ChescoWx

Could this be at Top 10 snow since 2020 for many on this forum?

Below is the experimental RRFS that I believe will replace the NAM maybe as early as next month.

Snow arrives this evening after 7pm with maybe some rain at the onset across far southern and eastern areas of Chester into Delaware Counties. The snow should be ending by daybreak tomorrow morning. It will be windy and cold tomorrow with blowing and drifting snow and temperatures falling into the teens by afternoon. Of note we only need about 3 inches of snow to go to above normal snowfall for the season to date which is 4.4" after tomorrow. Our unseasonably cold weather looks like it will continue through mid-week. We finally see some warming on Thursday before we turn closer to normal temperatures to close out the week.

Snow arrives this evening after 7pm with maybe some rain at the onset across far southern and eastern areas of Chester into Delaware Counties. The snow should be ending by daybreak tomorrow morning. It will be windy and cold tomorrow with blowing and drifting snow and temperatures falling into the teens by afternoon. Of note we only need about 3 inches of snow to go to above normal snowfall for the season to date which is 4.4" after tomorrow. Our unseasonably cold weather looks like it will continue through mid-week. We finally see some warming on Thursday before we turn closer to normal temperatures to close out the week.

Some models for all - which one will be closest to reality?

3KM higher resolution

Latest NAM

By the way Timmy funny how my "improperly sited wx station" is statistically exactly the same average temperature variance over 17 full years vs KMQS a raw difference of only 0.4 degrees - also hate to break it to you but uh the latest 12z Euro has a high of 29 degrees now on Christmas Day....

Canadian not too far from Euro maybe a bit more aggressive

12z Euro - it has been steady for days....

NAM was steady between 6z and 12z

Timmy with a little lack of self awareness seems to continue LOL!!

timmy encouraging fantasies like you know that you believe that man can somehow actually impact our weather or climate would not be healthy to encourage you. I still live in the real world of facts. That said I love having you interact with my posts!! I get to live rent free in your head!!

12z NAM pretty consistent

I would go 1" to 3" from NW Chesco up through the Lehigh Valley 2" to 4" from Central Chesco down through Philly I95 1" to 2" toward the Jersey shore

My snow cover that day was 35 inches down to 20" on Feb 17th - down to a low of 6" on the 25th but back up to 18" on the 26th. I had snowcover from Feb 5th through March 7th

A world with some ensemble temperature support is where LOL

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

GFS did move north a bit from it's 6z run...but still south of some of the other models.

From one of my favorite professionals Bobby Martrich at EPAWA on the upcoming milder but not torch pattern before cold returns. "A lot of talk recently about a Christmas week "torch" and yes, there have and will be changes to the late next week period to just past Christmas that will take us out of the tank where we've been for much of December, and moderate the pattern. The culprit is a nearly 5 sigma high pressure/ridge over the Bering Sea, which was poorly modeled last week, and responded to a combination of a Scandinavian blocking pattern and the EAMT that retracted the Pacific jet too far... allowing this ridge to pop over the Bering Sea. If you watched the WW video last Sunday when I had @ShaneMartrich on, he talked about his research and lack of data in the polar regions. This may be one of those cases why the models and ensembles had a knee-jerk reaction this week. Kind of their version of an "oh crap" moment. By doing so, it turns the EPO positive, so the cross-polar flow is temporarily shut off. But for transparency, this is far from a "torch" pattern for us. Milder than now, yes... but aside from a synoptically-driven spike ahead of a cutter near the 18th, temperatures return closer to average instead of 15-20° below like they have been. This will be temporary, and may last more than a week, then colder returns late month and January."

I think anyone expecting a Christmas "torch" will be unhappy. While it will of course get warmer - heck this is one of the coldest first half's of December since the 1890s. I don't see this like the 1989 pattern. I suspect Christmas week while a lot warmer than now...will be not too far above normal readings for Christmas IMHO.