nj2va

Was just looking through the 18z Euro and agree that its better for the far western zones in that it flips back to sleet/snow from freezing rain during the event. The 6” line is close to the M/D border in western MD.

Yes, CAD doesn't hold on as long on the ridges/mountains vs valley areas - places like Cumberland west to Frostburg are better spots for icing. Similarly, I've seen plenty of setups where Garrett holds onto all snow longer than higher elevations in WV (Canaan) that flip earlier to sleet once the mid levels warm. In our 6 years of having our house out there, I've been there for a few 0.25"+ ice accretions but wasn't high impact in terms of power disruptions, etc. The one that does come to mind was maybe 2 (or 3) years ago where Deep Creek got over 0.5" of ice accretion and had power outages and we lost two trees on our property. I'm terrible at remembering dates/exacts of events and we weren't there for it, but that was one of the more memorable ones that I can recall. ^^That's a good first call for ice out there IMO

That’s an OP, we should expect there to be errors in the 7 day+ timeframe.

Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday.

I’m taxiing waiting to take off at Reagan. I think I see LWX’s temp sensor behind our jet engine.

Another gorgeous December sunrise.

There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame. OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out. Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby.

All about expectations. It’s been an uphill battle for the coastal plain but there’s a shot at seeing some frozen at the start of it. N&W in the game for a mixed bag.

Incoming on the GFS for the 23rd again.

Re-posting here. 00Z GFS made a decent shift to a colder solution for the area.

Started a thread for the Thursday/Friday deal since we’re ~78H from precip onset for parts of the forum.

Threat of winter event for the area with precip arriving in parts of the subforum within 78 hours. Potential exists for an impactful event, especially in the western zones.

That’s a pretty good shift on the GFS to more frozen across the area.

We probably need a thread for Thursday since it’s in the MR and this can stay focused on the upcoming pattern and potential for threats around Christmas.

GFS brings in precip in the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday between 1a-4a. DPs in the teens across the area / temps in the upper 20s to low 30s, with a mixed bag of precip including freezing rain, sleet, and snow. this run is definitely more favorable to frozen precip in the area.

Fantastic post. Also easy for dummies like me to comprehend.

Ovi 797!

GFS and Euro both creeping up the start times too…now overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

What a 2nd period by the Caps. That penalty shot by MJo was pretty.

I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking. That WAA was fun.

Regarding Thursday’s storm, one thing to keep an eye on regarding potential for icing are the dews. 18z Euro is showing DPs at 12 out in the mountains and teens/low 20s for the 81 corridor/N MD. This would lead to evaporational cooling as precip breaks out overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Not a bad signal for 12 days out. Also, the 500 NHEM loop on the 18z is .

Nice weather for our neighborhood’s tree lighting, caroling, Santa visit for the kids earlier today. It was nice that it wasn’t 65 degrees either.

GFS setting up again at the end of its run. What a weenie run.

Sun angle starts increasing next week.