ChescoWx

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.

No evasiveness just want to see the deeper details and actual figures calculated that support these decades later adjustments to the raw data. I am a numbers guy by training so love digging into the supporting calculations that will support the adjustments.

I have emailed them not to dispute at all - just to ask for the detailed data. They were only able to share to me about 1/3 of the support for the data. If you can help me fill in the other 66% please reach out to your sources. You may have just missed it but I am launching a new detailed study of all 48 contiguous US States and will welcome the data to close the gaps on these estimated data adjustments made to the raw data to bring them to 100% support! thanks Cobalt!!

That is estimated NCEI adjusted data....even that data looks incredibly not alarming!! Even you can see that warming is minor at best and nothing at all to be concerned with correct?? Do you honestly look at that and tell me we have any issue there in that great Yellow Medicine county worth worrying about??

Thanks to all of you for the many suggestions to broaden the studies performed by the team at ChescoWx beyond a single county as we have done for Chester County PA! Based on this feedback we are excited to announce and start a US Nationwide complete state by state series to illustrate how the actual historical climate records with a focus on how much the annual average temperatures have been systematically adjusted by NCEI with the launch of the USHCN project back the later 1980's and 1990's. To be transparent at least for Chester County PA which was the original focus of the study the gap between the raw county record and NCEI’s Chester County series, we could only find support for about 1/3 of the Chester County NCEI post hoc adjustments based on documents we found, roughly another quarter could be the observation-time correction (not settled), and about 40% has no independent check. The actual Chester County climate data showed a slight but clearly not statistical warming trend from 1895 through 2025. While the revised NCEI data showed a clear statistically significant warming trend. If any of you are able to provide detailed support for any of the statistical and methodological data estimates which are what the homogenized NCEI adjustments represent... please provide this detail for these estimates by state if you can - thanks! We are undertaking this study following a just completed detailed review of 48 randomly selected based on similar size counties to Chester County PA. We selected 1 County in each of the 48 continguous US States. The findings in those 48 US Counties were consistent with what we saw here in Chester County PA. We found a clear consistent pattern across all 48 stations across the United States of clear cooling of the past records and general warming adjustments to more recent decades. Below are the consolidated findings and the detail of each of those selected 48 US Counties across the entire United States. Based on that finding (see below) of the share of counties where NCEI's adjusted value is cooler than the raw readings by decade....we will start a state by state review to see how many states show significant warming or not based on both the actual and adjusted NCEI data. First up will be my home state of Pennsylvania! I hope you all enjoy this upcoming study series!! All of these studies will also be presented and will be available for download at www.chescowx.com

Don - you are in the all time weather forum hall of fame in my book! Have and continue to enjoy all of your posts and data you present - thanks again!!

and I will continue to show the NCEI common tool of chilling the past and warming the present by highlighting the variance from raw to NCEI across not just Yellow Medicine County but the rest of the USA

Sorry the post you referenced is specifically about Yellow Medicine County

Unsurprisingly just like Chester County PA the raw data shows weak warming, at about two-thirds of NCEI’s rate looking at annual average temperatures for Yellow Medicine County from 1895 through 2025. As seems to be a common approach NCEI’s adjustments push the early years down and the recent years up. Before about 2000, NCEI’s values sit mostly below the raw ones; since then the two lines nearly overlap.....sounds familiar!

Sorry Don but the concentration of daily highs were by far occurring before 2000 across all locations! Most of Yellow Medicine’s daily record highs were set before 2000: about three-quarters before 2000 and about 90% before 2020. This counts all 366 calendar dates in the raw station data through 2025. Before 2000 Before 2020 Canby (in county, 1916–2025) 76% 91% Area, all 6 stations (1893–2025) 73% 89% Area without Granite Falls 75% 91% Canby’s records show about 75% of its years are before 2000, and 76% of its records were set then. About 94% of its years are before 2020, and 91% of its records were set then. That points to no clear trend toward more record highs. By decade, the 1930s dominate: they hold about 70 of the 366 area daily records, nearly twice any other decade. Canby alone has 72 from the 1930s, against 40 from the 1980s and 32 from the 2020s. Don Granite Falls exaggerates records as in fact that station only has temperatures for 1893–1897 and then not again until 2007. These are the days with a high temperature reported each year: Years Temperature Precipitation 1893–1896 Nearly complete (317–355 days a year) Yes 1897 61 days, then it stops Partial 1898–1947 None None 1948–1951 None Yes 1991–2006 None Yes, with gaps 2007–2025 Complete Yes

Still using altered not actual data with those figures....the facts are 6 of the top 10 warmest Septembers all occurred prior to 2000.With 3 of the top 6 warmest all before 1935!

Thanks Dream! excellent post and great points! I like you was on the opposite side of the fence but switched to the more benign view of CC. Just to be clear I of course believe in Climate Change that is scientific fact! I simply believe in the cyclical version plus I don't buy the one way ticket to boiling etc. that some of the more passionate alarmists lean into.

Lows this morning ranged from the upper 20's to lower 40's depending on elevation. Most valley spots saw temperatures below freezing this morning.

Lows this morning ranged from the upper 20's to lower 40's depending on elevation. Most valley spots saw temperatures below freezing this morning.