ChescoWx

That said many of us are more than 150% of normal snowfall and having a well below normal temperature December. We are about to see our 6th winter event of this young winter season. Snow begets snow and I very much suspect we have many more winter weather events in our future. Keep the faith those of you on Team Snow!

12z NAM with it's 1st move to the SW - shows a sleetfest for all . I suspect it will shift further SW on the next run

I feel your pain Lvblizzard I have gained 1500 folks in the last 10 days and am approching like you 13k follower on my page....I am stunned how many folks in our area are so into the weather...good luck!!

this is true!!

It looks like only Chester and Delaware Counties in PA are not included in the WSW. I get these areas won't hit the snow thresholds but suspected due to travel issues they would issue a warning and then move it to a WWA tomorrow. But what do I know...

If only model snow was the real thing!! If I plowed all of the model snow we have not received my snowblower would be in the trash from overuse!! LOL!

no that is 0.2" of IP not included in the 7.3" of forecast model snow. Does that help?

While we will not have a White Christmas we did have 2 of what we here at ChescoWx call Christmas Season Snows during the present holiday season. Christmas Season Snow represents measurable snow events during the 12 days of Christmas. Based on historical data this occurs here in Chester County on average 2 of every 3 years or 66% of seasons. Below are all of the stats regarding White Christmas chances here in Chester County from 1893 through 2025.

While we will not have a White Christmas we did have 2 of what we here at ChescoWx call Christmas Season Snows during the present holiday season. Christmas Season Snow represents measurable snow events during the 12 days of Christmas. Based on historical data this occurs here in Chester County on average 2 of every 3 years or 66% of seasons. Below are all of the stats regarding White Christmas chances here in Chester County from 1893 through 2025.

That is not related to winter weather as it forms in a totally different way and even if we received hail in the winter it would not count toward winter based snow/sleet totals.

No it has always been included as snow since it does accumulate slowly and can be measured and shoveled albeit not easily. I remember a storm in March one year and I think I received 6" of mainly sleet.

Merry Christmas to all of you! Dry and breezy with near normal temperatures today a slight chance of a shower or snow flurry tomorrow morning and then a significant winter event for the entire area by later Friday. This will not be a significant snow event but will be impactful with mixed precipitation that falls occurring with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 20's. I suspect the predominant precipitation type will be sleet with increasing chances of freezing rain further south and more snow especially as we go north and east toward Trenton and NYC. Rain returns on Sunday night and we turn sharply colder again on Monday.

Merry Christmas to all of you! Dry and breezy with near normal temperatures today a slight chance of a shower or snow flurry tomorrow morning and then a significant winter event for the entire area by later Friday. This will not be a significant snow event but will be impactful with mixed precipitation that falls occurring with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 20's. I suspect the predominant precipitation type will be sleet with increasing chances of freezing rain further south and more snow especially as we go north and east toward Trenton and NYC. Rain returns on Sunday night and we turn sharply colder again on Monday.

Has anyone heard when in Q1 the RRFS replaces the NAM?

Unlike many times I think this could be accumulating sleet as the predominant p-type...sleet counts as snow

Latest RRFS still has heaviest snow south of most models

In my humble view I suspect what the RRFS (soon to replace the NAM) is showing is what may happen. A solid 2" to 5" of Snow/IP and then ZR on top. The below is through 1am Saturday just as the change to ZR is occuring to the NE of Chester County. Almost 2" of sleet at KMQS as part of their 4" Snow/IP total.

Only North Jersey would see significant snow b4 any change to IP or ZR - not the area of most of the posters here

for Brooklyn yes....for the focus of this forum....not so much!

18z Euro trended much worse with more ZR less snow and less IP....this would be a not great solution!

I kind of see it that way 3" to 5" of snow/sleet and then freezing rain....not a big fan of ZR!

GFS likely continues to miss the warm nose at 700mb

NAM 12km has the start of the sleetfest after a couple inches of snow - verbatim could be 2" to 4" of snow/sleet before any change to ZR....but alas that will change a lot by Friday!