Dunkman

NAM continues to be drier W and SW of Raleigh with every run. If you're not in the NE quadrant of NC or the mountains anything that sticks to the ground should be considered a victory.

Interestingly the UK has the jackpot set up in the Kinston area much like the GFS did. 

3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Maybe we'll get a decent chance in March!

Magnificent March! It's the new Fab Feb!

If anything there was more snow on the 3k NAM at 00z than at 18z. That's reassuring for me and makes me think it's just the 12k coming back to earth rather than the start of some dramatic warming or drying up in the models.

The 3k NAM is actually drier west of Raleigh but wetter in Wake and to the E and NE.

You know if it ends up too warm and we get a lot of white rain I can live with that. It's what you'd expect from this pattern. If the precip fizzles out after every storm for months has over performed that's going to be really annoying.

With snow our WFOs seem to decide how they feel about an event a few days in advance and try to stick with it, at least until the night before. It makes sense you don't want the forecast bouncing around with every model run. I'm fine with the expected forecasts, we've certainly had white rain events in the past. That said, the 1 in 10 forecasts and probability of x" of snow products aren't great.

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We in the mid-Atlantic always have the policy of cutting the NAM qpf in half at least.

Id favor a Euro/GFS/NAM blend.

For sure I hope no one is expecting 12"+ now. But if we could squeeze a 4-6" event out of this miserable excuse for a winter I'd be thrilled.

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's just now getting good. If the Euro comes in dry again it will really be some model warfare 

I mean of course a good Euro would bring me back but after what I've seen so far today I'm out. The NAM and the GFS with no ensemble support against the world isn't really where I want to be 2 days out. Definitely the most exciting and important suite of model runs this winter for NC, it's a shame it's mostly flopped.

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

So are the globals really that important right now? Just curious of y'alls thoughts ..  or should we focus more on short range

I mean big picture the Euro is the most skilled model at every time frame. To say it's not important would be silly. It's true though it hasn't done particularly well forecasting sensible weather in our region with this pattern lately.

I'm pretty excited about getting NAMed at least once this year. It's a big step forward!

Fun fact about February 1990, it was right in the middle of the longest snow drought on record here in the Triad. They may be onto something with this Arctic Oscillation thingy.

Even the high end forecast from GSP looks pretty meager. We must really be wishcasting this one or something.

I'm happy to see the 60s will be back for the start of Fab Feb!

That warned storm north of Greensboro has really gotten it's act together 

Tornado warning in Guilford County. That part of the line went over my house less than 10 minutes before it was warned. Pretty wild few minutes.

Yeah the graphic they have for the watch is all wrong here's the text:

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Columbia SC
   to 30 miles northeast of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU8).

How long do you think it'll be before we keep reliving Sandy in painstaking detail every time there's a hurricane? I'm setting the o/u at 2050.

With every post I've seen saying a model is going west the last 2 days it should be hitting Texas by now.

1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

It’s definitely important to remember a Florida landfall is well within range of a “typical forecast error” 48 hours out.

Yeah and honestly it seems like the NHC was maybe a little late with the hurricane watches. I really think the wind radii expanding out relatively rapidly is a pretty big concern.

I know they didn't go with the actual reading but I can't say I ever remember a dropsonde measuring 200+ at the surface before. Anyone else?

11 minutes ago, hickory said:

Just got a Tornado warning announcement from phone for the cell in downtown Greensboro currently.

Odd timing on that the storm is much weaker than it was 20-30 minutes ago. Another warning now for the storm near Concord.

9 minutes ago, hickory said:

Am in Brown Summit currently. I'll give any updates or pictures if need be. That cell looks nasty rolling near PTI currently. Time to prepare lol.

For sure. The hail marker is up to 2.25" for that storm as well.

That storm is like 75 dBZ just WNW of Greensboro. I'd imagine there will be a lot of storm reports rolling in soon.

13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Hope not.  I am under it as we speak! 

Yeah I have a pretty good view from here. It's definitely rotating.

Storm that just moved through Winston probably needs a TOR soon

3 minutes ago, scwxfan said:

Tornado warning issued for Iredell county.

Nice little notch on that storm