powderfreak

I get the sense the competitive spirit is coming out, lol. All snow goes towards climo... but I find synoptic storms are fluky on the whole, you are at the whims of mid-level forcing and stuff like that... like that early season storm. Those storms are when it’s anyone’s game, even Whitefields lol. If you get a mid level band in the right place the mountains don’t matter, it can crush more right in the valley bottoms. Coastal storms and synoptic events are definitely bigger wildcards to me, depending on where the mid-level stuff ends up. Low climo snow places can get 36” while a “snow zone” spot gets 14”.

Ahh they are turning on the heated pavers. It’s melting, lol.

When was the last time they didn't open by tday? Hmm 2011? 2006 wasn’t until December sometime. 2015 was actually a good opening after a cold snap but then it went downhill fast. Several years have gone to the Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving. We do think we can get next Wednesday.

Stowe just delayed opening until at least the 25th. Will get a good 48-hour run now but the extended doesn’t inspire confidence.

1.5" of cruchy snow at ski area base. Snow globe snowing pretty good at the moment. I bet there was some decent QPF in the 1.5" as it seems like an inch of just graupel balls and then some flakes on top. Big fluffers falling up here now. Definitely another world in the upslope zone at 1,500ft.

Winter. 1300+ feet is the magic zone.

Healthy dusting of a few tenths. Nice to see some white again.

I bet you’ll see some snow soon. We went from graupel over to fluffy flakes and ground has whitened up with this squall line. Looks like it may be redeveloping south towards MPV area with some of those cores south of 89.

Some decent graupel squalls. A tenth or so of dippin’ dots now whitening the deck and garden. I’m seeing 1-2” on the cams up high and looks like 1500ft is white now with accumulation. This squall strengthened nicely as it hit the spine. Best snow/graupel of the day so far.

Plenty of snow showers out there this evening but not seeing any accumulation, still too warm here in town for anything more than flakes flying. Looks like Jay Peak area has had a steadier stream of moisture past couple hours and it’s building up a bit to the north in Franklin County.

Looks similar here. Another 122 in VT which I think is the daily record.

We might have over-sold it, but despite the snowfall averages we still see plenty of crap weather. It’s not all candy canes and snow pillow gum drops from October to May. You’ll see this even in mid-winter in a bad pattern where it’s a 2,500ft snow level spitting mixed crap and windy. Looks like we have plenty of chances over the next ten days to straddle the line between puke and snow showers lol.

Been getting rounds of snow showers and graupel here at 1,500ft. No accumulation except the last graupel shower was enough to whiten the mulch beds lol. It still isn’t that cold out.

Some white up there this morning.

Ha I set myself up for that. Can you tell a direction? That’s one of my biggest associations to make with various weather in the mountains... wind direction. If wind blows from this direction, this is usually the outcome, etc.

Nice I was wondering if you’d start as snow. What’s your wind doing?

Yeah the sleet and snow makes sense, it’s in the 20s at 3-4000ft up here. MMNV1 has been 24-27F all day.

Evap cooling cause that?

Incredible south wind up here at 3,600ft and it’s 27F on the shelter thermometer. But I can’t see any sign of precipitation on any horizon as I survey the kingdom. No virga streaks or anything. Mid level cloud deck is pretty high up. But holy crap at this wind, I’m frozen solid. Just unrelenting.

It's pretty buried on the BTV site, but it's under the Mansfield MesoNet page: https://www.weather.gov/btv/profile Under the temperature profile graph, there are Froude Model Forecasts. I'm a big fan of the 4km northern Greens as that's the most applicable. When it tries to blend in all of the Greens it gets noisy.

Just a very basic look at the 18z models seems to show we should have some snow in the air between Mon-Wed. I wouldn't read into the exact amounts at all, but that's a classic signal for just rounds of snow showers for the North Country. These snow maps are sort of over-selling it a bit as it's a 3-day total but ratios are likely better than the 10:1 here... but it'll sublimate too. Models just seem to have rounds of light QPF moving through in a pretty cold air mass for N.VT and N.NH. Probably the type of stuff where a 0.25" falls, then nothing for a while, then 24 hours later a round brings 0.5" to dust things up again, etc. Should at least have a couple days of snow in the air. GFS is certainly a bit more organized than the ECM for orographic precipitation, but given fast westerly flow I'm leaning towards a less organized but more showery/squally type pattern. But I will say this is the time of year when any streamer moisture from Lake Ontario can easily put down 2-3" of fluff in a relatively short period of time. ECMWF GFS

That’s great having you up at base of Jay Peak. Certainly nothing near that down at Stowe, just that dusting.

Didn’t he say it was the first surgery out of two? Good pick up though, he rarely misses a day on here.

Hope the best for your mom. Sorry dude. That first paragraph really resonates with me as that’s been my life thought process. I feel very fortunate to have truly enjoyed doing things that bring me joy. I also knew at a relatively young age what brought me joy and it feels selfish, but I guess the decision was not to deny myself that during a time of my life when my body could do it. My wife is different and always says she’s jealous that I know what makes me click.

Gotta start somewhere lol. Tenth of an inch on the evergreens in mid-November. Headline news.