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MD Snow

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Everything posted by MD Snow

  1. Shift north is in progress across guidance. Hard to deny. .
  2. And yes, it's the Icon but it seems to be following the other globals last few runs of a slightly warmer more inland track...
  3. Block seems slightly weaker. 50/50 is slightly easter. .
  4. Yeah, really not that different in the grand scheme of things. Especially for a 5-6 day lead.
  5. The theme all winter is for model's to pretty much lock into a general final solution from about 5 days or 120hrs out. Small wobbles here and there but general track etc pretty much set by that point. Given the blocking that's setting up and how this slow's the flow down a bit, I wouldn't be suprised if the general track is nailed down earlier than that for the 11-12th threat. So I'd imagine we've got another day or two of some crazy swings before the ops really start locking it in.
  6. Totally agree with you. I understand what’s going on. I saw the eps. But like I said, given the trend to a cutter our only chance at seeing any wintry precipitation in this set up would be something on the front end imo. .
  7. Front end dump is how we score in this set up. That’s what I’m tracking. .
  8. Glad to be tracking a threat inside 6 days! That's a win for this winter. Thinking model's lock into a general track over the next 24 hrs. At that point, we start talking details. If we land on a general euro/cmc/icon solution and the low tracks to our south, it will be interesting to see how the block effects things in the final 96 hrs. Been fun to watch the tuesday storm get punched south over the last 48-72hrs. Looks like areas in southeast PA could even start as snow now, where a few days it was southern new york. Obviously, a gfs track dooms pretty much everyone. If we can avoid that cutter solution, I think there's a chance even the cities get into at least some accumulations.
  9. Not sure if the storm has finished across all ens members by 144 on the eps? Some may start as rain and end as snow which may not be included in the snow map? .
  10. CMC also shows a wave on the 22nd with temp issues along with a significant ice storm for Balt metro on the 24th. .
  11. The storm on the 23/24 and the chance of a front end thump. GFS, Euro and CMC all showing potential at this point. .
  12. CMC is pretty close as well. Major winter storm verbatim for the northern crew. I’ve been watching this window for a couple days now. GFS has been close a few times. Nice to see gfs and cmc move in the right direction tonight.
  13. Not liking a majority of LP's in VA/NC. Potential is there for the final shift to be inland today/tomorrow.
  14. Nice to see guidance possibly trending to something somewhat interesting inside of 5 days for once. .
  15. Well, the gfs just gave you 6+" with everything working out perfectly. So I guess it's not completely impossible for people with elevation. I know we're screwed regardless in the lowlands but hoping you can get a nice event at some point before middle of march.
  16. As it has been pointed out countless times, the only real way we're going to get snow this year will be by getting lucky or a fluke. Wave on the heels of a cold front, weak overrunning etc. Imo, our next chance of backing into a fluke event would after Feb 18 or so through the end of the month. Something to at least watch. May be our last shot of at least seeing flakes. The look below is supported by both the GEPS and EPS.
  17. Living in the lowlands I’m well aware of my fate most winters. At this point, in this winter, I just want someone to score. I’m rooting for areas to the north and west to at least get one solid event. .
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