powderfreak

Wishcasting, not modelology. Pattern screams east trend when the column is above 32F.

-5.6 on the month here at MVL through the first 10 days of the month. Cold but can be made up with warmth later on.

That 18z GFS run is insane. That is like half of the entire 16 day run spent below 0C at 850mb for a large part of the northeast. Not bad for May 18th....definitely way over-done but agree with Tip, this is pretty nuts to see an entire run so cold for May. Not just one shot and done, but like re-enforcing shots.

Where are these posts in the winter!? I agree the worst case scenario often doesn't happen, just like it usually doesn't in the winter when it comes to long range progs. You might have the best shot of nice-ish weather...I have my doubts in the mountains of any nice weather with upper level trough overhead.

Say no to heating but can't wait to run the AC 24/7 in late April and early May. You are an interesting cat. That doesn't mean I want it to be 42F like you will reply, but let's just do some 75/45 for a while. That'd be nice.

If those progs are close the peaks definitely will see flakes...even if just transient orographic showers. Now if we can get those cut off lows a bit further east then larger scale more organized upslope precip becomes possible.

Agree with you there... the locals will hike it instead of going to the gym, but the general public is well out of it by April.

Yeah love me some 40s and rain over the current low dew, mild temp days. So much more to do outside recreation-wise and work on the hill is so enjoyable in the cold rain.

Chasing butterflies wearing Daisy Dukes until October 15th in Tolland...that is if he can leave the air conditioned climate.

Yeah it's incredible. What an impressive tree. The time scale is crazy...nature does some pretty damn cool stuff.

What were 850s during the April heat of 2003?

It's that time of year when some forecast one thing and one thing only. Any day sunnier or warmer than expected will be AWT until October 15th, lol

Same here.

I was thinking that reading your post.....it's crazy what even green up can do to temps. Maximize the H85 temps before that.

That period did really nothing for us up here, grasshoppers with patience are still waiting lol.We know the Sultan of Frigidair will sniff out any potential well in advance.

When are you ever down on a possible snowstorm?

If it was a deep uniformed easterly flow with no inversion as I think Will mentioned earlier, you'd definitely have an unblocked flow. Probably centering the heaviest QPF over the crest with equal amounts on east and west slopes, or maybe even favoring the lee side a little bit due to the strong wind causing drift. But then you'd see a very sharp QPF gradient as you got to the end of that spill over.

That thread is a good one with the amount of uncertainty even as it started. Those are always the fun ones to re-read. No one is really sure what's about to happen.

It's funny knowing your posting style now after the past three winters of big storms and snow, and posting back in 2011-2013 until Feb. like a complete reversal in the winter threads with confidence now. I'm going the exact other way, haha. I was confident after 2010-2011 winter, and even '11-'12 wasn't as bad here as elsewhere with a couple big events (upslope). The past few winters I've definitely been getting more and more jaded and antsy for a good run. January 2014 was the worst for me haha.

Fascinating. I don't know what the distances are around those parts, but very cool that the west slope of the ORH/Tolland Hills (eastern CT Valley) had that much more precip from spillover before the more severe effects of sinking air took over. Probably right on the gradient between 3-4" QPF and 1-2" in the valley bottom. Would've been awesome to see in modern days with the amount of CoCoRAHS observers, could plot a very good liquid equiv map.

Jeez.... that's got caking damage written all over it.

Wow that's some moisture. How'd Moosup do?

Ahhh that is much different than what I was envisioning from MetHerb's post. Yeah that's definitely a downslope screw job then. I thought the valley had 2-3" of QPF. Disregard my previous post lol.

True, especially in such a tight rain/snow line. I'd be curious to see total QPF values plotted, but if what MetHerb said about getting 2.5" QPF and very little snow, that's still a huge QPF event for December. The down sloping probably did add 0.5-1.0F though to relative elevations in the valley compared with east of the ORH hills and that's all it takes when it's an already very marginal situation. But did eastern Mass have higher QPF, better forcing and dynamic effects? The CT valley definitely would've had some compressional warming, but it doesn't sound like they were dim sum while the hills were pounding if they still pulled 2"+ QPF. What did BDL have for liquid? Was CEF around back then?

Ahhh ok so it wasn't necessarily a downslope valley event but more a pure elevation event. I usually put downslope in the "it doesn't precipitate much" category while moisture gets wrung out on the slopes. Not sure what anyone classifies that storm as.So massive QPF event with a very tight rain/snow line. Obviously probably some upslope assist in dynamic cooling, and compressional warming on the downside, but I love those tight snow lines. We see those gradients on the mountain but it's much more dramatic when it happens in populated areas so close to the surface. Rain below 2,000ft and 30" of snow at 3,000ft isn't as dramatic as rain at sea level and 30" at 1,000ft. Reminds me of the April 2012 upslope event at Stowe where the office at 1,500ft had 3" of like white water, but it was 18"+ just 500ft higher at 2kft, and 30"+ above 2,500ft. Total QPF was almost 4" at the summit Coop. One of the highest QPF events I've ever seen from orographics. No thermal advection, just a steady state heavy precip event where heavy rates can only bring the snow level down so far.