penndotguy

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z 

Nah hang in there, speaking for myself I enjoy reading your analysis and thoughts true the season has been 10 days away all season but it happens that way sometimes. Just as everyone gives up something will pop up and well all be amped up again. Hang in there 

On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 9:50 PM, RedSky said:

I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me!

 

 

Move down to the Mid Atlantic next Jinx them,  Lol

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dr No headed the wrong way with everything possible the next 10 days. Dont shoot the messenger. Wave 1 south and sheared. Wave 2 sheared south. Wave 3 amped cutter and losing the cold air.....sort of resembles yesterday storm. Thereafter beach weather for the foreseeable future. If it wasnt the Euro I would say meh whatever but this is a few runs in a row now where it essentially tries to put a nail in the coffin of winter 18-19. Again just relaying guidance data. Dr No just took that unicorn, sacrificed it, ripped off it's horn and shoved it where the sun doesnt shine.

so basically the same as it has been all winter.  

Cloudy 34 dp33 melting underway 

32 dp28 winds E@13 freezing rain 

holding at 30 dp28 for a few hrs now with sleet at various rates and freezing drizzle haven't measured the sleet or the snow prior to leaving for work at 4am looks like we did get maybe 2" snow, but the sleet is relentless not much icing on trees, power lines etc.  Im putting all chips in on this upcoming pattern change Lets do this   

Temp 30 dp28 moderate sleet continues roads even the majors are a mess

Back home been locked in at 27 sleetfest at work in Boyertown 30 sleet/freezing rain 

28 sleet/snow/ freezing rain/ watching for the kitchen sink

I was hoping for 7” from these 2 events to put me at 20”, seems decent but without November I’m only at 5.5 

Welp sleet and freezing rain now in Boyertown. Temp 30

12 minutes ago, Newman said:

I think we will get a heavy slug of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from 7am to about 4 or 5pm when a lull of some sort might come through. Then the backside comes through with plain rain. 

Moderate sleet  at work in Boyertown 

3 minutes ago, Newman said:

The precip is starting to make it's way east now. Should be here by 7am. The problem which I and anthonyweather talked about earlier was exactly this. The low dews and dry air would eat away at any snowfall we could get overnight. Once precip would start to move in, it would be too late with the warm nose already at our doorstep. I think we should start as snow, but a quick flip to sleet and freezing rain is likely (hope I'm wrong). And I agree with Mount Holly that late morning and mid afternoon should feature some heavy precip, whether that being rain, snow, sleet, etc.

Yeah I do remember you guys expressed the chance of that happening, when I cleared the snow off my porch it had a crust on it at 4am almost like it was freezing drizzle maybe cause precip was very light? I hope we don't get 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain, ugh rather just have the plain rain

I really don't see what Mt Holly sees as far as heavy mixed precip. am I missing something? 

What are the chances Warnings are dropped at the 4 am update? No way 5-7 is reached at this point 1-3 is a stretch 

Edit: Warning remains in effect for heavy mixed precip 3-5” for Berks and Lehigh

30 dp28 with light snow falling again. 

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS updates: NYC office delays precip onset to ~7 am and Philly office thinks snow be be a little overdone for their far NW...

National Weather Service New York NY
101 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
With high pressure nosed into the region from the north, and
with latest guidance holding off precipitation until closer to
12Z, delayed onset of precipitation a few hours.

The high pressure area within Southeast Canada builds in
through much of tonight as diagnosed by positive pressure
tendencies within the local region. Towards daybreak Tuesday,
pressure tendencies will become neutral to negative, as high
pressure moves farther away farther northward within Southeast
Canada. This will be accompanied by steady rising heights aloft.
There will be large amount of dry air to overcome with initial
precipitation and the aforementioned factors convey more
subsidence that will limit growth of any precipitation.
Expecting dry conditions to prevail through much of tonight with
increasing clouds. Chances for snow increase late from SW to
NE, not becoming likely until after 5AM Tuesday. Lows tonight
were a blend of raw consensus and GMOS, ranging from the low to
upper 20s.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1258 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250am Update: Regional radar imagery indicates a light band of
precip draped across eastern PA and central/southern NJ. Most
of this precip is falling in the form of light snow, with some
mixed precip near the southern most fringe of the band. Updated
the forecast to reflect the latest trends in radar, surface
observations, and hi-res guidance through the overnight hours.
This initial round of precip appears to be lighter and much less
than coverage, especially across Delmarva and far southern NJ,
than was originally forecast. The latest HRRR runs appear to be
capturing its evolution well whereas the 00z NAM and NAM Nest
runs initialized too warm and dry. Currently expecting this band
to persist with occasional showers of rain or mixed precip
across our southern areas for the next few hours. Better forcing
and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding
more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With
that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit
too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos
and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with
the next forecast update.

Surely was over done I sit at .25 so far from round 2. was forecast 1-3 overnight. just some pixie dust falling at the moment in Berks county Pa

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Same here radar is a train wreck

My less than 1.5" is too high lol

 

 

At this point my 5-7 has no chance of verifying, according to the HRRR it should be snowing now and i have flurries at the moment 

Mt Holly 12:50am update


Better forcin and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding
more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With
that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit
too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos
and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with
the next forecast update.

Cloudy skies .25 so far for round 2 I gotta say somewhat disappointing 

Flurries and occasional light snow, I expected steadier snow than this

Steady light snow pavement covered 30 dp29

Round 2 underway in Berks light snow 32 dp28

Light snow ended and peeks of sun through the clouds temp 29 Dp28 call it 1.10” for round 1 

33 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah with precip holding off longer, it'll allow for the warm push to creep further north. Once precip does begin I expect a quick flip to sleet and ice. I think the surface will remain locked in until at least 2 or 3 pm, maybe longer. So prolonged sleet and ice the main impacts. Tomorrow's commute will be very dicey.

Do you still have light snow? It looks like the precip is hitting a wall from temple north