nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I loved today’s weather. Sat out on the patio this afternoon and enjoyed the sun. It felt great for the psyche too.
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Not interested in tracking snow patterns anymore. Tracking sustained 50s (and eventually 60s) now.
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Glad y’all are getting snow!
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Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion.
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The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm. I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern. January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.
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Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says. Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees. I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible.
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As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that.
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In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.
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Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO?
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GEPS (not the best ensemble but hey, why not?) trying for a ridge bridge in way out in la la land. Would help displace the TPV south and help build heights into GL. Drink up, weenies.
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Even with the torch period coming up (agree with you on 95/east making a run at 70+), what I like seeing is the cold to our north. Seems likely we’d see that shift east with a more favorable upper air pattern & I always like seeing snowpack building to our NW in Canada. This is probably totally weenie rationale, but I feel like that helps reinforce cooler air if we can get flows out of the NW.
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Yeah, agree that things aren’t looking good for them. I’m at about 16” in McHenry this year where we average ~110” a year. We spent a week there over New Years and went skiing a few times. Not many trails open (~12 or so I think) & a sustained period of low 50s again like it was between Christmas & the 30th will really hurt. But any snow is good and will help them rebuild what they lost during the mild period before NYE (even if its gone after the next warm period).
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00z GFS is a boon from Sunday through middle of next week for the mountains. Ski resorts need those upslope conditions to help rebuild their pack through natural & snow making before Hades moves in the following week. Their winter economies rely on the snow/cold.
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Would have expected us to be solidly in the AN vs equal chances for BN/AN.
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Curious as well...perhaps the orientation of the trough? Still positively tilted.
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That’s what I’ve been paying attention to as well since (thanks to your research thread) and remembering something Wes (I think) talked about a few years ago, Scand ridges generally predict more favorable patterns for us even with a crap Pacific.
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This is really great, thanks for doing it. Maybe we can get a Hudson Bay ridge pop up magically to save the crap January pattern & gives us a fluke warning level storm.
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an OP run at 300 hours is going to have run over run changes.
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Specifics to be worked out but the major globals sure like a storm in the east between Christmas and New Years. 12z GFS is a big cutter but its ripe for lake effect & upslope as the low pushes east to the north of the region.
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I’d say yes seeing how things are progressing but I don’t have access to the paid sites that go past D10.
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Time for a new thread. Let’s do it.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
nj2va replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Good luck leapfrogging me. -
Nice job @yoda!
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
nj2va replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 23.1 DCA: 11.1 IAD: 20.1 RIC: 4.2 Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.9 -
BWI: 10/21 DCA: 11/1 IAD: 10/23 RIC: 11/3 Tie: 10.1”
