storms!  We were in a positive snow anomaly for a long time.  We are paying the devil his due now.  It will flip back again.  Hopefully sooner rather then later.  

But last year and this year the long range ensembles modeled monster snowfall. This season already overachieved in my book but this was supposed to be an awesome pattern.

Just now, osfan24 said:

I thought the NAM wasn't even developed until after the January 2000 storm specifically because of that major model miss?

I think it was SREF that came out of the Jan. 25,2000 forecast debacle.

Is there any chance of a Boxing Day blizzard error like occurred in 2010 when models brought storm back late?

6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat.

I have heard three feet of snow fell in NOVA in 1772 storm. Wonder how 2010 and 2016 compared with 28 inches in many areas and 32 at Dulles.

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

If you averaged the January 1966 and the February 1978 storms, you'd get the latest Gfs run.

Does this storm really have that potential or is it a model fantasy? What do the mets think of as an analog if any?

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is normal in a nina, we get SECY/MECS and northeast of us gets HECS.  If that happens have to just focus on what we get and not cry about Boston

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Bob definitely was the first to go big in 96 but to be fair he was only like 15 mins ahead of everyone else...its just he was on the air as the evening guidance came in, back then the ETA and NGM started coming in around 11pm, and I guess that was the run where the models caved and came north...and he broke in before his normal weather timeslot to tell everyone a huge snow was coming, top 5 ever.  They didn't have the normal graphics and forecast prepared it was all just on the spot based on what he just saw.   Everyone else caught on very soon after.  

But what made that moment so memorable was that Bob Ryan was by far the most conservative and almost always under predicted snow, so him saying that made it all the more memorable.  

The 96 blizzard was the first big storm of the Internet era. PTRAVEL and SNONUT on AOL dial up giving the model rundown. I could not believe the 2 foot forecast for NOVA even though I had vague memories of February 1983. Bob Ryan was the go to guy back then on Channel 4 and I was blown away by the 18-24 graphic never seen before.

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

"
Insane run 

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

HOCO might just say F it and do the same. 

Fairfax missed two weeks after January 1996. Never thought any storm could beat that but February 2010 did and January 2016. We complain about lack of big storms but certainly have had our share.

Is any analog showing up for this storm? Some combo of ‘79, ‘83, 2003 will do.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

Were the Euro ensembles doing long term runs back in 2010? Would be interested if that mammoth month was forecasted.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid.  Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. 

Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree.

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I remember a few "decent" ice storms during my lifetime. I was too young to remember 1994, however. Anyway - I guess this antecedent cold could foreshadow an increased ice storm threat as Bob Chill mentioned! 

January 1994 was an amazing month with two nasty ice storms and record cold. Last day DCA was below zero. I was a sophomore in high school and remember our driveway was a skating rink and Dad could not get car out.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the pattern in the pacific you are referring too evolved the exact same way in 2006.  The difference was the NS SW dove in behind the STJ wave and dug the trough better than most guidance is doing now that suggest the NS and STJ waves will be out of sync.  The rest of the pattern is nearly identical.  Especially the pacific which is specifically what you were talking about. 

Day of storm 2006

Day of Threat now

If I remember correctly it was the JMA that first sniffed out the 2006 storm. Thundersnow and foot of snow here in NOVA. It was a lucky break in otherwise uneventful winter.