nj2va

Good disco by LWX: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coveted shortwave trough responsible for the rather dramatic shifts in the forecast for the second half of the weekend moved onshore of western North America overnight, and is expected to be amplify over the Tennessee River Valley Saturday night. This will result in cyclogenesis (development of low pressure) off the southeast coast. It appears the northwestward trend in the track of this low pressure closer to the coast is due at least in part to (1) a slightly stronger ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean deflecting the low pressure closer to the coast, and (2) slightly more separation and amplification between the incoming shortwave trough, and low pressure associated with today`s cold front departing over southeastern Canada; this results in a subtle yet all-important opportunity for phasing between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. What this means in terms of sensible weather locally is that the chances for precipitation have increased markedly for Saturday night into Sunday. The airmass will be marginally cold (see: high temperatures near 50 the preceding day on Saturday), but should be cold enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall as snow (though a start as light rain or a mix is possible). The late- night timing of precipitation and dynamic cooling aloft from lift between the phasing shortwave troughs on the northwest side of the surface low should keep temperatures cold enough for (wet) snow during the height of the event, and the dynamics may result in a few bands of moderately heavy snow at times, particularly SE of US-29. The potential for a warning-level snowfall event (5"+ in 12 hours east of the Appalachian Mountains) seems modest despite the dynamics given the marginal temperatures and the short duration of the event. Still, any further shifts may result in an uptick (or downtick) in forecasted snowfall amounts.

Nice moisture feed at H144 pointed directly at the area. Busy tracking ahead.

NSFW wording in this post. I do hope CAPE jackpots too.

Looks good to me. Would love to freshen up the snow pack.

Starts in less than 7 so I posted it in the other thread initially

Big ones show up early.

ICON has the overrunning event next Thursday that turns into a coastal. What a weenie hit.

Really nice run for the southern part of our area. Looks like a good hit for DC. I don’t mind the south shift to give us in DC some breathing room for eventual shifts north.

I thought at 42 the shortwave looked less intense than 18z...

Me too, I love reading that by @high risk and @MillvilleWx...it’s super interesting and stuff I’d never know if we didn’t participate here.

That’s a lot of SREF dissection in the storm thread.

My neighbor down the hill from us at Deep Creek texted earlier and said I have 2’ on the ground in my driveway. 32/17 there with returns overhead. Snowpack here at home is basically gone in south facing areas. Shaded still hanging on (barely).

I want to say Jan 2016 had some 48" lollis in runs leading up to the storm.

LWX is on board! Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

12z ICON finally came out on TT. Shows a nice hit for the area of about 2-4".

Famous last words but I've gotta think Euro will come NW based on the 500 through 60.

I'd take a repeat of that. Thanks for posting as I don't remember this one at all.

Pretty soon next Friday's threat will move into here.

Yep, just nice to see opportunities popping up on the operational models - shows the upcoming potential.

GFS honking the storm signal again next Thursday/Friday/Saturday.

my street still isn't plowed after the 26" storm we got on Monday.

It is funny how we seemingly trip over each other pointing out "BUT IT WON'T HAPPEN LIKE THAT.....NAM LOLLLZZZZZZ"

That was a straight up perfect evolution at 500.

Avg high hits 50 in like 3.5 weeks.

I'm down for a warm spring after we get our mid February HECS.