nj2va

This is the best the GEFS has looked for next weekend. eta: ninja’d by Tombo (great to see you here man!)

Go Ravens and Bears

The ignore feature works wonders...now if people could stop responding to him, I wouldn’t have to see his drivel.

A few drive bys from uniformed NYC forum weenies this morning isn’t helping matters up there. That central PA snowstorm guy needs to add some of his drivel up there...like pouring gasoline on a fire.

I think all systems go for a major pattern change starting to take shape by next weekend..dominoes start falling within 7 days on the ensembles. We’ll see an initial push of cold air but the first western ridge will shift east across the CONUS while the PAC retrogrades and locks in a favorable PAC with high heights in the PNA and EPO domains. Meanwhile, -NAO and -AO will continue to build. While there will be cold to tap from Canada, I don’t anticipate wall to wall cold in this pattern over us, which will probably cause some panic here. But as Bob and PSU alluded to yesterday, we don’t do well when we have a PV sitting over us. I think its going to be a very active pattern with multiple chances. We won’t hit a home run with every chance but we’ll do quite well IMO. Active times ahead. eta: 19-21st is a period to watch for sure.

7th straight day with negative SOI.

I’m happy we’re tracking something within 200 hours that’s not a 384H pattern change. Even if we fail next weekend (which is the likelier outcome at this point), it doesn’t sting as much considering all signs are pointing to multiple chances after that. Who’s starting the thread for it? :ducks:

I think its a TT issue...the link to the NCEP site that Yoda posted has all the panels. Just not as “pretty” as the TT stuff.

Isn’t this the backup kicker attempting the onside kick?

Wouldn’t take much correction on the GFS for a hit though.

Very little interaction between the NS and SS on the GFS so far.

No, nowhere near as much as Carroll.

I hope the Cowboys win. Carroll is a tool

I had dinner at Chesapeake & Maine back in June when I was in Rehoboth for a week with some friends...really great place. Loved the vibe of it and had a great beer selection.

Don’t see snow maps but total QPF is about 1.8-1.9” so 18-22” with ratios.

Probably belongs in banter or the digital snow thread but the CFS has a 977 low east of Ocean City on the 19th. CCB over the area. Lol. Actually coincides with FV3 and EPS signal. If only Mitch still posted here...

+1 to NorthArlington...gotta say the wind storm. I was in Deep Creek so missed the impact here but it was intense out there with some snow too.

You worry too much. Everything is coming along just fine. Confidence is pretty high that we see the much advertised pattern change...obviously patterns don’t 100% mean snow but its hard to imagine a shutout in the advertised LR patterns, especially when looking at the monthlies. And yes, I know we should roll our eyes at the skills of models past two weeks but the weeklies have been consistently showing a pretty epic pattern setting in, and now the ensembles are picking up on that pattern beginning to take shape.

Thanks, that was my thinking too but good to get some confirmation.

Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR? That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy? I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think.

Sure does seem the -NAO wants to be a consistent feature on the LR guidance. lines up well with the weeklies, monthlies, and seasonal forecasts for end of Jan and February.

It’s a day off but EPS has a signal for a coastal a day or so later.

Nw Baltimore wx and I gotta join you on one of your Rehoboth brewpub trips.

I’ve missed the blues over us. Also, signs of a great pattern are fantasy day blizzards. It’s happening.

Exactly. And the PAC is still pretty progressive at this point so I imagine the models will have a hard time until we’re under 100 hours.