msuwx

Although it could be, are we really going with “last hurrah” in January?

Looking at 500mb vort….the Canadian was really, really close to a biggie.

Haha. It’s not a thing. Nobody tells us what to say or not say. Our management trusts us to lead the coverage as we deem it appropriate.

It is definitely a legitimate threat and this isn’t in fantasyland. These are real pieces of energy that should exist in reality. We all just need to realize we are threading the phasing needle with this one. Timing is paramount, and you can undoubtedly expect some swings in the modeling. Later phase, earlier phase, no phase at all as the timing of the disturbances changes, etc.

Yep. Day 6-7

This one is pretty straightforward. It is simply a matter of timing the phase. Some modeling has been phasing too late to really bring any appreciable precipitation. A couple of runs have phases at the perfect time to bring a significant snowstorm. All about the 500mb vorts.

While the Euro may continue to be scoring higher when looking at the scoring of upper air height anomaly verifications and what not, there is no doubt that the GFS has sniffed out and had more accurate ideas with individual storms in the day 5-10 range compared to the Euro around here. And that dates back to hurricane season too.

I missed this yesterday..... Yes! I think they will! haha

A westward expansion of the WSW is imminent.

If the models were always right, there would be little fun in meteorology (at least the forecasting aspect of it). We could all just look at what our weather apps printed out and go about our day. The learning, the chasing, the gut instincts, and the insight from years of studying this awesome, dynamic, always-changing atmosphere....that's what makes forecasting fun. Forecasting winter weather is hands-down the most difficult and complex forecasting I do. But those are the same reasons it is my favorite type of forecasting. I welcome the challenge and always try to come away a little wiser from each system. Enjoy the ride. Learn. Be fascinated by the atmosphere. ....We now return you to your regularly-scheduled programming...

I'm afraid it's now a trend over the last couple of cycles. 6z RGEM, 6z NAM, and 12z NAM all went in that direction.

Yeah northern branch might be well out ahead this time on the 12z NAM. Let's see where it goes.

I haven't put out numbers yet, but here is what I drew up for a probability of 2" of snow as of early this morning.

The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs. 6z vs. 0z Euro:

Yeah it was interesting. This is in its traditional wheelhouse, so it might be worth noting.

Indeed:

I wouldn't sound too many alarms just yet, but the ice signal looks a little stronger on this one from afar to me.

That is a stronger ice signal on the NBM than I ever remember seeing leading up to our last storm.

I am not seeing a big difference between the 0z EPS and the 6z EPS as far as Carolina interests are concerned. Nothing that isn't within the 'noise' range. It's definitely a little colder, but the resulting snow is largely unchanged.

When you ae dealing with stream interaction/ phasing, the UKMET is usually one of the best. We shall see.

Nah the warm nose aloft was pretty well modeled. It was always a fine line between sleet and ZR. Asheville transition to sleet by midday. The reason sleet prevailed in many spots (instead of ZR) is because of the very impressive surface cold layer….in terms of actual temps and depth up to at least 925mb.

Yeah, the control did jump NW. But remember that's really just one member of the ensemble package. Any changes in the ensemble mean from 0z to 6z were quite negligible.

6z vs. 0z control for anyone wondering.