powderfreak

Contact your doctor if your horn lasts more than 4 hours.

Ahhh ok, now it'll start to snow . Safe travels dude and look forward to a better showing next winter.

I still like 3-6” for the ski areas, there’s a reason I went that route. 3” is a pretty low floor for high elevation given that cyclonic flow. The chances of a high bust like 8-12” are definitely diminishing. My guess is the ski areas report a 3-6” event with still a chance at some 7-8” amounts at the summits by Friday morning with the continued upslope flow.

Yeah they've been pretty optimistic in some of these all winter. I definitely lean conservative and in a year like this it has worked out very well, lol. Time to make hay is tomorrow morning. Good H7 fronto along a good thermal gradient and the meso-models show some prolonged convergence at H7 along that thermal boundary.

Feeling decent about 6" for the ski area. I think 2-M still is too warm down under 1,500-1,000ft for significant accumulations. But from 1,500ft and up hanging out at the ski area all day starting at 5am tomorrow, should be a fun event to watch unfold. My call was 3-6" wet snow at most elevations, spot 7-8" possible summits. We'll see how it goes.

There have been several memes, it’s hilarious . The number of tractor trailers who get stuck and shut the road down for hours is like nowhere else in New England.

2-meter temperatures are marginal. I've been thinking this is more of an elevation event than maps show. Flash freeze possible as it ends but looks like there's a long period of elevation dependent snowfall as the boundary stalls.

Yup, fits my thoughts well with an elevation dependent event.

I think the trend is legit as many have speculated earlier on in the big thread... progressive and weaker/not as wrapped up. You end up with a more 3-7" type event that's displaced eastward. As always, I set my bar at 3 inches ha. That number is when the vibe "feels snowy"... like yesterday morning's upslope burst at the ski area. At 3 inches it feels wintry. Plowable.

It was a perfect afternoon for a hike up through Smugglers Notch on the closed RT 108. Snowpack is real low for this time of year (of course). The sound of icefall thundering down off the towering Notch cliffs further up the road added some spooky noise to an otherwise sunny warm day.

To be honest I think this is more elevations dependent than models show and also less snow due to lower ratios. I could see 70% of those 10:1 maps. More like the ICON’s look of a 3-6” event for most with some spot 6-7” at the peaks.

On a tangent... A whitewater park is different than a water park... not sure the plans in Franklin but it’s usually utilized by kayakers and some surfers primarily. They alter the River and build in rapids and drops, with viewing spots alongside it usually. Whitewater parks are becoming more popular to give kayakers a place to play in more urban areas.

Yeah looks like you’d end as snow there. I’m all for some east ticks, because given the set-up if you are getting some snow, we’ve probably moved firmer into the goods over here, ha. The 18z HRRR was pretty solid in northern Coos County.

Yeah nice tick east there on the 18z NAM. Maybe all the east ticks we see with lows that often screw us to the delight of NH/ME will work out this time because it’s starting so far west, .

Unrelated to COVID, just on a private business standpoint... can’t they do pretty much whatever they want as long as it doesn’t discriminate against a “protected class” such as race, gender, disability, etc? Like if Wal-Mart wants you to hold your right hand on top of your head at all times while in the store (or something ridiculous like that), isn’t that up to them? People boycott and business levels/revenue sorts things out like, maybe that’s not a good policy when sales fall 45%. On a minor level it could be like a place requiring closed toed shoes instead of sandals for *your* safety for certain activities. The new one is for “our employees safety” and that seems to have a lot of latitude too. I’m curious from any legal folks on here what limits does a private business have in implementing whatever policy they want? Not a COVID question, but just assume business XYZ wants you to only wear a red shirt while in their store. Can they do that?

Great AFD, and love the last part about the Watch decision. Very reasonable to think it may be Advisory snow but potential exists for more. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 PM EDT Tuesday...Active weather returns mid-week as an upper trough digging into the northern Plains this afternoon will track into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday, and then into the Northeast Thursday and Thursday night. Strong south/southwesterly flow ahead of the attending cold front will usher in PWATs up to 1" with rain becoming widespread across northern New York by early afternoon and spreading eastward into Vermont by early evening. Hereafter as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted, secondary cyclogenesis occurs near the Delmarva Peninsula stalling the fronts eastward progression as the newly formed surface low tracks into southern New England by 12z Thursday. Rain will change to snow across northern New York from 06- 12Z with the frontal boundary likely draped through the Champlain Valley come sunrise Thursday. As the surface low slowly trudges northeast to the Maine coast by the end of the day, rain continues to transition to snow across VT during the morning hours and continues into Thursday afternoon before tapering to higher elevation snow showers Thursday night. Based on current ensemble and deterministic model output, median snowfall amounts across northern New York continue to be in the 6- 10" range, but due to a faster changeover to snow across northern Vermont the potential now exists for 4-7" across the northern Champlain Valley and portions of the central/northeast Vermont. With this in mind, have expanded the previously issues Winter Storm Watch to include these areas, knowing full well that some areas will likely transition to an advisory, but acknowledging that the potential exists for higher amounts. &&

I like that forecast. Western side of the Spine heavy favorites for sure but also northern Champlain Valley. That map is very close to the 12z Euro Snow Map.

I heard the side effects are minimal except you may feel a desire to upgrade Windows on your PC for about the first 24 hours.

I mean, I don't know how they measure their snow but even still.... I had the same number of inches on my board/table at 750ft in a valley bottom as they have at 2,000+ feet. Normally ski area snowfall is an upper elevation reading/number as well that reflects the skiing experience. Wildcat and Pinkham Notch can get some monster storms. Not so far this winter it seems.

Meanwhile in Canada, the largest ski resort on the planet in terms of skier visits is shutting down again. British Columbia going back to closures for non-essentials it sounds like... gyms, bars, restaurants, ski areas effected.

Yeah I think we could do something with that. But yeah unless we get a couple biggies, this spring will be the “how long do snowmaking runs last?” type of spring. Last year would’ve been skiing glades into early May.

18z NAM with rain to a prolonged period of sleet then snow... big snow in NNY.

Good old New England in late March.... snowy morning with several hours of light to moderate snow down at MVL in the valley and several hours of moderate to heavy snow at the ski area. Now the sun is out and it's getting warm and torching away the fresh few inches. The plaza heaters aren't on but as soon as the sun came out in full that 3" just torched away in under two hours and now the pavers are just dry. No trace that it was a plowable snowfall except for the piles, ha.

Agreed with both your posts. I think a bit weaker and east. Maybe a NAM/ICON type solution? Though just saying those two models as more possible than ECM/GFS/GGEM reads weird.

Yeah for sure. Champlain Valley cools off very quickly usually in those situations and up to the west slopes. From what I can see it looks more like a sleet profile east of the Spine. There's definitely a climatology norm for upslope cooling assist on the western slopes in marginal CAA situation. It's sort of like a very mini-2011 style with low tracking through SNE/E.NNE at this junction with cold air coming in but the low level cold seems to usher in first down the Champlain Valley.