nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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That snow would have staying power with the advertised cold that will shift east at the end of December as @frd posted.
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The HP was actually strengthening as it was dropping south, too. Christmas-eve-eve snow breaking out in DC Friday morning. Moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon. Yes, I’m doing PBP on a 280H+ run of the GFS OP. ETA: NS vort dropping down from the plains creates a low in the Great Lakes. GFS eventually has a low in the gulf, low off the Jersey coast, and a low in the Great Lakes. A window to certainly keep an eye on.
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GFS setting something up for the 23. 50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.
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18z GFS better upslope setup for the mountains after the initial ice storm.
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Ice storm on the Euro for the mountains and west of 81. Primary hanging around in northern WI is interfering with what would be a good upslope setup. Should still support snow showers over the weekend.
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I wish CBS was showing the Bills/Jets game here instead of the Ravens.
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Yep, its rare that we score flush hits on every opportunity - usually if there are 4 chances in a good pattern, we’ll eventually score on the 3rd or 4th especially once the pattern has established and the cold is in place. The good news is we’ll have cold in place.
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It caught up to the Euro IRT timing. Now showing precip breaking out ~12z Thursday. GFS has been all over the place with this event - not saying this depiction won’t happen, but i have to put less confidence in the GFS overall.
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I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this.
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Wonky depiction - something tells me it doesn’t happen as shown.
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Tis the season for NAM extrapolation - NAM at the end of the run certainly doesn’t look like it’s about to go the way of yesterday’s GFS runs that basically took a buzz saw to the vort. Looks similar to the globals at 84.
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Sleeting here now too!
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Thanks Will, how does that compare to 00z low positions?
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In that case, don’t come….you may have bad luck.
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Depending on the exact track/setup, the upslope may be higher than snow from the coastal as its passing our latitude. Ratios would be better too.
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Yeah, way too far for those fine details but this setup and potential track (and time of year) favors interior for sure. Coastal plain will have temp issues (most storms we do so its no surprise with this one). I'm excited for our first real threat of the season to track though.
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It’s not done yet.
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Euro gets precip in by sunrise on Thursday, a good 4-5 hours quicker than GFS.
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Smoking the western burbs at 132. 81 crew will like this run so far.
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Current top CIPS analog is December 12, 1992 for the GFS run.
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Feels like a solid winter day especially with the cloud cover - almost has a snow look (if only).
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CMC is a pretty high impact event for the mountains. Ice to mix to snow with the initial system then long duration upslope. Would put down a solid snow cover that would last for weeks with the pattern.
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Looking through the 6z GEFS members, it definitely made a jump towards a coastal redeveloper as others have mentioned this morning - there’s timing differences amongst the members but this gives you a good idea of the potential in these few frames.
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WPC maps does not seem to favor the sheared out version GFS has been showing (although 6z took a step towards a coastal redevelopment that the Euro and CMC has been showing). Their discussion favors the Euro at this time.
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Agree with everything you said here especially the last part. I was already looking at alternative flights home from San Diego that doesn’t have me land at 7p Thursday. For the storm, I still think first flakes are a real possibility for many. Favored locations inland possible for minor accumulations.
