nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Waste of $$. Nice runoff for the Bay too.
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Pretty amazing precision by the models honing in on western NC jackpot for several days. The ensembles bounced around up here in terms of the snowfall mean (seemed like a ping pong match as each model run came out) but as I think about it more, that was due to two camps that wobbled back and forth until they settled on a southern storm. We'll get ours soon enough.
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Perhaps we'll get a good NAMing tonight at 0z?
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I noticed that too lol.
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JV models. The SREF will save us.
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All primary and secondary roads around here have been brined....at least in VA.
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Ugh, I got excited when I saw the GGEM map but then realized that was yesterday's map. womp womp.
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Eek, its batting it down even more in today's run.
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Interesting how the confluence is actually get stronger the closer we get to the storm....the opposite seems to always happen if memory serves right. We'll have our chances in the Mid-Atl. soon enough.
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This
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Hope you’re wrong. I’ll give you credit for going out on a limb and taking a chance though.
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VDOT pretreating roads starting tomorrow: https://wtop.com/virginia/2018/12/va-preps-for-potential-sunday-monday-snow/ Mattie, when will schools close?
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lol. Always #1
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Looks like RIC will be the northern cutoff of precip on the GFS.
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Hopefully NOAA is smarter than the models.
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Who woulda thunk we’d be sitting here in early December talking about too much confluence suppressing a storm into NC and northern SC?
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It looked better early but the wheels fell off the train towards the end. The confluence does not want to give up.
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You’re telling me. By 75, its pressing down a touch more than 18z. ETA: it’s like the giant middle finger stop sign from the NS.
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Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front. Confluence in NE is north of 18z. We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.
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You could easily save $$ by using the free sites and browsing each of the sub forums to get what you need. I may decide to do that eventually if weather models doesn’t improve its reliability.
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Unfortunatlely it’d shift north 24 hours out and miss us.
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Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here? I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event. Though honestly, I don’t have a laser precise memory like some here where they remember every event like clockwork. We’re on life support but I still think this comes north some.
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They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on. The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.
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It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence. If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here. That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.
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I’ve always used weatherbell until this season and I’m using Weathermodels. I like some aspects of it but overall, find it SO SLOW and frankly unreliable to get the maps I’m looking for (I.e. they don’t load all the time). I’m honestly used to the navigation now and prefer it over wxbell...just took some getting used to. My biggest complaint is how unreliable it is when the data is coming in...or even once the run is done. I’ve even tried it on Safari, Firefox, and Chrome...all the same issues.
