ChescoWx

Light snow should arrive from west to east across Chester and Berks counties during the 2pm hour this afternoon. The timing is not great as the steadiest snow will fall during rush hour. There should be at most an inch or so over the area. We turn colder this weekend with temperatures remaining below freezing for at least the next week. The next winter event looks like it will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Most of the ensemble models keep the more significant snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. That said most areas will see at least a couple inches with more as you go south in Chester County toward Maryland.

Light snow should arrive from west to east across Chester and Berks counties during the 2pm hour this afternoon. The timing is not great as the steadiest snow will fall during rush hour. There should be at most an inch or so over the area. We turn colder this weekend with temperatures remaining below freezing for at least the next week. The next winter event looks like it will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Most of the ensemble models keep the more significant snow south of the Mason Dixon Line. That said most areas will see at least a couple inches with more as you go south in Chester County toward Maryland.

Agreed Steve I suspect from the PA Turnpike south to MD border is a solid 2" to 4" with an inch or 2 up to the ABE area. But a sharp cutoff to the northeast of there...

The 12km NAM at the end of it's range looks to be a bit further north with it's model snow....

Welp at least the ICON is a bit further north....if we are looking for the snowier solutions.....the trend on the ensembles is telling IMHO

Canadian with a move south with heaviest totals from 12z and sharper cutoff to the NE than earlier run

Tomorrow night's event - this is only out to 10pm tomorrow

There is no right or wrong but in most situations I have found the K method is usually at least an improvement over 10:1

I do think with colder storms the Kutchera does a better job with the ratios but it is not available on the ensemble runs....the ensemble did move a bit north again from the 12z run

Double digits for NW Chesco......if you choose to believe in model snow!!

It was February 13th 10.5" at East Nantmeal / 9.3" West Caln and up in Berks County at Huff's Church 9.4"

The HRRR radar depicts the snow starting by 2pm across Chesco with the heaviest (see below) at about 5pm.....not a great scenario for rush hour travel if this comes to pass!

The NWS just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow from 3pm till 10pm see below ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, the eastern shores of Maryland, southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 3 PM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Since 2020 below are the biggest snow events Jan 31 - Feb 2, 2021 - 16.6" East Nantmeal / 13.5" East Vincent / 12.2" East Coventry Feb 13, 2024 - East Nantmeal 10.5" / West Caln 9.3" / Warwick Park 8.0" Feb 7, 2021 - 8.8" East Nantmeal / 8.3" Elverson / 6.0" Exton Dec 17, 2020 - 9.6" Elverson / 9.3" East Nantmeal / 8.2" East Vincent

Feb 13th last year 10.5" of snow - winter storm warning with that one for Chesco

12z runs

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

Today, while still below normal temperatures will be our warmest day for quite a while. Tomorrow we will be a bit chillier than today, and we will likely see our last above freezing temperatures for about 10 days. Some light snow is possible by tomorrow evening with a coating to an inch in spots. Cold and dry for the weekend before our snow chances increase on Sunday evening into Monday.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.

The climate summary for Chester County PA finds that 2024 was our warmest year since way back in 1913! Overall, this was the third warmest year since 1893 with an average annual temperature of 55.15 degrees. The warmest years here in Chester County were way back in 1931 (warmest) with an average temperature of 55.73 degrees followed closely by that equally warm year even further back in time of 1913 at 55.18 degrees. Precipitation wise this was the 48th driest year with an average across all reporting stations of 39.57" of rain and melted snow equivalent but only 2.50" below our normal levels. Snowfall wise our 25.7" of snow were almost 10 inches below our normal snow of 35" here in Chester County. Below is the climate data for the 18 current NWS/MADIS and trained observer sites here in Chester County PA.

The ensemble run of the European has started a slight "trend" back north....below is the 6z run

Happy New Year to all! A wind advisory remains in effect till 10pm tonight. Temperatures today will be near normal (low to mid 40's) before falling later in the day. We finished 2024 as the 3rd warmest year in my 21 years of observations here in East Nantmeal. I will update with the annual climate summary for the rest of Chester County later. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 30's. We could see a period of light snow on Friday PM. Temps remain below freezing this weekend with snow chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday.

Happy New Year to all! A wind advisory remains in effect till 10pm tonight. Temperatures today will be near normal (low to mid 40's) before falling later in the day. We finished 2024 as the 3rd warmest year in my 21 years of observations here in East Nantmeal. I will update with the annual climate summary for the rest of Chester County later. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday will be in the low to mid 30's. We could see a period of light snow on Friday PM. Temps remain below freezing this weekend with snow chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday.

With another 0.46" of rain this evening we are now over 0.84" of normal precipitation for December. I remember when some folks at the start of November were concerned about drought conditions etc.... welp we will finish 2024 at almost 96% of normal precipitation across most of the area.