ChescoWx

One last mild above normal temperature day today before some showers arrive after midnight tonight and turn us back to below normal temperatures for the rest of the upcoming week. Rain tonight looks like between 0.25" to 050" across the area. The only other chance of rain this week looks to be Tuesday night. Highs looks to be in the 50's and lows in the 30's for much of the late week period.

One last mild above normal temperature day today before some showers arrive after midnight tonight and turn us back to below normal temperatures for the rest of the upcoming week. Rain tonight looks like between 0.25" to 050" across the area. The only other chance of rain this week looks to be Tuesday night. Highs looks to be in the 50's and lows in the 30's for much of the late week period.

Got it! You can't find any proof in the Chester County data to undermine the quality of the data....unless we go hundreds of miles away - check!!

Of note today back in 1972 we recorded our earliest measurable snowfall in the county area. Between 1" to 3" of snow fell across the higher ridges of NW Chester County. Interestingly that winter of 1972-1973 ended up being the least snowy winter in County history. In fact, that is the only winter season that no measurable snow was recorded at Coatesville. No snow chances this season till next month. Today we warm nicely well into the 60's with low to mid 70's by tomorrow as we enjoy a little Indian Summer for those spots that have already seen a freeze this season. Rain chances to ramp up by Sunday night into Monday morning. We then turn chillier again for the upcoming work week.

Of note today back in 1972 we recorded our earliest measurable snowfall in the county area. Between 1" to 3" of snow fell across the higher ridges of NW Chester County. Interestingly that winter of 1972-1973 ended up being the least snowy winter in County history. In fact, that is the only winter season that no measurable snow was recorded at Coatesville. No snow chances this season till next month. Today we warm nicely well into the 60's with low to mid 70's by tomorrow as we enjoy a little Indian Summer for those spots that have already seen a freeze this season. Rain chances to ramp up by Sunday night into Monday morning. We then turn chillier again for the upcoming work week.

You keep making the rookie mistake of trying to bring unrelated stations not anywhere close to the county in question. Some of those you reference are 25 to 40 miles away....that does not improve a poorly constructed argument or address the facts proven above.

Don the problem is your reliance or let's call it your faith (which is not science) that "IF what is modeled, proves accurate ...but conversely and it is certainly possible IF what is modeled proves inaccurate (which is of course not beyond the realm of possibility) the consequences you fear of what from today's vantage point in your world view seems foreseen and avoidable - in fact never ever comes to pass...would obviously mean there were in fact no consequences that we needed to avoid in the first place. Do you see why you are being called out by myself and others for your so called "thesis of doom" post?

Bravo! an excellent post! Too often folks bring in politics where it has nothing to do with the political whims of a democratic society like here in the US. Thank you!!

Is this thread not for climate change on a world wide, United States, State Level or County basis? I do present climate change thoughts on a county basis. For example I posted real climate stats showing climate change across Chester County regarding the number of 90+ days. That is a climate post correct?

Now that we are done with any 90+ degree days. Below is the by-decade trend of the average number of 90+ days across Chester County PA from the 1890's through the 2020's. There is a clear decline at all elevations in the number of such hot days. In fact, the 2020's are trending to be the 2nd lowest number of average 90-degree days behind only the 1970's.

Now that we are done with any 90+ degree days. Below is the by-decade trend of the average number of 90+ days across Chester County PA from the 1890's through the 2020's. There is a clear decline at all elevations in the number of such hot days. In fact, the 2020's are trending to be the 2nd lowest number of average 90-degree days behind only the 1970's.

Now that we are done with any 90+ degree days. Below is the by-decade trend of the average number of 90+ days across Chester County PA from the 1890's through the 2020's. There is a clear decline at all elevations in the number of such hot days. In fact, the 2020's are trending to be the 2nd lowest number of average 90-degree days behind only the 1970's.

The mistake you made in the chart is the actual 1st full year at the new location in Coatesville was 1949. A full one-third of 1948 was actually at the old location. When we look at the actual data for that first full year following the move which was 1949 - you can clearly see that temperatures far from cooling as you keep saying in reality actually warmed by 2.2 degrees - no cooling at all. You would think moving from what you called a "UHI" location would have resulted in cooling - it of course did not! Also of importance all 3 stations warmed that year! And look at those altered NOAA temperatures for the county....what station in 1945, 1946, 1947 was as cold as that ghost station they used? Answer of course absolutey none - it's a ghost for Halloween!!

