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Tatamy

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Everything posted by Tatamy

  1. Tatamy
    0z NAM continues to be toasty at the mid levels. You need to be in the Catskills to see meaningful snow accumulations on this run.
  2. Tatamy
    The 12z runs are coming into good agreement on a paste job for interior sections particularly to the north and west of I80 and I287. I think 6-10” for elevations over 800-1000’ are possible. Places to the east of the Hudson River get less. Areas in NJ between I78 and I80 are definitely in the hunt with this one (lesser accumulations). This will be a front end thump and many of these areas can ultimately go over to rain before it wraps up.
  3. Tatamy
    12z NAM takes a big step towards joining the GFS/GGEM camp with higher snow totals to the N&W of I287 and I80. Colder run this cycle.
  4. Tatamy
    Euro is very close at the mid levels at least to joining the GFS GGEM camp. Note the slight bump to the east at 06z on the track of SLP.
  5. Tatamy
    The areas most likely to see significant snow from this event continues to be those to the north and west of I80 and I287. The GFS and CMC would add areas to the north of I78 as well. I would place more weight on the NAM solutions starting from tomorrow.
  6. Tatamy
    18z GFS has QPF totals of 1.5”+ for northern NJ, SE NY, and eastern and north eastern PA. Even at 8:1 ratios that means 12”+ for these areas with more at higher elevations.
  7. Tatamy
    18z RDPS and the 18z GFS have the makings of a paste bomb for interior northern NJ and adjacent PA.
  8. Tatamy
    Can someone pin the 12/15 - 12/16 thread?
  9. Tatamy
    Thread is now created.
  10. Tatamy
    Depends on your choice of model. The GFS would be over 12” of snow. The CMC would be 4-8” of snow going over to an extended period of sleet. The Euro is still quite warm and would be mostly rain after some frozen/ freezing precip to start. FWIW the NAM which usually leads the way with mid level warming was going cold with this one on the 12z run (at least initially).
  11. Tatamy
    12z CMC would be a big sleet producer. If you went with a 2:1 ratio this run would produce 1-2” of sleet on top of a few inches of snow in the interior.
  12. Tatamy
    Look at the overnight models. How many of them are showing significant snows on the coast? The primary is torching the mid levels. The Euro / CMC are very strongly in that camp. The GFS looks to be colder than the GEFS and is on its own with snows closer in to the city. The ensembles are showing this as being a latitude based event. There will be other events this month and maybe one of them will deliver snow for the coast.
  13. Tatamy
    For the end of the week I would be giving greater weight to models showing a system that gives more of a freezing/frozen precip event to the interior areas. I think the GFS is on its own and is too cold in the mid levels. I agree with Walt’s idea that this is mainly an I84 and north event.
  14. Tatamy
    12z UKMET was colder for upstate NY and interior NE.
  15. Tatamy
    12z GFS has another snow event for interior locations. The 12z CMC with warming depicted between 700-800mb and a cold layer below would result in up to 10-12 hours of sleet/ice. It then goes to rain. This could result in sleet accumulations of up to 1-2”. This could have very nasty implications for travel later in the week in the interior.
  16. Tatamy
    Some of the short range guidance has bumped up snowfall amounts in parts of NW NJ and LI as of late. This is the 14z HRRR
  17. Tatamy
    Not a lot going on generally between Harrisburg and Allentown as of now. Those places that had a coating earlier have mostly melted off. In the high country on I81 to the NE of Harrisburg just a coating with freezing drizzle as well. Even on I81 just a coating at the rest stop north of Hazleton.
  18. Tatamy
    Snow depth off of the 12K NAM
  19. Tatamy
    This ties into the analysis on the 3K just posted by Bluewave.
  20. Tatamy
    According to the 12z NAM it looks like the place to be for this event is LI Sound. Places along the north shore of Suffolk and the north fork would do good as well.
  21. Tatamy
    White rain
  22. Tatamy
    Nice burst of moderate snow passing through. 32•
  23. Tatamy
    Light wet snow falling here with a coating on colder surfaces.
  24. Tatamy
    If you are following this thread and have a weather station check your dew points. If they have increased in a short period of time this evening and your skies are now overcast check your conditions outside if you are along or north of I78. I am getting flurries here and I am seeing them reported on LI as well with the onshore flow.
  25. Tatamy
    Your R/S line for this event and others especially this time of year typically runs along LI Sound from east to west near the CT coast. You’re not the only one that gets to worry about R/S lines however. If you’re in NJ it’s typically along I80. In PA it’s Blue Mountain. In fact out here Blue Mountain is every bit the imposing geological barrier and guarantor of the R/S line as LI Sound is for you.
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