ChescoWx

This morning, we saw many valley locations across the area down into the single digits for low. The lowest was the 6.1 at Warwick. This was the coldest morning since late last January when many spots saw below zero temps both the 21st and 22nd of January. We continue to keep well below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. We do warm up to closer to normal tomorrow which should allow any start of snow or freezing rain to switch to plain rain from SE to NW across the area by late morning. A couple more chances of snow look possible both on Friday night and again on Sunday morning. More frigid temperatures follow any snow potential on Sunday with the coldest day so far this year by next Monday.

This morning, we saw many valley locations across the area down into the single digits for low. The lowest was the 6.1 at Warwick. This was the coldest morning since late last January when many spots saw below zero temps both the 21st and 22nd of January. We continue to keep well below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. We do warm up to closer to normal tomorrow which should allow any start of snow or freezing rain to switch to plain rain from SE to NW across the area by late morning. A couple more chances of snow look possible both on Friday night and again on Sunday morning. More frigid temperatures follow any snow potential on Sunday with the coldest day so far this year by next Monday.

You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis! Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

You can tell things have slowed down with my business as we near the holidays....plenty of time for some updated analysis! Below are the Top 10 snowstorms since January 1, 2020 here in East Nantmeal Township. We have had 5 storms greater than 6 inches but only 2 storms that have exceeded 10" or more.

Euro not so enthused

Below is the latest GFS model which paints an almost ideal view of what a classic White Christmas would look like. Below is the total snow between this weekend and Christmas Eve morning at 7am. That model has a morning temperature of 18 degrees with between 10" to 14" of model snow we will never have to shovel.

At East Nantmeal today will be our 2nd below freezing day of the season and this morning was our 16th sub-freezing low. Below are the average number of each type of day at all of the Chester County Area Climate Locations. You may notice lower elevation spots in general experience more freezing lows while the relatively higher spots see more afternoon highs with below freezing temperatures.

At East Nantmeal today will be our 2nd below freezing day of the season and this morning was our 16th sub-freezing low. Below are the average number of each type of day at all of the Chester County Area Climate Locations. You may notice lower elevation spots in general experience more freezing lows while the relatively higher spots see more afternoon highs with below freezing temperatures.

Yep 2020-21 - 52.2" here in NW Chester County

The "trusty" ICON model highlight our next 2 winter "events" the first on Wednesday and the next on Friday night....

Following the arctic front passage temps have continued to slowly drop since sunrise across the area. Temperatures do not look to rise much today and remain in the upper 20's. Tonight will be the coldest night so far this season with lows not far from 10 degrees above zero. Some local station record lows will be broken including East Nantmeal record low was 17.7 back in 2010. We warm to near normal on Wednesday (this may be the last normal high temperature through Christmas) We should also see some snow arrive that will change pretty quickly to rain. We fall back below normal for the rest of the work week with additional snow chances arriving on Friday night into Saturday morning.

Following the arctic front passage temps have continued to slowly drop since sunrise across the area. Temperatures do not look to rise much today and remain in the upper 20's. Tonight will be the coldest night so far this season with lows not far from 10 degrees above zero. Some local station record lows will be broken including East Nantmeal record low was 17.7 back in 2010. We warm to near normal on Wednesday (this may be the last normal high temperature through Christmas) We should also see some snow arrive that will change pretty quickly to rain. We fall back below normal for the rest of the work week with additional snow chances arriving on Friday night into Saturday morning.

My dad used to say the same things to me about the 1940's and 1950's growing up in Philly. Then I showed him the data. We all believe it was snowier and colder when we were kids. This is why we have facts to keep it real...not discounting memories. I have mentioned this before but from 1967 to 1978 Philly had no significant snows over 6" at all! Imagine if that occurred today the kids who grew up in our snowy climate since 2000 would be crying daily....kind of like they are now. LOL!!

Well if you only go back to 2020 for sure....but 2010-2019 was snowier than the 70's / 80's / 90's....would you believe the 1970's were the least snowy decade?? I do because it never snowed in the 1970's in Philly!

I grew up in those years and we never saw much snow from 1967-1978 PHL recorded not one storm over 6". The snowiest decade of most of our live was the last complete decade from 2010-2019. The facts show it in fact did not snow more back when Steve was a kid and we followed Jim O Brien and Herb Clarke....it snowed more when we were adults in the last 20 years - 2 of our snowiest decades on record. Amazing how facts often fail to support our feelings! LOL!

Yes - let me know which stations/years you want and your email address and I will send it along.

I had looked at snow data for your area a couple years back and I think you are not too far up the road from here and it looks like at least at Blue Marsh Lake (is that close to you?) snow totals have trended higher in the last 46 years

I suspect our last complete decade in Western Berks was one of the snowiest on record....nothing has changed just cycles. Like I said above imagine going 23 years with below normal snowfall like Chesco did from the 1930's to 1950's....

Sometimes this hobby requires such huffing.....

