uncle W

NYC snowfall in la nina years...(ONI) ...13 years with at least 20" of snowfall...11 years with less than 20" of snowfall... 60"+ winters...two...2010-11...1995-96... 40-49.9"..........two...2005-06...2017-18... 30-39.9"........three...2016-17...2000-01...1955-56... 20-29.9"...........six....2008-09...1984-85...1983-84...1973-74...1971-72...1964-65... 15-19.9"........three...1999-00...1975-76...1970-71... 10-14.9"...........six.....2007-08...1998-99...1974-75...1954-55...1950-51...1949-50 00'09.9"...........two....2011-12...1988-89...

being dry now does not matter...being dry in winter can be a problem sometimes...

QBO is similar to 2010 and 1966 but will it continue...Both winters featured a qbo of at least +10 throughout the winter...

some QBO numbers... Sept year...............after..... 2020.....+795.....rising??? 2019.....+825.....falling slowly...weak el nino... 2010.....+658.....rising then steady thru the winter at +10... 2008...+1160.....steady around +10 throughout... 1999....+1119.....steady then falling slowing thru the winter to around +5... 1995.....+698.....falling to -10 by March... 1985....+1172.....steady with a minor dip to+9 at winters start... 1975....+1095.....steady throughout... 1971......+895.....steady throughout... 1966.....+923.....rising then steady at around + 12 to +10... 1959....+1009.....steady then falling during the winter to near zero in March... 1955......+816.....steady then falling to negatives by January...

yesterday jb back tracked on his call for a mild snowless winter...he quoted a similarity with the 2010 arctic oscillation...

Getting into the low 50's this time of year in NYC is not a significant feat...even upper 40's...low 40's upper 30's would be...

I remember the morning of the March 3rd 1960 storm and the forecast was for snow turning to rain with moderating temperatures...I guess the weather bureau.didn't see the coastal developing and taking over the circulation...

if a la nina winter starts cold Feb can be much milder...if a la nina winter starts mild Feb can be colder...some years had cold Decembers but mild Januarys like 2006 and 1989... some others were warm throughout or cold throughout...the maps below have 1954 by mistake...take that year out and the maps look the same...

the two years before 1970-71 were cold el nino winters...70-71 continued the cold theme...Feb 1969 was a bench mark for snow in Boston that was surpassed by Feb 2015...the last two winters have been mild and lets hope 2020-21 does not continue the mild theme...

1970-71 and 2007-08 were terrible here in NYC but they were great well north of here...

we need a good block during a la nina December at least in my area... most Decembers with an AO -4sd or lower usually had heavy snow that month in the NYC area... la nina... 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was getting 3" of snow and the coldest temp of the winter...9 degrees...not great but it was the best part of that winter... el nino... 12/20/1963...ao was below -4sd on the 20th...NYC got 7" of snow on the 23rd... 12/27/1968...below -4sd...light snow soon followed...it took till Feb to get a heavy snowstorm... 12/29/1976...below -5sd...light snow that day but the winter had record cold...no heavy snow that year... 12/21/2009...ao was almost -6sd...NYC got 11" of snow on the 19th-20th... neutral... 12/26/1961...almost -4sd...6" of snow on 12/23-24... 12/31/1962...below -4sd...no heavy snow that winter...Just record cold...13 degree max in NYC 12/31/62... 12/27/1978...below -4sd...it took till Febfuary to get heavy snow...

95-96....great winter... 05-06....good winter... 07-08...horrible winter... I'll take a blend of all three....

Looking at oni only 1995 and 2005 and 2007 are the best fits imo...

I was one of the few who did not believe the 3 feet that was forecast...The ao was very positive at the time and I was worried about it...we did get 9" which normaly would be a nice storm if 10" was predicted...the next year the big one hit and I was bullish about that one because the ao/nao went very negative a few days before the storm...

snow in October usually means winter is Octover...

https://onionnative.kinja.com/is-putting-a-blowtorch-up-your-ass-the-new-way-to-vape-1831734555

here in NY the two best winters of my life have been la nina's...1995-96 and 2010-11...the two worst winters were el nino's...1972-73 and 1997-98...a typical horrid winter like last winter was an el nino winter...la nina has seen its share of clunkers but were colder on average and clunkers were around 12" for a season while el nino clunkers averaged under 10"

on this date in 1999 hurricane Floyd hit the area...in 1903 the south jersey hurricane hit... 1903... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/53407707 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1903-09-17/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1903-09-17/ed-1/seq-2/

the president of the polarbear club lived across the street from me and my memory of that morning was seeing him shovel snow in a tee shirt...

I went to McKinley junior high in 61-62 to 63-64...I played many a softball game in the triangle yard in Mckinley park and the school yard...

yeah...that's me throwing snowballs and shoveling...I was 12...I had hair back then...

1961 was forecast pretty good by the NWS...they said it will turn to rain but enough snow will be on the ground for Christmas...the snow started the evening of the 23rd and accumulated 3" before changing to drizzle early Christmas eve morning...very light precipitation changed back to snow and it became moderate in the afternoon and ended just before midnight...another 3-4" accumulated...6" was on the ground Christmas morning... from my uncles home videos...

the city has not had snow on the ground Christmas morning since 2009...1966 is still the greatest Christmas eve storm that ended early Christmas morning...1961 had snow Christmas eve that ended around 11pm...1963 had a 6" storm on the 23rd that ended during the early morning hours on Christmas eve...for good measure it snowed for a few hours Christmas eve evening that whitened the 5" that was left on the ground...those three years growing up in 61, 63 and 66 have not been duplicated since...1912 had the biggest Christmas eve snowstorm but very little the rest of the winter... year...snow on ground...dates of storms... 1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night... 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night...