ChescoWx

A wee bit different take at the 850mb level between the GFS and European 12z....if GFS is right it rains up to MPO.

Both the Euro and GFS have the Miller B type low developing pretty far south off the NC border - a bit unusual as in recent years we have seen lows forming more north and east. Euro a bit more strung out but would if to be believed give most folks N and W of 95 their 1st measurable snow before any mix or change to rain.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

12z Euro ensembles only a couple panels with any somewhat significant snow

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

Some additional details on White Christmas history and probabilities across Chester and SE Berks Counties including the storm dates and snow amounts on the ground both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Some additional details on White Christmas history and probabilities across Chester and SE Berks Counties including the storm dates and snow amounts on the ground both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

We picked up between 0.24" to 0.35" of rain overnight. The weather finally turns sunnier for the next 3 days with temperatures not too far from normal for late November. Rain chances increase by Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures by Wednesday PM not too far from 60 degrees! We turn sharply colder by Thanksgiving and the rest of the holiday weekend.

Well, I have completed some deep analysis across all of the Chester County and SE Berks County PA climate sites to see how often we have seen a White Christmas here in the western Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and SE Berks Counties. Now what is up for debate is what represents a White Christmas?? For purposes of this exercise, I am considering measurable snow on the ground (+0.2") on either December 24th or December 25th before midnight. Some interesting statistics of note. We have received Holiday Week snow during Christmas week (December 17th through 25th) in 77 of the 132 years or 58% of all Christmas seasons We experience a White Christmas somewhere in Chester/SE Berks Counties about 1 out of every 3 years or 34% of all years. We have received measurable snow on 29 Christmas Eve or Days (22%) 16 measurable snows on Christmas Eve 13 measurable snows on Christmas Day One inch or more snow was on the ground: 32 times on Christmas Eve (24%) 31 times on Christmas Day (23%) Our last White Christmas was last Christmas Eve Day when 0.5” fell at East Nantmeal and 0.4” at Octoraro Lake on December 24th. Below is the number of White Christmases by Decade including the partial decades of the 1890’s and our current decade the 2020’s.

Well, I have completed some deep analysis across all of the Chester County and SE Berks County PA climate sites to see how often we have seen a White Christmas here in the western Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and SE Berks Counties. Now what is up for debate is what represents a White Christmas?? For purposes of this exercise, I am considering measurable snow on the ground (+0.2") on either December 24th or December 25th before midnight. Some interesting statistics of note. We have received Holiday Week snow during Christmas week (December 17th through 25th) in 77 of the 132 years or 58% of all Christmas seasons We experience a White Christmas somewhere in Chester/SE Berks Counties about 1 out of every 3 years or 34% of all years. We have received measurable snow on 29 Christmas Eve or Days (22%) 16 measurable snows on Christmas Eve 13 measurable snows on Christmas Day One inch or more snow was on the ground: 32 times on Christmas Eve (24%) 31 times on Christmas Day (23%) Our last White Christmas was last Christmas Eve Day when 0.5” fell at East Nantmeal and 0.4” at Octoraro Lake on December 24th. Below is the number of White Christmases by Decade including the partial decades of the 1890’s and our current decade the 2020’s.

We have not had much sun this week and today will be no different. Rain chances increase late tonight with around 0.20" possible for most areas. We should finally see the sun return tomorrow through Monday with afternoon high temperatures near average at around 50 degrees. Our next rain chances increase by Tuesday late day into Wednesday. Wednesday should be our one well above average temperature day with highs reaching near 60 degrees! We turn sharply cooler by Thanksgiving Day.

We have not had much sun this week and today will be no different. Rain chances increase late tonight with around 0.20" possible for most areas. We should finally see the sun return tomorrow through Monday with afternoon high temperatures near average at around 50 degrees. Our next rain chances increase by Tuesday late day into Wednesday. Wednesday should be our one well above average temperature day with highs reaching near 60 degrees! We turn sharply cooler by Thanksgiving Day.

After a frosty start this morning we will see a mostly cloudy day with temperatures this afternoon a few degrees cooler than normal for late November. Tomorrow we should see above normal temperatures but with rain arriving tomorrow night. The sun returns for the weekend with temperatures not too far from normal. We look to warm to well above normal by the day before Thanksgiving before the pattern change to colder takes hold by Turkey Day weekend.

After a frosty start this morning we will see a mostly cloudy day with temperatures this afternoon a few degrees cooler than normal for late November. Tomorrow we should see above normal temperatures but with rain arriving tomorrow night. The sun returns for the weekend with temperatures not too far from normal. We look to warm to well above normal by the day before Thanksgiving before the pattern change to colder takes hold by Turkey Day weekend.

A little below normal for Western Chester County PA where average is 35 inches and Eastern Chester County which averages closer to 32" of snow per season.