wncsnow

The mountains would get raked with heavy wet snow if Euro is right. Nice orographic uplift from SE flow too

Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA.

7 minutes ago, bargainmusic said:

Who do I need to bribe to make this happen?

God lol

lol the GFS strikes again.. The sooner this version of the model is replaced the better. It doesn't even get moisture to Northern NC, Southern VA 

There has been no sun here since Friday and it has yet to make an appearance today. It has finally climbed into the 50's though. 

Those strong modeled highs do favor a more southerly track if correct. 

15 hours ago, jburns said:

We only live a few miles apart. Let's have some fun.  I'll take your numbers, move the decimal one place left for my snowfall forecast. At the end of the winter, we will see who ended up closest at each location. We can put up some kind of wager if you want. So there you have it. I am issuing the 1/10 challenge.

You may lose this challenge since you will most definitely be way off on mountain locations. 12 inches on Beech mountain? Bold. 

Close to 2 inches here now and probably .50 still left..

1.25 here in Danville with quite a bit more to come.. We have become the epicenter for rain and storms the past few years..

7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Don’t forget Brad P! The G.O.A.T

I have had many discussions with Brad about his brand of "forecasting". He basically said he doesn't like to issue a forecast unless it's 2 days before an event. But is that even forecasting? 

Raysweather released their winter forecast for the mountains and immediate area today. Very sound reasoning and good read. 

http://booneweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0PmkqO3m-09XUduhc2kHBHJ8d6Jt5fMboahcNbDQfXnKiM4AZPuVMYzxQ

Robert is my personal favorite forecaster. He is incredibly talented and knows the micro-climates of NC/SC/GA very well. Yes he misses badly sometimes but his forecasts put people like Brad Panovich to shame. 

Euro shows a legit gulf low with a strong wedging high in place on days 9/10, too bad its late October! 

48 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

It is a shame certain Mets totally discounted the stellar HRRR

Many companies then put their employees in extreme danger yesterday and many came home to damage that could have been contained if they were home 

The HRRR was amazingly good here in Danville, consistently showing 6+ inches of rain and strong gusts when other models showed less than 1/2 of that. Euro failed miserably with the track up here, had it WAY too far south. It was super bad with QPF as well. GFS FV# was much much better. 

2 more fatalities in Danville.. 3 total from the storm. 

5 people have died in Virginia from Michael.. It may go up too..

I'm hearing reports of at least 2 people missing, presumably swept away in flood waters in Danville area...Nothing confirmed yet.

18 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

How much rain did Danville get?  And down towards Stoneville? Hearing there was a lot of farm damage up there.  Tornado-ish?

I work for the city, we had 6.75 in 2 hours according to a gauge we have at Public Works. Anywhere from 6 to 8 across the city and winds from 50 to 60 in the worst band. The city has struggled and is trying to get on its feet with a nice river district area that is under a lot of water now..

Dan River is now 28.59 feet. Just a few inches from breaking the 22 year record from 1996 from Fran. If it gets over 30 feet it will be one of the worst floods here in the last 50 years. 

I'm trying to post some pictures and video but having trouble. It was a wild day here in Danville. Major river flooding continues and power is out to over 10,000 people in the city. Trees on houses, cars washed away, swift water rescues, etc. 

A gauge at Public Works in Danville reported 6.75 of rain in less than 2 hours.. Terrible flash flooding..

The Sandy River has crested at its all time level surpassing Fran in 96.

The Dan River went from 8 feet to 23.5 in 3 hours and is forecasted to crest at a record 29 feet.. 

Flash flood emergency here in Danville. Pretty much whole city is without power and multiple swiftwater rescues are ongoing.

Scary bad in Danville.. gusting over 55 easy. Transformers blowing

Extremely heavy rain here in Danville that is blowing sideways.. Visibility dropping

2 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

Noooo not in Danville still as can be right now 

Not near the airport...