powderfreak

Looks like there could be some decent squalls tomorrow with the FROPA. A good deal of them have a nice max right near J.Spin's house, but none are better than the Canadian version of the HRRR.... EURO... 3KM NAM has it more down near the Killington region.

Stowe used to have it off the Gondola when I first moved up here. We'd ride the Gondola up and then ski adjacent trails by headlamp. Over time though, it just wasn't worth it, low skier traffic. It just gets too cold and windy at night on Mansfield for people to want to partake in a meaningful way, apparently. The light poles are still there (telephone poles) and we used to test them before night events at the Cliff House. So they could be turned on in the event of an evac. Can never be too prepared when people are dressed in high-end suits and dresses, riding the Gondola at night up Vermont's highest peak to a party at the top.

We are at the warmest temps of the day now with strong roaring WNW winds. 40F currently at MVL with gusts near 40mph now that the wind direction has changed. Almost to the point where I'm hoping we don't lose power. These are some very strong winds moving down the east slope. Wouldn't be surprised if there were some localized 50mph or more gusts just a little uphill of here on the east side of the spine. Luckily it's winter, if there were leaves on the trees this would be a big problem, ha.

I just asked the question in the NNE thread... something seems off. A high of 58F at 1,200ft? The dew points look reasonable but those temps... light snow under 2 mile vis at temps around 40F all morning?

What have you seen for temps? The MPV/Montpelier ASOS has to be wrong today, no? It's showing a temperature of 56F at 7pm and had a high of 58F (at 1,200ft)? KMPV 272351Z AUTO 30011G20KT 10SM SCT031 OVC039 13/01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP155 60002 T01330006 10144 20044 53018 All day this was way higher than BTV's readings and this morning those haze obs should be snow obs... sustained under 2 mile vis snow and temps around 40F seems off for that elevation.

Even this morning, a great example of why BTV torches... they were above freezing and just ripping south winds of 40-50mph gusts (not ideal for snow preservation), while around here at the Morrisville-Stowe Airport the ASOS was 15F. 7am Observations BTV... 34F, melting, with sustained winds of 22mph, gusting 44mph out of the south (the Champlain Valley funnel). MVL... 15F with calm winds and a cold snowpack.

Richmond is often the line... Exit 11. JSpins zone will have two feet while you are looking at a crusty 6” by the time you hit the low lands because that’s where the east flow downslope off the Spine really becomes pronounced. I mean, BTV literally has sinking air and compressional warming coming from both east and west directions (Greens and Adirondacks)... and then on top of that they are exposed to often ripping southerly flow, absolutely zero radiational cooling (because the wind is always moving in that wide valley due to funneling), and their only “cold” flow option is a north wind. It is very hard to stay cold there. It has to be CAA from the north. Eventually a system will pass with a southwind and then its warm and windy... goodbye snow. When it’s 2am and it’s 16F and calm at MVL/MPV...but 36F at BTV and south at 20kts... that snow is melting and evaporating while the other two are just another winter night.

Oh no they torch. It’s only been getting hotter too for whatever reason. Like how the other day was the first 40+ temp this season and the average first 40+ day is January 7th... that’s only a week into the New Year before they hit 40F on average. This year they made it 7 weeks.

Yeah the snow cam at 3000ft has flakes flying the past couple hours and judging by the temps, I’d bet the snow level is like 2500ft. It seems like the mid-levels cooled enough for elevation dependent snow showers at the moment.

Yeah that’s why it’s hard to quantify a given wind direction with upslope/downslope couplets... there was a strong QPF gradient on the meek models between north of the Presidentials and south of them. The inversion height plays a big role in upslope/downslope... if it’s up at like 800mb and the warm layer is at 750mb blasting SW flow, he probably is in the QPF max as the Whites act like a ramp for that flow and deposit the best QPF just downwind of the barrier. You’re right, there’s been a serious lack of SW flow events with the strongest lift at like 700mb, with a widespread 0.50-1.0 QPF. Today’s seemed like much lower level stuff. Mansfield summit usually doesn’t sniff freezing in many SWFE but the summit spiked to 34F at one point this evening. Often it can rot at like 23F at the summit with freezing rain while it’s above freezing at 800mb.

