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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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Below is the summer (June-July-August) temperature summary for 2026 and summer temperature history from 1871-1926. This was 33rd warmest summer but overall since 1895 there has been no statistically significant warming or cooling across both the raw and composite trend and only the NCEI adjusted averages indicate any significant summer warming.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Below is the summer (June-July-August) temperature summary for 2026 and summer temperature history from 1871-1926. This was 33rd warmest summer but overall since 1895 there has been no statistically significant warming or cooling across both the raw and composite trend and only the NCEI adjusted averages indicate any significant summer warming. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is the summer (June-July-August) temperature summary for 2026 and summer temperature history from 1871-1926. This was 33rd warmest summer but overall since 1895 there has been no statistically significant warming or cooling across both the raw and composite trend and only the NCEI adjusted averages indicate any significant summer warming. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Below is the Chester County area Climate Summary for August 2026. August finished just slightly above normal +0.6 degrees as the 52nd warmest and the 16th wettest since 1871. Through the 1st 8 months of 2026 we are running 0.7 degrees below normal temperature wise which is the 57th warmest over 151 years but only the 103rd warmest on a composite anomaly basis. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is the Chester County area Climate Summary for August 2026. August finished just slightly above normal +0.6 degrees as the 52nd warmest and the 16th wettest since 1871. Through the 1st 8 months of 2026 we are running 0.7 degrees below normal temperature wise which is the 57th warmest over 151 years but only the 103rd warmest on a composite anomaly basis. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
After a very wet August across the area we start September with more shower chances over the first few days of the month. Today looks to be the warmest day and likely driest with highs ranging from the mid 80's here in East Nantmeal with some 90's possible in valley locations. Tomorrow will be a good 10 degrees cooler but also a better shot of some showers. With a cold front passing through we begin to trend cooler as we head into the Labor Day Weekend. High temperatures through the weekend looks to remain in the mid to upper 70's with overnight lows in the 50's. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Through it's first 9 days the ChescoWx forecast has been closer than the NWS point and click for EN. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Warm, humid with some showers possible for much of the week before we turn much cooler and clearer by the end of the work week and the start of Labor Day Weekend. The warmest day of the week looks to be tomorrow with highs well into the 80's. The best chance of rain will be tomorrow night into Wednesday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Warm, humid with some showers possible for much of the week before we turn much cooler and clearer by the end of the work week and the start of Labor Day Weekend. The warmest day of the week looks to be tomorrow with highs well into the 80's. The best chance of rain will be tomorrow night into Wednesday. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
From April through Yesterday most locations are not too far from normal rainfall for the spring and summer to date. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
From April through Yesterday most locations are not too far from normal rainfall for the spring and summer to date. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We turn warmer and more humid today through much of the upcoming week with shower and thunderstorm chances each day. The best chances of any rain would be later this evening and again on Wednesday into Thursday. Our warmest day looks to be Tuesday with some lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We turn much cooler and drier for Labor Day Weekend. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
We turn warmer and more humid today through much of the upcoming week with shower and thunderstorm chances each day. The best chances of any rain would be later this evening and again on Wednesday into Thursday. Our warmest day looks to be Tuesday with some lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We turn much cooler and drier for Labor Day Weekend. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
A nice weekend ahead with increasing sun today and continued below normal temperatures through the weekend. We warm to above normal highs in the mid to upper 80's by Monday lasting through Wednesday we then fall back to a bit closer to normal by the end of next week. Next rain chances look to be toward Tuesday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
A nice weekend ahead with increasing sun today and continued below normal temperatures through the weekend. We warm to above normal highs in the mid to upper 80's by Monday lasting through Wednesday we then fall back to a bit closer to normal by the end of next week. Next rain chances look to be toward Tuesday. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We had a brief shower this morning, but showers will become more widespread later this afternoon and into the night with the ChescoWx model predicting 0.44" of rain by midnight tonight. We start to clear up tomorrow and start a steady warming trend with our peak warm days looking to be next Monday and Tuesday. However, any 90+ days look unlikely especially for the ridge locations. I suspect we have already seen our last "heat wave" across the county. -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
We had a brief shower this morning, but showers will become more widespread later this afternoon and into the night with the ChescoWx model predicting 0.44" of rain by midnight tonight. We start to clear up tomorrow and start a steady warming trend with our peak warm days looking to be next Monday and Tuesday. However, any 90+ days look unlikely especially for the ridge locations. I suspect we have already seen our last "heat wave" across the county. -
Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire decade of the 2020's!
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire 2020's! -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Fox 29 in Philly posted the below graphic for Philadelphia at the PHL Airport regarding "heat wave" days. I have also posted the same analysis for Chester County since 2020. Of note 10 of the Chester County stations have had the same or less than the 7 heat waves at PHL this year over the entire 2020's! -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
ChescoWx replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
For those interested in the very early accuracy of the ChescoWx model forecasts vs. the NWS - so far with a couple complete days all model runs ran cooler than the NWS Forecast and the actual verified temperatures were cooler than the NWS Forecast with ChescoWx at least over a couple full days being closer to the actuals. But it is only a couple of days so we will keep tracking. The first column is the forecast run time with the green shaded being ChescoWx and the unshaded column the NWS forecast.