Some of our colder valley locations saw temperatures again this morning below freezing. Here in East Nantmeal on the ridges of the Welsh Mountain anticline at 685 feet ASL we only got down to 39.1 degrees this morning. Another below normal day today with ridge locations struggling to get out of the 50's for high temperatures. We do warm over the weekend with temperatures reaching as high as the low 70's on Sunday before we begin another chill down next week with below normal temperatures by mid-week. We have some good shower chances by later Sunday into the evening.

Some of our colder valley locations saw temperatures again this morning below freezing. Here in East Nantmeal on the ridges of the Welsh Mountain anticline at 685 feet ASL we only got down to 39.1 degrees this morning. Another below normal day today with ridge locations struggling to get out of the 50's for high temperatures. We do warm over the weekend with temperatures reaching as high as the low 70's on Sunday before we begin another chill down next week with below normal temperatures by mid-week. We have some good shower chances by later Sunday into the evening.

Words of wisdom WolfStock1 - thank you!!

I suggest you look more closely at what you stated above.....the facts I clearly showed say the cooling your spoke of at Coatesville did not occur!

Always refreshing to hear from this old reliable climate change committee! As if often the case the reliability of this and other CC groups is easily questioned due to ongoing concerns like clear politicization, flawed scientific methodologies,selective use of data, poor lack of realistic solutions and a general lack of accountability etc. For example from their 2022 report they actually suggested a significant expansion of energy crops and wood pellet use would be necessary for the UK to reach net zero. As is usually the case with this group this thinking was clearly unrealistic and poorly thought through! This move would in reality require up to 6% of the UK farmland which of course would jeopardize their food production. On behalf of our friends in the UK - thanks but no thanks!!!

@chubbs Actually Charlie there is total agreement across the 3 stations for those 1948-1949 station moves. Like you said this is easy with the actual data to see the real impact of any station moves. Unlike what you said above we did not see cooling after the station move! The first full year (1949) after the Coatesville move away from what you think was a UHI location - actually saw Coatesville warm by 2.2 degrees and not cool when moving away from the "heat island". As you can see below red is warmer changes and blue is cooler changes in annual temperatures. Perfect agreement as all stations warmed in 1949 following the Coatesville station move and cooled in a similar rate in 1950.

Many of our valley spots across the area saw lows this morning in the 30's with the lowest being our typical coldest spot up in Warwick Township at 33.2 degrees. While some higher spots like West Grove only made it as low as 42.8 degrees. There are a couple of below normal temperature days on the way both today and tomorrow before we moderate to near normal by Saturday and briefly above normal on Sunday before we chill down again to start the new work week. Next rain chances arrive on Sunday night with the next cold front.

Many of our valley spots across the area saw lows this morning in the 30's with the lowest being our typical coldest spot up in Warwick Township at 33.2 degrees. While some higher spots like West Grove only made it as low as 42.8 degrees. There are a couple of below normal temperature days on the way both today and tomorrow before we moderate to near normal by Saturday and briefly above normal on Sunday before we chill down again to start the new work week. Next rain chances arrive on Sunday night with the next cold front.

Scary for sure....but like all these longer term forecasts to date...highly unlikely to come close to reality!!

Ah so because one does not believe it is a significant threat (which most do not) if you fail on the 2nd part of that little test you are a Climate Denier. If that is true than are you as the dictionary says meeting the definition of a "climate alarmist" which is " a person who exaggerates the dangers of climate change and its potential impacts, often by using sensationalized language or promoting policies based on these exaggerated fears. ???

Again Don there is of course no such thing as a climate change denial movement - climate of course always changes correct?? That term is an example of what fake news is! Now the magnitude of any impact that man may have had on the many varied climate cycles the earth has gone through is certainly on the table... and some day it's true scientific impact may be quantified. But please keep in mind that I am not the one that chooses to use such dark language....by using the words you choose above you are indeed fear mongering. I know you really believe what you post but I really believe it does more harm than good to paint such a dark future without adequate science and proven models to support such miserable predictions.

Hi Hazwoper....you may not be clear on what data I use It is only for Chester County PA. It is a combo of NWS COOP Trained Spotter /AWOS /DEOS , USCR and GOES data sourced data points. If in doubt take a look at my website which lists and links to all of the data points at www.chescowx.com I draw no conclusions but do assume there exists no known climate fence around the perimeters of beautiful Chester County PA LOL!!