ChescoWx

The 6z ops looked less than great....but as Positive Paul....the GFS Ensemble did almost double from it's 0z run for this week. The trend begins???????....

The fact the 18z Euro ensemble is the same as 12z says the operational was a lower outlier....plenty of time to come back

Feb8radarNAm.mp4

I always like a south Goofus a few days prior to an event - let the north trend begin at 0z!!! NWS discussion says their confidence is increasing for a mid week plowable event

Inches of sleet so if you see 1.0 inches that is about 0.30" of liquid = sleet - not really a perfect calculation but gives a general idea

From the Mt Holly discussion... There is a chance of warning level ice across parts of southeastern PA, with the highest odds across Chester and Montgomery Counties, but not confident in issuing any ice storm warnings yet, so capped ice below 1/4 inch for the time being.

agreed!

truth!

NWS has growing confidence in plowable snow this week "While it’s still four to five days away, confidence is increasing the region will see a plowable snow event sometime during the mid- week period next week. It’s going to be active regardless with the first system arriving on Tuesday and sticking around through early Wednesday. The second system will arrive on Thursday and persist into Friday.”

18z NAM ups sleet totals

Let's hope Trumpy throws out the bad models along with all the other grifters he is showing to the door!!

I just never understand the folks that are gleeful after 1 run and in the toilet after a bad one. The truth is never in the extremes....watch the ensembles and you will never be misled IMHO

plenty of time for relatively small changes in the above...

Not sure what I am missing with all the doom and gloom. The NBM is far from shabby snow wise next week from Tuesday 7am thru Friday 7am

a run 12 days out does not a storm make or break.....

Maybe our cyclical climate change is taking us back to the period from 1967 thru 1977.....now those were lean snow years but still cold like this winter! Warm - cold - wet - dry - snowy - rinse and repeat in our constantly changing climate!

If we get that much we will be above normal snowfall for the year....people were spoiled by a couple of our snowiest decades during the last 2 complete decades.

Another solid 12z run....not sure it will happen but suspect most on here would sign up for this....

All looked great IMHO! for a solid snowfall for most of the region

Agreed! the models are very consistent in bringing a moderate event between now and Thursday.

Below are the 1st 3 of the 12z runs - simply looking at model snow amounts by Thursday morning. They are all in basic agreement on moderate snow totals across the area this week.

NAM with a look not too different from our last event for tomorrow.

One of the wintrier weeks of weather in several years is on tap for the area with 4 distinct storms with varying types of wintry precipitation. The first one arrive tomorrow afternoon as brief snow, sleet to freezing rain (ZR). This will be a colder event than yesterday with temperatures staying in the 20's for the entire event – maybe an inch or so of snow/sleet before the ZR. The 2nd event arrives on Tuesday and should be mainly snow....this has the potential to be a "plowable" event. More snow arrives Thursday morning, but it should change to sleet and freezing rain and possibly all rain before ending. The 4th event next weekend looks like it will be primarily rain.

One of the wintrier weeks of weather in several years is on tap for the area with 4 distinct storms with varying types of wintry precipitation. The first one arrive tomorrow afternoon as brief snow, sleet to freezing rain (ZR). This will be a colder event than yesterday with temperatures staying in the 20's for the entire event – maybe an inch or so of snow/sleet before the ZR. The 2nd event arrives on Tuesday and should be mainly snow....this has the potential to be a "plowable" event. More snow arrives Thursday morning, but it should change to sleet and freezing rain and possibly all rain before ending. The 4th event next weekend looks like it will be primarily rain.