wncsnow

23 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Here's the moment we've been waiting for! Jim Cantore is officially headed to....Asheville!

Death blow 

Just now, BretWheatley said:

I'd gladly take that and run... It's December 6th! 

Yes but the way these models have been spitting out ridiculous amounts for days on end with ensemble means agreeing to a ridiculous extent.. it is disappointing if we get a typical storm instead of a blockbuster.. 

Starting to look like your typical winter storm for WNC/Foothills and triad. 4-6 inches of snow then sleet and ice on top... Nothing too special about it 

This is starting to look like your typical 4-6 or 6-8 inch storm with some sleet and ice on top. Nothing once in a generational.. Could be wrong but that seems to be the trend today

Snow maps starting to look more realistic 

Freezing rain showing up much further north now into the triad on the GFS

It's showing some freezing rain sneaking into the French Broad valley at 72 which will likely cut down on totals this run

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

If the NAM were to go further in time, I would say it would give southern VA 6-10".

Doubt it. Had already started to switch to sleet in our area at 84. Look at the sounding. 

Just now, GreensboroWx said:

Geez, check out the time on the map!!  The NAM is slower and the bulk of the moisture is just really getting into the N parts of NC. What I'm saying is this is just the totals for the very beginning of the storm. Be patient!  Yes, it's warmer aloft but we'll have to see what other model runs tell us. 

Yes it isn't finished but.. the front end thump being advertised isn't looking as impressive on the NAM.

Total QPF for NAM... very dry for triangle and no way it gets to 1 inch qpf there as modeled 

The nam is definitely on the drier side for the whole area, which seems odd considering it used to be the most amped up/heavy qpf.... It shows the front end thump being not much more than a nuisance 

You can see the effects o the strong confluence on the simulated radar

12Z Nam is already looking more suppressed out to 42..

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

If you keep saying the Euro ticks south each time you do a PBP, it's going to tick all the snow down into Florida lol

We need a more expansive precip shield on the north side of the storm. Out totals are dropped from 18 to 12 to under 8 now on the Euro..

Just now, burgertime said:

Here's how the precip looks....Also is anyone using the 18z and 6z runs of the Euro? Just wondering how they stack up to the NAM. 

 

 

 

Ouch. Getting close to being a whiff here. We still get .75 to 1 inch qpf but its trending south. Nothing as close Lynchburg

Euro is rolling..

As expected the snow map wasnt quite as crazy with amounts due to slightly less QPF. 

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

It’s actually more this run if you toggle back and forth. 

Keep toggling

1 minute ago, Wow said:

No, it's not.  It's pretty much on par with the prev run thru 96

It is less in the mountains of NC. Many more places with less than 1 inch total qpf at 96 compared to 18z. Maybe .25 to .50 less in places the western most part of the state on GFS

Through 90 there is less total precip over WNC

Never thought it could possibly trend too far.. south? Starting to look like less precip up into VA with more suppression but still a lot of time to go. About time for late NW adjustments

At 84 WNC is getting pounded with heavy snow

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Out to 75 on the NAM, and there's another shortwave that dropped into the NE 50/50 low and there's more confluence now than the last run, so it looks like it will stay fairly suppressed

Yep it does, its warmer prior to the storm moving in though..And slow too

Spruce Pine will do very well with the flow. Little Switzerland too

Think I'm gonna extend the deadline until tomorrow. No one wants to play!