sferic

21 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

From eye testing easily around .5-.75 is currently on the ground after the initial burst, should help to easily meet the forecast. Curious to see if any banding forms to help bust some of these forecasted amounts high, but Storm still moving too quickly to go anything more than 6-7”

As long as we get a 6-8 hour steady event with 4-6 I'll be happy. I want to use my new snow blower for a second time

Liberty NY Early snowburst of half an inch OTG

Updated 8:10PM  @crossbowftw3

19 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

NYZ062-032130-
/O.EXA.KBGM.WW.Y.0001.210103T1600Z-210104T0400Z/
Sullivan-
Including the city of Monticello
422 PM EST Sat Jan 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Sullivan county.

* WHEN...Snow will develop late in the morning Sunday, peak in
  intensity in the afternoon and taper off Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

Nice today tomorrow for us and maybe it overperforms a little?

@crossbowftw3I'll take 6" and be happy in Liberty NY at 1,500 feet

Freezing rain galore in Liberty NY

28.6 In Liberty NY at 1,500 Ft Moderate Freezing Rain, everything already encrusted and building.

Liberty NY Sleet 28.5 degrees  @crossbowftw3, you?

11:30PM Moderate freezing rain in Liberty NY @ 31.8 degrees

@crossbowftw3 how about you?

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The trends on the NAM are a bit surprising but again we can be thankful this doesn’t have much staying power and/or much precipitation to go with it...otherwise problems would certainly begin to arise. I’ll definitely be on the lookout for HREFs tomorrow but figure I’ll stay right where I am with .1-.3 with maybe a high end of .5 in typical elevations where the cold takes longest to clear out. Pretty typical messy little system and to me it never changed from being that. 

Agreed

In Liberty NY, hoping not a lot of ice accretion. Tried to but was unsuccessful in having a backup generator installed

@crossbowftw3 what do you think?

29 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I guess advisories for us N&W folk? 

Think we'll get accumulating backend snow?

11 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Finished up with 13” (margin of error +/-2) here in Sullivan county 

 

@sferic @snywx how did you two do? 

14" Wished I were in Binghamton !

6 inches  now in Liberty NY, just used a snow blower for the first time ever; electric, corded. LOVE it

Hopefully at least another 6 for a solid foot and I'll be happy, anything over that like 18 inches total I'll be even happier !

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

01z HRRR

 

So no matter what run , 15 hours later will always be the "TOTAL" that fell from beginning to end with modifications made each hour on the HRRR?

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

 

so this is for 4PM tomorrow and basically if it is  correct is the total or what is still  left to come?

I was under the impression like with the HRRR every hourly run projected to the end of the storm shows what is left to come not the cumulative snow

@crossbowftw3 @snywx Is confidence still high in your opinion for us ?

Approaching 2 inches in Liberty NY in the Catskills  15.8/14

There is some nice echos passing through but nothing too much in back of that

The HRRR also is decreasing hour by hour its 15z totals.

Concerning ?

@crossbowftw3 @snywx

What do you think of those NW numbers?

Basically not even a half an inch here in Liberty as of 7PM

@crossbowftw3 a beautiful graphic indeed; with lollipops  to 30" no doubt

10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Finally commenced in Sullivan. 23/11 with point and click forecast of 21” now. Probably the last time @sferic and I see bare ground for a while, lol 

Agreed   19.1/ 4 here   No flakes yet but  very soon

Enjoy !

Is there a graphic the NWS provides which projects possible snow ratios?

Does anyone think any spot in the massive storm will hit 30"? Does this storm have that potential oomph ?

Can you imagine if this storm slowed down; even by 3-6 hours?

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

For that matter what were our ratios for Pi Day? @sferic

I do not recall

3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.

What ae your thoughts of the possibility of thundersnow?

Do you see this as a solid 12 hour event or a solid 12-18 hour event?

I can't stand 6-8 hour storms no matter how many inches per hour they produce