RockyKnob

Nah. January 2018 was the best, at least for Chapel Hill. ULL produced a foot and sent Gre Fishel into the fountain.

Dry slot finally relenting in Chapel Hill.

Please don’t call it that. Greensboro averages more snow than Roxboro, and neither hold a candle to the mountains. It may be the snow capital of the WRAL viewing area, but it is far from the snow capital of NC.

Late January 1996 (heavy snow, with a bout of sleet in the middle of the event) and early February 1996 (sleet). Also had some random snow showers a week after the second storm. I lived in Greensboro at the time and the secondary streets in town were ice covered for three weeks.

Jumped from 21.5 up to 25.6 in Chapel Hill. Started out with moderate to heavy sleet, but now all zr. Nowhere near the 31 WRAL predicted for me, though.

Just started back up in Chapel Hill. 21.5°.

The line appears to be moving much more slowly than modeled on the HRR.

Raleigh-Durham MSA is NOT as big as Charlotte’s MSA. 2.7 million versus 2 million. I chalk it up to the fact that the Triangle, and certainly the Triad, get more action than Charlotte.

WNC doesn’t have the fragile pines that are in ENC, so they have that going for them. Also, any places with altitude will either be sleet or rain. It’s tough to get prolonged freezing rain there. The escarpment will have freezing rain, but without the pines to collapse everywhere, it hopefully will not be so bad.

I’m not sure what altitude the warm layer will occupy, but generally, for the reasons you mention, freezing rain is generally not a thing in the mountains. The high peaks in particular should be fine. Valleys like Boone can still have sone issues, but I can’t see prolonged freezing rain above 3,000 feet unless us down in the flatlands get mostly sleet.

I’m no professional, nor even an avid student of the models, but I have lived in North Carolina for 56 years, and I can promise you the Euro is understating the sleet / overstating the freezing rain.

I have. After the big miss on the winter hurricane of 2000, that following December the models and even NOAA was calling for 12-18” across Central NC. Storm systems did not phase, and so we got zip. Not even rain. Just dry.

All snow still here at Chatham / Orange County line just below CH. Steady, moderate snow with some periods of heavy snow. Closing in on 2” via eyeball measure of accumulation on a patio table. I’m hoping for a few more inches if nothing else so I am not reminded of all of the branches I should have picked up out of the yard before this started.

Asphalt driveway finally caving at the Chatham / Orange County line just south of CH. Rates giving the sun angle the middle finger.

Was in a snow hole on the Chatham / Orange County line. Rates picking up again.

We’ve had several events where models show the warm nose changing everything to freezing rain in Chapel Hill where we’ve stayed sleet, at least, so the warm nose is often over estimated.

I grew up in Lenoir in the 70’s and early 80’s. We had several events that finished with zr on top of 6+ inches of snow. Sometimes so much of a crust that I could walk on top of it. Crazy fun sledding conditions. I live in Chapel Hill now, and was here for the December 2002 monster ice storm. Had no power for 8 full days. We were on a well back then, which also meant we had no water. I swore I would buy a generator after that, but kept rolling the dice enduring shorter outages. I finally got a whole house generator this summer. Looks like I may have done it just in the nick of time.

The December 2022 storm was like that for Central NC. No power for 8 days outside Chapel Hill, where we lived on a well (ie, no water). I have a whole house generator now because of that experience.

Mike Maze just said it will flip back soon.

First flakes just southwest of Chapel Hill

Roxboro gets a lot of run because it’s close to WRAL. I’d definitely take either Eden or Mt. Airy. Outside of the mountains, I’d put a chip on Yanceyville or Eden for any setup - CAD, coastal, ULL, front passage, you name it.

It’s very early, it’s been cold all day, the sun is down, and so nothing that has fallen will melt. The low has not really got cranking yet.

Returns seem to be expanding around the initial narrow band through RDU.

The shoe is usually on the other foot as between us and Raleigh. Usually works out where the Triad had the big hit, we get something less but still a nice hit, and Raleigh gets blanked. Going to be a mirror image with this storm. We’ll do fine.