CT Rain

Torrtington, CT on 12z Friday. Oof. 

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM in 84 hour clown range looks good.

Sure does

1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

in the past 10 years at my current location I've only accorded accumulating snows in November twice...~0.5" on 11/8/10...and 3" on 11/7/12 (which according to my notes  was unexpected). wouldn't mind adding another November snowfall to the record books.

You got robbed in 2012... places just west of you had a foot!

I will say the boundary layer doesn't look like an issue with a really good cold source and nice northerly ageostrophic flow. Could surprise to the coast. 

41 minutes ago, BRSno said:

Leaving for Copenhagen on the 15th, so it'd be nice to see first flakes before then! Even if not the 6z "crusher". Think it's possible?

Jealous. Was just there this summer - it's awesome!

3 hours ago, StormSurge said:

Sorry, it’s been crazy! 

Steve shared the drive that has all my photos (thanks!) so check that out. 

(Apologies in advance for any errors. On the ferry now).

We got a fire alarm call at 7:43 am for an alarm activation on Isabella Beach Rd. While waiting for another firefighter to get to the firehouse to respond, we received another call four minutes later for another alarm on Clay Point Rd. 

On the way to the first call, the gate house attendant (the east end of the island is private) told us a resident called to say a tornado hit her house & trees were everywhere. That resident lives next to where we were headed .

We arrived at the first call just as it was being called off as a false alarm. We were going to continue down Isabella Beach Rd to the second call but the road was impassable. We turned around & headed back to the main road and soon we found that road impassable as well. (@Hoth, just pass 4 Corners, right before the water works.)

That was a false alarm too, so after returning the fire truck, I headed back out to take photos. 

I started at the house where the caller lives & worked my way down Isabella Beach Rd. on foot   All of the trees there had fallen in the same direction. I assumed straight line winds at that point. 

There were many trees down along that route, all falling in the same direction (SW to NE). As I approached the 4 Corners area, I noticed that the tops of the trees were showing damage, along with twisting. 

Tops of utility poles were ripped & eventually I came across the most dramatic damage. There’s a home on the north side of the driving range that had a stand of trees obliterated, giving the home owner a new water view. (@hoth, the Arnold’s I believe). 

Just past that home is where the photos of the shed were taken. The shed was completely blown off the foundation & into a sailboat being stored, which was also severely damaged. 

The tornado exited the island just to the NE of this location. (@hoth, the Bogerts)

During my travels, I heard of the damage to the round house at Wilderness Pt. All of the windows were blown out on the south, west & north sides. This is where the water spout came ashore. 

Let me know if anyone has any specific questions regarding any of the photos or anything else. I’m heading to Albany for the night and Mrs. SS is driving. 

That is wild. Thanks for sharing your story! You finally got your storm!!

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

CT should annex Fisher’s Island to increase their severe stats

Most of the time it's a pit for severe!

TDS on Fishers Island. Pretty remarkable. 

3 hours ago, radarman said:

Wow - for sure! Impressive couplet there. 

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs Soundings look like Accums in NW CT W MA over to Say N ORH county Monads then to Concord Area 

GFS is very cold through 12z

Congrats Dave! 

Those clown maps. Dear lord. Maybe some pre-12z parachutes in far NW CT?

Pretty close to some accumulating snow in the hills of NW CT and W Mass Saturday morning. 

Is Ginx OK? 

I spy some TTs of 60 for 9z tomorrow! 

39 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Snow would be a disaster here with fully foliated trees.

Looks like all rain to me. Even north of here. 

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The NHC did very well IMO. I think you can argue that the environment (shear, mid level rh) was still something that could have negatively impacted the rate of intensification for Michael, but it just blasted through all of that with an inertially stable core. 

I definitely have a different take. I thought the intensity forecasts were flat out bad. Not sure they could have done anything different but I certainly did not expect the 3rd most powerful US landfall on record - even 24 hours out!

There's not much they could have done differently though. We suck at intensity forecasting. 

Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time? 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

That eye is clearing out and warming up.

I mean his posts are so absurd normally. That one really was the worst in a while. 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We 4 inland 

Cranky thinks it's a cat 1. 

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

FV3 is definitely more aggressive with QPF

Brings the thing over the Cape.

Run from Jimmy's basement. 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the PRE may wind up over the Great Lakes (Michigan). Plume of high theta-e air (925mb), equatorward jet entrance region, and digging 700mb s/w. 

53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hmm, verbatim maybe a sharper shortwave ridge ahead of the TC would be nice, but it's not far off the conceptual model. Something to keep an eye on.

Seems like the PRE may wind up over the Great Lakes (Michigan). Plume of high theta-e air (925mb), equatorward jet entrance region, and digging 700mb s/w. 

I'm interested to see if someone in New England can pull out a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) from Michael on Thursday morning. It looks like the best jet dynamics may be too far north? 

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

There is a lot of evidence that points to thresholds being necessary for severe weather. But it is a sliding scale, because you are trying to balance shear with instability. Too much shear and too little instability isn't good, but neither is too much instability and too little shear. 

Then you also have issues like our tornado parameter space looks an awful lot like our flash flood parameter space. How do we establish which threat will dominate?

Sort of reminds me of that big tornado even last summer in Indiana. Big miss by SPC. Neither instability nor shear were off the charts but they were perfectly co-located for several hours and everything wound up going to town. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Fake cold places will not be happy as GW targets overnight mins.

No kidding. Mins just getting taken to the woodshed. 

44 minutes ago, JJBASHB said:

An uptick in violent tornadoes would be more alarming.   Technological advancements, like dual pol, coupled with talented meteorologists are helping capture more of these events as well.  Which is really exciting to see from a public safety/emergency response standpoint.  

Yeah - and either way there's no real trend in tornado activity around here.

I could see in a warming world our severe weather season expanding some with more events happening in the spring and fall. Warmer waters off New England would certainly help that.