ChescoWx

I am more into the mesos...but one thing that continues to be a Euro problem is it's insistence on ZR that it's own sounding just don't support.

18z Euro increased snow by a couple inches...it still shows way too much ZR which will never happen IMHO. Looking at soundings they are not ZR only IP.

Been a while since I have viewed a JB uh the other JB's forecast....I always felt bad how much grief he got for the famous forecast fail

Hrrr 12z 2026.01.24.mp4

Looks like only the snowstorm in January 2016 out in Chesco....might have been another year

6 inches of straight sleet in East Nantmeal with that one!

Across Chesco I think a solid 7" to 10" (SE to NW) of snow (6" - 8" snow/and 1" to 2" of sleet) with some ZR snizzle at the end. NAM leading the way

A significant winter storm will impact the area starting after midnight tonight. Arctic air has spread across the area with most spots still in single digits here in the 9am hour. We won’t warm much today with an outside shot at a station or 2 recording a top 5 coldest maximum temperature for the day. Highs generally in the middle teens above zero. Snow probably begins during the 2am hour from SW to NE across the area. It will be snowing heavily by daybreak, and we should see many spots accumulating at least 6” of snow by 10am. After 10am we should see a quick change from south to north to a prolonged period of accumulating sleet which will slowly add to our snow totals. It is possible that some areas of southern Chesco could see up to 3” of sleet on top of the snow that had previously fallen. Sleet could mix with the snow at times by later tomorrow night before ending by 11pm. The NWS has a forecast for 8” to 12” of snow/sleet accumulation across the area. Southern Chesco could see some freezing rain, but those amounts look light at this time. We stay very cold all week following the storm so little melting will take place as temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the next week. I expect many valley locations to see some morning with lows below zero.

A significant winter storm will impact the area starting after midnight tonight. Arctic air has spread across the area with most spots still in single digits here in the 9am hour. We won’t warm much today with an outside shot at a station or 2 recording a top 5 coldest maximum temperature for the day. Highs generally in the middle teens above zero. Snow probably begins during the 2am hour from SW to NE across the area. It will be snowing heavily by daybreak, and we should see many spots accumulating at least 6” of snow by 10am. After 10am we should see a quick change from south to north to a prolonged period of accumulating sleet which will slowly add to our snow totals. It is possible that some areas of southern Chesco could see up to 3” of sleet on top of the snow that had previously fallen. Sleet could mix with the snow at times by later tomorrow night before ending by 11pm. The NWS has a forecast for 8” to 12” of snow/sleet accumulation across the area. Southern Chesco could see some freezing rain, but those amounts look light at this time. We stay very cold all week following the storm so little melting will take place as temperatures will remain well below freezing for at least the next week. I expect many valley locations to see some morning with lows below zero.

Above is only thru 1pm

Sleet already up to ABE by 3pm on Sunday....

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.

Of interest on that list of top 50 storms - 11 of those 50 have occurred since 2000. So any climate changes at least here in Chesco are not lessening the frequency of big snowstorms!

Would imaging being a professional you are a wee bit busy!! good luck!!

12z Euro still showing ZR where their is likely sleet but it looks to have slightly bumped up totals across NW Chesco from 6z but basically pretty steady!

Hey Newman! Thanks - do you by chance have the top 25 total snowstorms for ABE? I need to go back and do that for Chester County stations. Below though are the Top 50 snowstorms in Chester County history since 1894. We will likely not break into the top 50 with this one!

NBM ticking down a bit with CAMS

Certainly not climo Steve!

The latest RRFS which will replace the NAM this year comes in with a snowier less sleety solution than it's older parent...

Looking at the 12z 3km NAM only through 7pm but it shows what I suspect will happen - a quick 6" to 9" of snow across Chester County up to the LV and a change to sleet all the way up to ABE from noon through 3pm from south to north. Then 0.5" north to 2" south of sleet which gets totals to 7" to 10" of snow/sleet by 7pm....if this went further I believe it will show a change back to all snow later like the 12km at night with maybe a couple more inches which gets us to 9" to 12" across the area from Southern Chesco up to ABE.

A cold weather advisory from the NWS goes into effect from 10pm tonight till 10am tomorrow morning. Highs today before an arctic frontal passage will get close to freezing in spots before dropping quickly by late afternoon. We should fall to the teens during the 7pm hour and near single digits by midnight tonight. Lows tonight should be near 4 degrees above zero and we recover tomorrow to no higher than 15 to 17 degrees. Wind chills near 10 below tomorrow. The well-advertised snowstorm arrives after midnight tomorrow night and could last into Monday morning. Most of Chester County will transition from heavy snow to heavy sleet during the late afternoon on Sunday. This will stop fast accumulating snow and move the area to slow accumulating sleet which does count as snow accumulation....be sure to clean off your snowboards when the snow turns to sleet. Once the storm passes on Monday we will see little melting for at least the next week - in fact, models are hinting we may not see another above freezing day till Groundhog Day in early February. Oh, and indeed I do not think we have seen our last snow event either.

A cold weather advisory from the NWS goes into effect from 10pm tonight till 10am tomorrow morning. Highs today before an arctic frontal passage will get close to freezing in spots before dropping quickly by late afternoon. We should fall to the teens during the 7pm hour and near single digits by midnight tonight. Lows tonight should be near 4 degrees above zero and we recover tomorrow to no higher than 15 to 17 degrees. Wind chills near 10 below tomorrow. The well-advertised snowstorm arrives after midnight tomorrow night and could last into Monday morning. Most of Chester County will transition from heavy snow to heavy sleet during the late afternoon on Sunday. This will stop fast accumulating snow and move the area to slow accumulating sleet which does count as snow accumulation....be sure to clean off your snowboards when the snow turns to sleet. Once the storm passes on Monday we will see little melting for at least the next week - in fact, models are hinting we may not see another above freezing day till Groundhog Day in early February. Oh, and indeed I do not think we have seen our last snow event either.