Tatamy

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

.9 at the park.   Before that you had to go back to Feb 2022 to find a snowfall more than 1" there.   PHL is even worse.

Over time I believe it will become increasingly difficult to see snowfalls of 1” or more in NYC.  This won’t be solely caused by global warming either.  I used to work in Manhattan back in the first decade.  I worked in midtown near 34th and 9th Avenue.  In a borderline event with wet snow I would routinely walk from 9th to 8th Avenues and the snow would turn to rain due to the urban heat island effect.  You could walk down some streets and see snow falling at the rooftops and rain at street level.  Now that West Side Yards has been built I am sure that is no longer possible.  That brings me to my point.  There are currently plans for what are known as “Supertalls” all over Manhattan and the other nearby boroughs.  Investors are buying up properties and tearing down what is there in order to construct these enormous buildings.  NYC is well on its way to having into the hundreds of these 800’ to 1000’ buildings throughout the city.  I think by 25-50 years or so there will only be snow in Manhattan with the most intense/cold storms.  I believe that this man made mountain range will have other effects in the region that have yet to be seen or determined.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

First flurries of the season here currently 

 

32 

 

Looks the Philly area is in for a nice surprise this morning 

Two days in a row with light snow in the morning.  Yesterday we had a coating which was gone by lunchtime.  Today a slightly heavier coating so far.  The heaviest amounts I have seen up in the Poconos (about 2000’) look to be about an inch.  Reminds me of some of the garbage events from last year.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Exactly. Terms like optimism and pessimism are only relevant in situations where your input can help to determine the actual outcome. To my knowledge, nobody on this forum or Wxtwitter that loves winter weather like us has invented a weather control device. But looking for the hints that enable us to successfully forecast the long range pattern is a big benefit to society. Especially in this age of rapid warming on a geological scale and extreme weather.

Maybe some on here incorrectly infer from my posts that I don’t like winter. This is pretty far from the truth. I was born a few days after an historic KU snowstorm. So it’s as close in weather terms to being born under and astrologically snowy sign.. When I point out the extreme ratio of something like 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 15-16 to only on cold one it’s not something that gives me pleasure. I don’t like extreme warmth and heat but just had to learn to adapt like everyone else. I would enjoy a meal at a favorite restaurant with even someone on the forum who disagrees with me most of the time. Since the common bond is the love for everything weather and climate and not our differences. I actually have a really great sense out humor and levity which may not always come across in my posts. So main main passion is looking for clues in order help us better forecast the weather in the geologically rapidly warming climate. 

In my time on these boards I have found you to be one of the most knowledgeable and objective posters that I know.  You provide very insightful analysis and substantiation to back it up.  I find that I have learned a great deal from the posts that you provide.  Thank you for your contributions.

Steady light snow at 34 degrees.  Visibility 1 mile with this channelized vorticity activity dropping south from the lakes.  This has been well modeled for a few days now.  Not really sticking.

40 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I've had very light accumulating snow for about two hours now. I expected mood flakes not this but I'll take it! 

A few light mood flakes in the air here too.

Interesting evolution being depicted on the 0z runs for the cold front coming through the northeast late this weekend.  

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though.  That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland.  Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze.  A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley.  Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area.

Winds on LI gusted to 60-70 mph for much of the day as that storm passed by well to our west.  It was an amazing wind event.

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The one event I remember from that warm winter was the surprise high wind warming right before New Years. A neighbor had thrown out old paneling near the side of the curb. All of it blew away into peoples yards. The only memorable winters in the entire decade were 93-94 and 95-96. March 93 turned into a disappointment when the heavy snow quickly turned to heavy rain and we got a flash freeze the next morning. Had the March 93 superstorm taken a BM track, we could have easily seen widespread 20-30” wit some locally higher amounts possible. 

I received 10” from that storm in western Suffolk County.  After a period of heavy snow the storm transitioned to a period of a very nasty wind blown heavy sleet and freezing rain.  You had to be in eastern PA in order to get into the heavy snows.

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Apparently he's smoking some of what this guy smoked

 

He has 218,000 subscribers.  YouTube is paying him well.

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's amazing how much it takes for a good wall to wall winter, or a solidly above average snowfall winter. Shows how much of an anomaly 2000 through 2018 really was (or 55 through 69 for that matter). 

It was a nice pattern while it lasted.

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although winter 2022-2023 very likely won't resemble something like 2009-10, it could feature a few shots at snowfall. If everything goes well, we might see an El Niño winter that has one really big storm as happened during the strong ENSO events during 1982-83 and 2015-16.

