SnowNiner

Perhaps if there's something you don't understand about my post, feel free to ask a question or simply don't reply at all. "Read more and post less" directives are just arrogant and rude. Thanks.

FYP. None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia. What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December. And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be. Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations. Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable.

That sounds reasonable from what I can see. Unless this thing slows down to come Friday night, we're looking at mood flakes in clt. I'm fine with that this early. And if it lasted all day, even if it doesn't stick, that would be pretty sweet.

Yep.

+++++++QBO It's always something though. Hopefully next year we just have standard, ordinary, run of the mill indexes and I bet we score a nice storm at some point. Last two years CRAZY nino, this year CRAZY +QBO. Just need normal....unless it's CRAZY blocking, I'll take that.

Don't say that. The weeklies and the CFS are my only hope at this point. That's so sad... Next year is going to rock though with weak Nino, solar minimum, and something QBO. Feeling good about next year. Kinda.

Yeah I'd take one week. Most we can get it looks like is 3 days. And in between are these HUGE warm ups that take FOREVER! I feel like this warm run has lasted forevvvvvvveeeeerrr. We're not even in range of fantasy storms at this point, that's how long it's taking to get out of the crap pattern.

Remember when we hoped the October -AO state would correlate to the winter AO state? lol.

Yeah learning moment for me. Tracked this thing for 10 days, it got better and better. Never going to trust a storm unless I study the HRRR and see where the snow line is coming and I have to see I'm 20 miles north of it. Also, surface temps have to be at freezing or below for the majority of the event. Terrible bust for many. And it was a stinking Miller A !!!

Took the middle ground. Ok, so 4 inch on the EURO + 10 inches for CLT = 14 inches / 2 = 7 inches. Is that how it works? I'll take it!

I agree, it was late to the ballgame on every aspect of this storm. I expect it to ramp up totals to the west (I hope!) Raleigh guys, I'm telling you you're good anyway you pack it. Should be feeling good right now.

Yeah, I don't want to get greedy from the 7 modeled, but if we can get this thing a little closer, I wouldn't be upset. That thin line through CLT could move awefully quick in 2 days time.

You'd think at 2.5 days there'd be some GFS/EURO/Ukie/CMC consensus, but no. Hopefully Euro goes to the Ukie. Oh, and lower those stinkin snow shields! It's killing me you're not in to this threat. Raleigh seems to be sitting pretty I'm surprised you're not more excited...

Models say thank you to me for all my time and attention by giving me a token inch and saying, you'll take it and like it!

It ain't real till the Euro says so! Hoping gfs scores the coup....

I tend to agree. It's amazing the blocking is so weak but the pv/50/50 stays so far south on most models, and so many high pressures are popping up right in the right place. I'm expecting to rug to be pulled out at any moment.

Roses are red violets are blue, the GFS says snow. Now I want the Euro to say it too!

Hadn't had a good Euro run in a long time....I think that tells the story...

Yes, help me save them! Pull them out while there's still time!! Oh the humanity....don't go to the light, dgx. Lol.

So sad, I don't know who's manipulating these models trying to get us to think it's going to snow in CLT, but it's just mean. I'm not falling for it though. Whatever model shows the least snow, that's the one I believe. I think I'm on the Euro right now...nice and cold...and only enough flakes to break the shutout. Just mean.

Don't get get suckered back in, don't you do it...that's how they get you!

Yes, Boone, and Blowing Rock! lol. Well I hope he means east of apps and I hope he's right.

Yes, upper SE = Northern Virginia.

The -AO/-NAO looks like it's got staying power, but the lack of a +PNA is killer as the trough stays in the west the whole run and the SE ridge still hangs around. Looks like we're still cool at 240 but not cold. It's amazing we complain for a -NAO then we get it....then we find another way to lose. It's -NAO, but not west based, so I guess that doesn't count....

Yeah, I'm done with next week. That fish is fried. I think we had two lucky runs 2 days ago that got us baited and they've been pretty crappy ever since. Don't trust the weeklies though, things have been flopping back and forth it seems lately. Who knows what the next 2 weeks will be like....