nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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GFS gets next weekend’s potential storm down to the 940s over Maine, which is pretty impressive IMO. At least something to track and could set up the mountains for their first warning event of the winter.
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NBC needs to can both of them, honestly. By far the worst of the “top line” announcers of the major networks.
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Lol. I just turned on the game. 56-7. Sorry, WTF fans.
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Down to 37 here. Under a WWA for up an inch of snow and up to 0.1” of ice. At least it’ll feel like winter for a few hours before the multiple rounds of rain the rest of the week.
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Longer range 12z HRRR had a couple hours of snow for the northern areas tomorrow morning before the column warms. We’re heading to Deep Creek later today from my parents in NJ - hoping to see some (brief) frozen there tomorrow AM too…I think your area/Manchester/etc has a better shot than Deep Creek in this setup IMO. ETA:
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I love that HP to the north on the OP…stout. MSLP map is getting a bit of that ‘classic’ look to it.
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GFS continues to honk a pretty big storm in the east between the 2nd and 4th. Gets it down to a 966 near Nova Scotia. ETA: Also, some big time cold in the middle of the country. Ninja’d by Cobalt
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Just over an inch of rain at Deep Creek today.
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At least it seems we’re stepping out of the current “no chance of any frozen” for most of the area to having a shot at some snow/sleet/etc. I’ll happily take that.
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/ No widespread death and destruction / EJ not impressed either
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I’m shocked. That’s a pretty massive storm as depicted on the 12z GFS - maybe it’ll shake things up.
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46 and moderate rain in Ocean County, NJ. Beautiful!
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I was about to say, while I don’t have individual members, the TT 6z GEFS maps don’t seem supportive of the OP. Most certainly a LP emerging from the SE but the mean HP is over the plains.
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Merry Christmas! Hope everyone has a blessed day.
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WWA posted for the overnight hours for Allegany/Washington/Frederick for freezing rain/sleet.
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Oh man, have a great time with the family out there! Pictures look awesome
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Nice! What are you drinking?
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I don’t have a paid model subscription (no point given the lack of chances right now) but the 12z GEFS on TT made me a bit interested in New Year’s weekend for the mountains. SER becomes muted just enough which allows 850s to be BN, 2m normal, and decent 24H precip for this far out.
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Nice weather today to get a few last minute gifts and stock up at Total Wine. Their new location at Potomac Yards in Alexandria is really nice.
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Wow, he went all in on the prediction.
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Seems like we want to keep the heights down so the system doesn’t wind up tracking over Buffalo. 500 heights at 6z shifted north vs 0z which translated to less frozen in the area. Even if its a long shot, at least something to keep an eye on vs pattern changes.
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Re: the vortex near Japan….6z GEFS starts to change that look ~New Years Day. Hopefully not a head fake and we start to see a breakdown to this relentless pacific shit show.
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Is this area circled in green where we need some help? As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER. It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?).
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I’m confused - where’s the ridge on this map?
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Selfishly, I’d love a NS/clipper pattern for a few weeks. Mountains would cash in MD/WV and it’d help turn around what’s been a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts. I think it was 2 or 3 winters ago where a little clipper dropped 12” in McHenry…ratios were like 30:1 or something like that (or honestly even more).
