GFS continuing the trend of South and weaker. I really think we might sneak an advisory level maybe even warning event above 3k north of 40. Inch or 2 of sleet and snow with .10-.25 ZR
RDPS looks more what I expect. Lots of sleet near the Blue Ridge north of 40 for the first few hours of precip. It's a good short range model usually. Although this is at the end of the run.
The WAA is crazy on the NAM but it's way out at the end of the run. It goes from 26 with a dewpoint of 18 to 33 wetbulbed with rain falling within 6-8 hours.
The NAM (I know) has AVL at 26 with a dewpoint of 18 Friday night around midnight. If that verifies before the moisture moves it, it will be difficult to get above freezing especially in CAD areas.
The latest Euro isn't as bad but its still a lot of cutters. Hopefully after the 15th or so it will finally transition to a better pattern. I'm in wait and see mode though.
A product of climate change I think. Even when we get 12 inches of rain in 2 weeks, it almost all runs off and the water table goes down quickly allowing the droughts to intensify quicker.
I'm not there yet but its concerning. The Pacific is still ruining our snow chances. I hope we can at least get a few inches of slop before the downpours this Saturday morning.