ChescoWx

Above is only thru 1pm

Sleet already up to ABE by 3pm on Sunday....

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.

Of interest on that list of top 50 storms - 11 of those 50 have occurred since 2000. So any climate changes at least here in Chesco are not lessening the frequency of big snowstorms!

Would imaging being a professional you are a wee bit busy!! good luck!!

12z Euro still showing ZR where their is likely sleet but it looks to have slightly bumped up totals across NW Chesco from 6z but basically pretty steady!

Hey Newman! Thanks - do you by chance have the top 25 total snowstorms for ABE? I need to go back and do that for Chester County stations. Below though are the Top 50 snowstorms in Chester County history since 1894. We will likely not break into the top 50 with this one!

NBM ticking down a bit with CAMS

Certainly not climo Steve!

The latest RRFS which will replace the NAM this year comes in with a snowier less sleety solution than it's older parent...

Looking at the 12z 3km NAM only through 7pm but it shows what I suspect will happen - a quick 6" to 9" of snow across Chester County up to the LV and a change to sleet all the way up to ABE from noon through 3pm from south to north. Then 0.5" north to 2" south of sleet which gets totals to 7" to 10" of snow/sleet by 7pm....if this went further I believe it will show a change back to all snow later like the 12km at night with maybe a couple more inches which gets us to 9" to 12" across the area from Southern Chesco up to ABE.

A cold weather advisory from the NWS goes into effect from 10pm tonight till 10am tomorrow morning. Highs today before an arctic frontal passage will get close to freezing in spots before dropping quickly by late afternoon. We should fall to the teens during the 7pm hour and near single digits by midnight tonight. Lows tonight should be near 4 degrees above zero and we recover tomorrow to no higher than 15 to 17 degrees. Wind chills near 10 below tomorrow. The well-advertised snowstorm arrives after midnight tomorrow night and could last into Monday morning. Most of Chester County will transition from heavy snow to heavy sleet during the late afternoon on Sunday. This will stop fast accumulating snow and move the area to slow accumulating sleet which does count as snow accumulation....be sure to clean off your snowboards when the snow turns to sleet. Once the storm passes on Monday we will see little melting for at least the next week - in fact, models are hinting we may not see another above freezing day till Groundhog Day in early February. Oh, and indeed I do not think we have seen our last snow event either.

A cold weather advisory from the NWS goes into effect from 10pm tonight till 10am tomorrow morning. Highs today before an arctic frontal passage will get close to freezing in spots before dropping quickly by late afternoon. We should fall to the teens during the 7pm hour and near single digits by midnight tonight. Lows tonight should be near 4 degrees above zero and we recover tomorrow to no higher than 15 to 17 degrees. Wind chills near 10 below tomorrow. The well-advertised snowstorm arrives after midnight tomorrow night and could last into Monday morning. Most of Chester County will transition from heavy snow to heavy sleet during the late afternoon on Sunday. This will stop fast accumulating snow and move the area to slow accumulating sleet which does count as snow accumulation....be sure to clean off your snowboards when the snow turns to sleet. Once the storm passes on Monday we will see little melting for at least the next week - in fact, models are hinting we may not see another above freezing day till Groundhog Day in early February. Oh, and indeed I do not think we have seen our last snow event either.

Updated and latest NWS Forecast

I am sure you know but that slop will likely be accumulating sleet which counts as snow....

I way prefer a sleetfest to ZR!!!

NAM 12km hitting the sleet hard past Allentown....

Folks will need to measure and wipe their snowboards as the sleet begins (plus run out and shovel). Sleet counts as snow albeit at about 3:1 a bit slower accumulations!

Snow first plus sleet second....change back to snow before ending?

Thanks Mike!! would have mentioned you too but was not sure you were on the forum. Take care Paul

Below is the sounding above KMQS Coatesville Airport at 7pm off the 12z Euro this appears to be the warmest hour on the model at 850mb previous 2 hours had some warmth at 700mb that looks like clearly IP to me. Does the below look like IP or ZR....I think it's close to ZR but mainly sleet - can our professional Mr. Newman weigh in? Thanks!

I remember it well! I was in KOP at the time....21 degrees with heavy ZR

Truth!