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Posts posted by Tatamy

  1. 45 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

    I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20

    In so far as LI goes you would need SST’s below 45 in order for the atmosphere (with cold or cooling temperatures aloft) to overcome  onshore flow during a winter event.

  2. 21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    They are a great resource to show what is going on around the airports with a shorter range. I can remember one of NWS Mets commenting on using them during a severe storm outbreak to supplement the NWS radar. Since the radar echoes with snow were so intense during Nemo, they wrote a whole study on them. Maybe there was a location  between spotter measurements that picked up 7-8” inches in one hour. But with all the drifting, we may never be able to know for sure. I have heard 6” per hour rates. But there are always gaps between observations.



    On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors ZH near the surface.


    Thank you for your response.  Do you know of a site where the output from these sites can be accessed in real time?

  3. 3 hours ago, bluewave said:

    Chris - You mentioned the intensity of these echoes produced by Nemo.  Most of the radar obs that we speak of relating to weather comes from the NWS network of Dual-Pol Doppler sites.  The FAA also has a network of 80 radar sites (CARSR) around the country to serve its purposes.  I have read that these sites have the capability to monitor the weather and report it in the NWS six level format.  Do you know how the functionality of these sites/equipment compares to that of the NWS?

    • Like 2
  4. 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:


    There's probably multiple reasons for it....first, we're just entering winter so everyone is impatient.

    Second, I'll bet a large part of it is there are no snowstorms on the operational runs. That gets a lot weenies anxious, even though it shouldn't. Snowstorms occur from shortwaves.....good luck having models find a shortwave in the flow 10+ days out.

    Third....there is definitely Tip's psychology aspect to it. Some probably doom and gloom so they can either be "right" or "happy"....if they are wrong, it's cold and snowy and they won't care that they were wrong. But if they're right, they get to troll everyone and pat themselves on the back for calling the bust well in advance. 

    Regarding your second point those that are looking for snowstorms need to look at the last two runs of the CFS on Pivotal (snow depth).  

  5. 8 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

    They appear to be weakening but we could certainly see something in our area 

    Activity is moving very rapidly to the east.  Snow squalls currently in the Stroudsburg area near the Water Gap.  Squall also moving through the Reading area.  From radar I would guess that you would get no more than 5-10 minutes of snow in a burst when these move through.

    • Like 2
  6. 54 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

    How does one chase lake effect? Certainly don't want to drive right into it, or you're likely be stuck in your car (hopefully not an electric).  Somehow, you would have to forecast the exact location, find some rental shelter, with a place where your car is also sheltered, have somebody plow you out.  It's not like trying to find a tornado.  You drive to an area, forecast for potential development, and hopefully spot one and drive away from it.  To truly experience lake effect, I think you would have to be in it for a day or two?

    I will share a personal experience.  Many years ago I was driving my sister back to school at SUNY Oswego from LI after Christmas.  We drove up I-81 to the Syracuse area and proceeded to turn onto 481 to complete the trip.  It was late in the day and the sun was hitting the side of towering CU that made up the band.  It would have a great picture if I had a phone camera (this was 40 years ago so these were not yet invented).  We proceeded to drive into it and road conditions rapidly deteriorated.  It turned dark and the snow was falling so hard that it was blinding in the headlights.  The flakes were large and fluffy.  I found that since a plow had recently passed the black top was visible.  I ended up driving with the headlights off for a time and could actually see a lot better with the blacktop as a back drop.  We eventually had to turn off due to the conditions.  FWIW Reed Timmer is chasing the band near Buffalo so you can follow him.

    • Like 8
  7. 3 hours ago, bluewave said:

    First snow showers/squalls of the season here Friday evening.




    This event is showing up in a lot of the 12z runs as Walt has noted.  The area most likely to be impacted looks to be western and NW NJ and adjacent PA.  This looks to be tied to the passage of a Vorticity max through those areas tomorrow evening.

    • Like 2
  8. 1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

    Lake effect is great but I would be really pissed if I'm like 5 miles too far north or south of any band 

    There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there.  Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).  

    • Like 2
  9. 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Morning thoughts…

    Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

    New York City (Central Park): 51°

    Newark: 53°

    Philadelphia: 53°

    Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.


    New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9°

    Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9°

    Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7°

    Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning.

    • Like 1
  10. 4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

    Also in effect for Sussex County NJ.  Elevation will play a big factor.

    Very true on the elevation factor.  MPO in the Poconos at 2000 ft is forecast to get 1-3" along with 0.1 - 0.3" of ice accum.

  11. 11 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

    This is the most consistent location in PA., regarding a super snowstorm fantasy, I could find.       Other locations only show up on the this 18Z and the previous 18Z.      Not a favorable sign.


    Erie - Lake effect.

  12. 3 hours ago, eduggs said:

    Looks like possible flakes or sleet Tue. evening, esp N&W of 287. It's too early for any confidence, but not too early to talk about it. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show wetbulb temps near freezing Tue. evening as precip. arrives. Entrenched cold, dry air between 850mb and 950mb could start things off frozen if it doesn't get too warm during the day.

    You never know what can happen - isolated parts of southern IL picked up several inches last night in an overperforming band... and now a few inches into IN this morning. It will obviously be harder to maintain a frozen column east of the mountains, near the Atlantic, but seeing flakes in November is always nice.

    It might look like something like this from the 12z NAM:


    • Like 1
    • Weenie 1
  13. Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet.  Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts.  Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution.

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