77-78, which was also an El Niño winter featured a December that was mostly a torch here.  It was the type of pattern that would have brought tears to our warm weather fans.  There was one storm that brought snow and ice to central and northern NE and rain here on Christmas.  The pattern did not flip until the first week of January.  That is a prototypical El Niño for you.  
 

Regarding charts being shown for the projected pattern later in the month, a lot of them are showing a flow from off of the Pacific.  You can trace the height lines from here back to that source region on these charts.  That unfortunately is not going to get the cold air here that we are looking for.  The height lines leading to this region have to be traced back to NE Alaska or the Yukon.  I will provide a hint - look for forecasts of much above normal temperatures in Alaska.  Without this I wouldn’t get too excited about cold weather here.

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Anthony should move to Oswego NY.  They had their worse snow year on record last year and still had 47 inches.

I have been on vacation up there a few times and the whole region along Lake Ontario is really nice country.   It actually reminds me of the north shore of Long Island in some ways but is more rural.  There are a ton of wineries up there.  Real estate values correspond to expected annual snowfall totals by community and region.  The area going east from Rochester towards Oswego has progressively higher snowfall totals relating to the mean flow off of the lake.  The area to the west of Rochester has less lake effect snow.  The area to the south of Buffalo (Southtowns) which is affected by the Lake Erie snow belts gets much more snow and real estate values are priced accordingly.  Very interesting climatology up there.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong: NYC-CP and PHL have climate summary for yesterday as Trace snow... but I. must have missed this in the obs... no SB/SE, and I see the CF6 monthly summary that shows the dailies in PHL has no T pcpn and no T snow. Still waiting for NYC.  Not sure if controversy is looming on such a minor event but I might have missed something.  It's possible le local observers that supplement the snowfall data had an override.  

Unofficially, in my mind, it would seem both cities had brief Trace flurries but I might have missed something at the ASOS. If you find it, just let us know.  Thanks.

More on possible first measurable in the Dec thread.

TV media reports of flurries and snow showers in many parts of the Philly area earlier yesterday morning.  

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what exactly else would you like to use? the upcoming pattern looks great. if it was warm, people would have no question about it being right. it’s a silly argument

the blocking develops inside day 5. the features that force this pattern are moving into the short range

Are you on X (formerly known as Twitter)?

Healthy looking squall line moving eastward across central PA.  If this holds together it will be approaching the city during the early morning hours.

Up to .80”  46F

38 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Sleet and 39F

 

Light rain and 41F

42 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Looksd like virga (snow) over western Jersey?

There is light snow falling up along I84 in NE PA.  This is a quick light burst and precip has already changed over to rain back around Wilkes Barre and Hazleton.  The place to be for this one for snow is mainly going to be northern NE.

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the op runs are being silly…

 

the ens continue to show cold air in the east. The gefs and eps are very cold 

The Met on NBC 10 Philly led off his segment at 7PM with the 18z OP GFS for Tuesday.  And so the fun begins.

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in.

For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. 

Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means. 

18z GFS OP run does the happy hour tonight.

7 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Growing up in Allentown the neighbors who had been around for a while would talk about February 1983 before 1996 even though the latter ended up as a slightly bigger storm in terms of accumulations (30" vs 25"). I think it was the intensity that made such an impression, 1996 was 36 hours of steady snow while 83 came in like a wall and dropped 5" in an hour at one point.

83 came in like a wall where I was on the north shore of LI as well.

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Inland runner on the gfs for next Wednesday and then the cold rushes in.

Far interior NY gets snow

If you have not already done so check out the 12z CFS.

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Vortex record strong going into December is not great for a snowy start. My bet would be that any changes we would see will be when that starts to weaken towards the starts of January 

We are going to need an SSW event in order to get the cold air needed down here for significant snow.  For now, in spite of the record strong vortex the models just keep printing more fantasy maps.  As they say delayed but not denied…  

7 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Been the pattern for years now. Go west if you want winter for thanksgiving this year 

We were out in CO on vacation in September.  We spent a day near Aspen and were up on a hill and saw my first cat paws of the season on the windshield during a rain shower.  Even in the daytime it struggled to reach 60.  Being near 10K feet above sea level will get you that.  I know they have already had accumulating snow in the Denver area.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC and LGA along with the immediate shoreline like Long Beach and Breezy Point will probably have to wait until after Thanksgiving for the first freeze. 
 

Lows 

Jones Beach…37

Breezy point…37

Montauk…37

EWR…32

NYC…35

LGA….37

JFK…31

FRG…30

ISP….27

HPN…28

HVN…27

TEB….28

BDR….30

East Hampton…20

MJG….19

Low of 38 at my remote station at Cherry Grove on Fire Island.  The atmosphere never did decouple there.