ChescoWx

By the way Timmy funny how my "improperly sited wx station" is statistically exactly the same average temperature variance over 17 full years vs KMQS a raw difference of only 0.4 degrees - also hate to break it to you but uh the latest 12z Euro has a high of 29 degrees now on Christmas Day....

Canadian not too far from Euro maybe a bit more aggressive

12z Euro - it has been steady for days....

NAM was steady between 6z and 12z

Timmy with a little lack of self awareness seems to continue LOL!!

timmy encouraging fantasies like you know that you believe that man can somehow actually impact our weather or climate would not be healthy to encourage you. I still live in the real world of facts. That said I love having you interact with my posts!! I get to live rent free in your head!!

12z NAM pretty consistent

I would go 1" to 3" from NW Chesco up through the Lehigh Valley 2" to 4" from Central Chesco down through Philly I95 1" to 2" toward the Jersey shore

My snow cover that day was 35 inches down to 20" on Feb 17th - down to a low of 6" on the 25th but back up to 18" on the 26th. I had snowcover from Feb 5th through March 7th

A world with some ensemble temperature support is where LOL

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.

GFS did move north a bit from it's 6z run...but still south of some of the other models.

From one of my favorite professionals Bobby Martrich at EPAWA on the upcoming milder but not torch pattern before cold returns. "A lot of talk recently about a Christmas week "torch" and yes, there have and will be changes to the late next week period to just past Christmas that will take us out of the tank where we've been for much of December, and moderate the pattern. The culprit is a nearly 5 sigma high pressure/ridge over the Bering Sea, which was poorly modeled last week, and responded to a combination of a Scandinavian blocking pattern and the EAMT that retracted the Pacific jet too far... allowing this ridge to pop over the Bering Sea. If you watched the WW video last Sunday when I had @ShaneMartrich on, he talked about his research and lack of data in the polar regions. This may be one of those cases why the models and ensembles had a knee-jerk reaction this week. Kind of their version of an "oh crap" moment. By doing so, it turns the EPO positive, so the cross-polar flow is temporarily shut off. But for transparency, this is far from a "torch" pattern for us. Milder than now, yes... but aside from a synoptically-driven spike ahead of a cutter near the 18th, temperatures return closer to average instead of 15-20° below like they have been. This will be temporary, and may last more than a week, then colder returns late month and January."

I think anyone expecting a Christmas "torch" will be unhappy. While it will of course get warmer - heck this is one of the coldest first half's of December since the 1890s. I don't see this like the 1989 pattern. I suspect Christmas week while a lot warmer than now...will be not too far above normal readings for Christmas IMHO.

Little lake effect streamer with a little whitening here in NW Chester County

We are seeing some lake effect streamers making into as far southeast as Chester County this morning and don't be surprised if we see a couple more snow showers during the day. We have already reached our high temperature for the day at about 130 this morning. Today’s temperatures will remain below freezing in most spots with wind gusts as high as 35 mph. Our top 10 coldest start to December looks like it will continue for at least the next week, and we may see a couple of snow chances over the next few days. The first one overnight Friday night looks very light while the next potential event toward Sunday morning could bring some locations their “largest” snow event this season. Of course, that would not be hard to do as our largest "event" has only been 0.5" Behind whatever happens on Sunday another very cold air mass moves in on Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday with temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday remaining in the mid to upper 20's for highs with lows in the teens.

We are seeing some lake effect streamers making into as far southeast as Chester County this morning and don't be surprised if we see a couple more snow showers during the day. We have already reached our high temperature for the day at about 130 this morning. Today’s temperatures will remain below freezing in most spots with wind gusts as high as 35 mph. Our top 10 coldest start to December looks like it will continue for at least the next week, and we may see a couple of snow chances over the next few days. The first one overnight Friday night looks very light while the next potential event toward Sunday morning could bring some locations their “largest” snow event this season. Of course, that would not be hard to do as our largest "event" has only been 0.5" Behind whatever happens on Sunday another very cold air mass moves in on Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday with temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday remaining in the mid to upper 20's for highs with lows in the teens.

How cold has this year's first 10 days of December been in Chester County PA? Glad you asked - This is the 10th coldest start to December since records began way back in 1893. Of note 5 of the top 11 cold starts to December have all occurred since 2000.

How cold has this year's first 10 days of December been in Chester County PA? Glad you asked - This is the 10th coldest start to December since records began way back in 1893. Of note 5 of the top 11 cold starts to December have all occurred since 2000.

The 850mb freezing line is sinking south - now just north of Chester County and through Northern Berks county. If precip sticks around past 5pm we might see a few flakes as far south as Chesco.

Latest control and European ensemble runs for the potential Sunday winter event.