batmanbrad

it's... ALIVE!  Everything seems to be congealing from MoCo on west towards the stuff back in Loudoun county.

the blob is not in any big hurry, if it stays together there will be some decent rainfall totals for those underneath it.  Cell movement started out S briefly, has gradually turned left and is now reported as a slight ENE movement, such as it is.  Edit:  plus there could be a bit of training effect if/when the stuff further west comes though.

and as Kmlwx predicted, MoCo cell now warned

TVS sig on it too for now on RadarScope

edit:  oops, that's TVS for the cell out near Charles Town

yes quite the red/green couplet of sorts spreading out rapidly, that cell sure developed in a hurry, wonder if some sort of boundry triggered it, but I can't see anything leading up to it that would be an obvious cause.

cell developing just SE of Pooleville, if it holds together it could impact the Germantown/Gaithersburg/Rockville area.  this is out ahead of the main area back towards Winchester so it's not "competing" against anything else for the moment.

still trying... decent looking cell just popped up quickly in the Rockville area, may or may not have been influenced by a boundary.

noticed that the SLGT risk area for today was nudged north and east into the immediate DC metro areas on the 9AM morning outlook.  Discussion still seemed kind of muted though.

an occasional small rumble of thunder here and there in Gaithersburg (near Laytonsville), and lots of heavy rain.  Guess I can skip the planned lawn watering today.

cell developing just to the NE of Laytonsville, moving ENE, just missed me of course.

satellite loop definitely showing the fairly rapid clearing taking place ahead of the lines of storms out to the west towards Harrisonburg.  Still holding out some hope for some action here in Gaithersburg if enough insolation can occur to destabilize us more.

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm pleasantly surprised that we've managed to clear out a bit, but there's more debris cirrus over the mountains.

Per vis loop, the clouds over the mountains to our west appear to be thinning out some, and further west, most of West Virginia looks quite cleared out.

Still coming down decently here in the Gaithersburg/Montgomery Village/Laytonsville area... thought it would stop earlier but those waves keep coming up from the south, seeming like some backbuilding of sorts going on.  Will eventually move out but for now persistence rules.

wow, rather substantial size for this watch box:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0159.html

My phone just gave me a notification of a severe thunderstorm watch being issues for much of the area...  this following the meso discussion issued about 1/2 hour ago.

4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Is this the thread for tracking the first 90F day?

or maybe for guessing how much earlier than normal the cherry trees will be in full bloom?

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

were not getting 1-2 

oh yes we are.  It's just that we're getting 1-2... snowflakes

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

When will TWC send a met to broadcast live?

I'm sure Cantore is already trying to figure out where the best thundersnow chances are... or maybe he'll just go out to Nags Head think there'll be a late 'cane around there next week and get caught in a snowstorm instead that will miss our area and dump down that way.

1 hour ago, frd said:

I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

Is it coincidence (or not) that you mention "hopefully this time we score" and "the Pamela Anderson bust" in the same message?

Speaking of DT, his latest Twitter posts feature a lot of WOOFing over the 12/23 threat...

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NAM.  Temps go above freezing NW between 10 am and 1pm.

So from this map, instead of the DC Snow Hole, we have the FairfaxCo/MoCo/HoCo/Baltimore ZR Hole!

yes, if I'm in the Tampa/Clearwater/St Pete area I'm not liking this run, if it jogs slightly more east that area will be in the worst area (RFQ) of the cane.

the short trip over the western part of Cuba certainly had little negative affect on the system, not a good sign for wherever in the Gulf it heads for.

looking at Pivotal, on the Euro hi-res, system at 00Z on 9/27 is already 12mb stronger compared with the same timeframe on the 0Z run (990mb vs. 1002mb)

edit:  also moving faster than the 00Z run, approaching the western tip of Cuba already as of 9/27 06Z on the latest euro hires run.

so what are the odds of a pity MD (a MD for Md., ha!)  in the next hour or so?

looks like a little bit of training cell stuff setting up WSW to ENE heading in the general direction of MoCo, not sure if it will maintain itself, but if it fills in/enhances, the flood threat could develop.