12z Ensembles - White Christmas Season incoming - keep the faith Team Snow!! I will keep finding the snowiest maps!

Truth!! as a NWS spotter I have to add them up and report each one. Most folks will say it didn't snow at all....heck I have 3 winter "events" and all it totals is 1.1"

I have seen a lot of chatter across social media on how it doesn’t snow as much as it used to and if we don’t see significant snow by the end of December it is winter snow potential over! I have framed up some stats on some recent winters that may be why some of these folks may being influenced by some recency bias based on winters here during the past 20 years. Keep in mind it is only December 7th and some spots including East Nantmeal in Chester County have already exceeded 1 inch of snow for the season – to date most spots in our area average near 2 inches of snow to today's date in a typical season. Assuming we see no more snow this month below are some snow stats for years with 1 inch or less of accumulated snow by New Year’s Eve and the final seasonal snow totals. There is for certain a correlation but enough outliers to allow for Team Snow folks to dream! 30 years with 1” or less of snow by December 31st · 5 seasons ended up with above normal snowfall at +35” · 8 seasons ended up between 60% to 85% of normal snowfall at +20” · 7 seasons ended up between10” to 15” of snow · 6 seasons ended with no snow to 10% · The greatest snow season with little pre 12/31 snow was 1977-78 when 59.8” of snow fell · The least amount of seasonal snow was 1972-1973 when no snow at all accumulated that season at Coatesville. To put the above in greater perspective at the NWS and trained spotter locations at Coatesville 1W/2SW and East Nantmeal there have been 47 winters with greater than 35 inches of snow. In 3 decades 1900-1909 / 1910-1919 and just recently in 2010-2019 we experienced 6 winters seasons with snowfall greater than 35”. The longest stretch of no season with over 35” was the 23 straight snow seasons from 1934-35 through 1956-57 that all failed to exceed 35 inches of snow for the winter season. So far here in the 2020’s only 2020-2021 with 52.2” of snow has exceeded the 35” mark. So, if you think it doesn’t snow as much as it used to…just imagine growing up in Chester County in the 1930’s thru 1950’s! It is important to remember our last complete decade from 2010-2019 was our 3rd snowiest decade since the 1890’s with only the 1890’s and 1900-1910 averaging more snow then that last decade we just completed. If you are a believer in cyclical climate change like me I would suspect we are due for some less snowy winters.

I have seen a lot of chatter across social media on how it doesn’t snow as much as it used to and if we don’t see significant snow by the end of December it is winter snow potential over! I have framed up some stats on some recent winters that may be why some of these folks may being influenced by some recency bias based on winters here during the past 20 years. Keep in mind it is only December 7th and some spots including East Nantmeal in Chester County have already exceeded 1 inch of snow for the season – to date most spots in our area average near 2 inches of snow to today's date in a typical season. Assuming we see no more snow this month below are some snow stats for years with 1 inch or less of accumulated snow by New Year’s Eve and the final seasonal snow totals. There is for certain a correlation but enough outliers to allow for Team Snow folks to dream! 30 years with 1” or less of snow by December 31st · 5 seasons ended up with above normal snowfall at +35” · 8 seasons ended up between 60% to 85% of normal snowfall at +20” · 7 seasons ended up between10” to 15” of snow · 6 seasons ended with no snow to 10% · The greatest snow season with little pre 12/31 snow was 1977-78 when 59.8” of snow fell · The least amount of seasonal snow was 1972-1973 when no snow at all accumulated that season at Coatesville. To put the above in greater perspective at the NWS and trained spotter locations at Coatesville 1W/2SW and East Nantmeal there have been 47 winters with greater than 35 inches of snow. In 3 decades 1900-1909 / 1910-1919 and just recently in 2010-2019 we experienced 6 winters seasons with snowfall greater than 35”. The longest stretch of no season with over 35” was the 23 straight snow seasons from 1934-35 through 1956-57 that all failed to exceed 35 inches of snow for the winter season. So far here in the 2020’s only 2020-2021 with 52.2” of snow has exceeded the 35” mark. So, if you think it doesn’t snow as much as it used to…just imagine growing up in Chester County in the 1930’s thru 1950’s! It is important to remember our last complete decade from 2010-2019 was our 3rd snowiest decade since the 1890’s with only the 1890’s and 1900-1910 averaging more snow then that last decade we just completed. If you are a believer in cyclical climate change like me I suspect we are due for some less snowy seasons.

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.

While still colder than normal for early December it will still be about the best day this week to start or finish (in my case) putting up your Christmas decorations. Highs today will be well into the 30's but still at least 5 degrees below average. We again turn sharply colder tomorrow with the passage of an arctic front late tonight. Temperatures both tomorrow and Tuesday will remain below freezing. Tomorrow night looks to be our coldest night so far this early winter season with low temperatures not too far from 10 degrees. We moderate to closer to normal on Wednesday with rain shower chances increasing and then by Thursday night into Friday may see chances for some snow in at least parts of the area. We again turn very cold by next weekend.