Yeah I agree in that general sense... I’ve noticed the temperatures are very similar. Precipitation patterns can be different but seem to arrive at a similar destination even if they took different routes to get there if that makes sense. I think the snowfall here at 1500ft on a seasonal scale is very close to the observer just up the hill from you. I always sort of thought the snow average was like 300” up at 3,000ft and 200” at 1500ft but after extending my knowledge with each passing year, my gut says it’s probably more like 180” and 280” as the past 5 years have dragged down my average thoughts a bit. Only 2016-17 was truly big but the other 4 years out of the last 5 have been lower.

Yeah you and Brian hands down take the SFC CAD awards time and time again.

Yeah we are over to just rain showers at 36F at 1500ft. Looks like MVL is showing unknown precip at 37F in the valley but it’s rain.

Oh we lost the Gondola first because those cabins are like kites... the FourRunner hung on for another couple hours but kept getting auto-slows by the lift for excessive winds. Then that was put on wind hold. Not long after that we lost Sensation Quad due to wind. Wind was absolutely nuts above 2,500ft. Sustained 50mph and gusting 90mph at the height of it.... finally started dropping now that the low level jet moved through.

This looks chilly.

Flow looks to shift by 4pm for Phin, I bet some more robust precip moves in soon.

Weather is awesome, love watching how it interacts with the mountains. Always been fascinated with it since a kid, ha.

That's the benefit of the mountains, even when meso-scale stuff goes the wrong way... it's still fascinating. I love that meteorological stuff. Can see some brighter skies at times on your cam aloft it looks like. I love when we are getting downsloped a bit and then the flow changes a bit and you see the clouds darken and precip roll back in.

Yeah we have now been heavy wet aggregates for the last 5 minutes or so, no liquid anymore. Some of the largest flakes you’ll ever see lol. Like 1-2” in diameter pancakes.

Graupel for sure... like skiing on ball bearings. But no legit hail. We’ve had some upslope events with squalls and thunder/lightning that drop like 3-4” of graupel that skis extremely smooth.

We had some snow earlier and are now getting a mix of literally every type of precip that can fall from the sky. Big flakes, freezing rain, pellets, mist... lol. No hail or graupel though.

Downsloping up high is warming the mid-level layer. Just a slight sinking motion at 850-700mb can cause it to go above freezing. CAD locking in the surface temps but aloft there's some sinking motion there. Can see it on the 3km NAM... see the above freezing 850mb temps in the lee side of MWN from the wind direction. Can see the Green Mtn Peaks in N.VT doing the same thing.

Nice initial band of big flakes that coated the ground pretty well for only 15 minutes of snow, ha. Know when big aggies start from the get-go that it’s marginal aloft.

Yeah maybe that's the difference. I wonder what it's like outside of the bubble. The longest trip we seem to make in the winter is to Burlington every couple few weeks. In a ski town, there's a common thread. Similar to a surf or beach community. It's a community that's very interested in the out-of-doors that does it for me. There's an energy here and in the mountains that's upbeat. People are excited. That's definitely the ski culture and the vacation town feel. It's hard to get a depressed feeling in an area that seems highly desirable... like people work hard for their money, they save it up, and they look forward to using it to come to where we live. The COVID comments are interesting. It seems like it isn't a thing anymore except for wearing masks and being a little more conscious of how close you are to someone. No real opinion on it from me, but there seems to be no economic problems locally. Quite the opposite at times, 3 small businesses opened though one was PK Coffee that closed and reopened in another spot along the Mountain Road. Scary for when there's no pandemic though, with the free market roaring the demand might be nuts. Despite the very high demand to visit, the only problem for the town has been the lack of employees for area businesses from the previous President's ban on temporary work visa's (which I don't disagree with when so many are unemployed, but fails to realize the realities of seasonal employment).

Yeah I remember rafting the Deerfield and then also taking inflatable kayaks down it... Zoars Gap I think it’s called in there. That’s good stuff. Up here while the water is clear, don’t have that stuff in general. It’s either like a lazy clear river or a flooding muddy torrent. I like the Berkshires, for that latitude, they have the hill town vibe and culture for sure.