ChescoWx
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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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18z NAM run
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I like this topo map.....if you are in brown some snow will come down.....if you in green none will be seen!
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1st 18z run of the day - elevation remains the key
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Chilly and breezy today with some occasional rain showers especially across Northern Chester and Berks Counties....some snow may begin to mix in with the rain across the highest elevations later this evening. Some additional snow and rain showers will continue for much of the day tomorrow. Any minor slushy accumulations will be on non-paved surfaces as temperatures with the exception of the highest ridges will remain a little above freezing for the duration. We start to dry out and turn a bit milder with temperatures back to near or slightly above normal before a sharp turn to colder by Wednesday. Turkey Day itself looks to be colder than normal with high temperatures in the low 40's.
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Chilly and breezy today with some occasional rain showers especially across Northern Chester and Berks Counties....some snow may begin to mix in with the rain across the highest elevations later this evening. Some additional snow and rain showers will continue for much of the day tomorrow. Any minor slushy accumulations will be on non-paved surfaces as temperatures with the exception of the highest ridges will remain a little above freezing for the duration. We start to dry out and turn a bit milder with temperatures back to near or slightly above normal before a sharp turn to colder by Wednesday. Turkey Day itself looks to be colder than normal with high temperatures in the low 40's.
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1.05" so far here in East Nantmeal
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Heavy rain here in East Nantmeal with up to 0.30" here in the last 20 minutes
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Steve, agree with everything you said....only think I question is the "atlantic is toasty" IMHO one of the least important issues for snow in the mid-atlantic. Give me the right track in winter and unless you are within 30 miles of the ocean I would take my chances!
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That GFS Tidbits looks a bit inflated (of course none of this is real but) - same run on WB
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Latest HRRR has the line reaching the Chester County border at about 11pm this evening
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Latest NAM increases model snow amounts for higher spots of NW Chesco and SE Berks to over 6" by Friday late night....but only an inch or so at lower spots like in The Lehigh Valley
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First call… Philly: T Reading: C-1” Allentown: C-1” +550 feet in Berks/Chester/Bucks/Montco Counties 1" to 2" Hazleton: 4-6” Mt. Pocono: 6-10”
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Latest HiRes Canadian
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Hi Res Canadian
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12z Canadian
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The GFS coming more in line with NAM/EURO on this run
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The German Model
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It will be all about elevation with this one. You can see the latest NAM is picking out the higher elevation spots like here in NW Chesco and Berks for the relatively higher totals (though still not significant.
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Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.08" of rain last night. Cloudy today before the rain moves in later tonight most likely around the 9pm hour from west to east across Chester County. Between 0.50" to 0.75" of much needed rain are possible across the county by Thursday morning. By later Thursday afternoon we will see some additional precipitation start to enter the area and this may well be a mix of rain and snow with higher spots in the county the most likely to see some wet snow. This mix of rain and snow may continue into the day on Friday before ending late Friday. Clearing and seasonably chilly this weekend.
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Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.08" of rain last night. Cloudy today before the rain moves in later tonight most likely around the 9pm hour from west to east across Chester County. Between 0.50" to 0.75" of much needed rain are possible across the county by Thursday morning. By later Thursday afternoon we will see some additional precipitation start to enter the area and this may well be a mix of rain and snow with higher spots in the county the most likely to see some wet snow. This mix of rain and snow may continue into the day on Friday before ending late Friday. Clearing and seasonably chilly this weekend.
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Agreed! Even the Kuchey looks overblown for low spots - this is the type of event where every 50 feet could make differences in snow totals...
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Euro not too bad as it seems to also pick out elevation a bit better like the NAM
