Jump to content

snowfan

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,061

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by snowfan

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Or move up here and commute like I do lol. My elevation helps me some in offsetting the boundary layer warming. It has gotten worse up here but only marginally. For someone used to the DC or Baltimore climo this would seem great still. Even during this last 8 years I’ve only had 2 dead ratters with less than 20”.  
     

    Or better yet if you want true winters move up to northern New England. My friend has a place in south rental Vermont. He has like 20” on the ground right now. Warming, if you do make sure you factor elevation. The valleys even up there can be frustrating. I’ve been there many times where his place gets 10” and Bennington in the valley gets 2” and is melting already by the end of the day.  
     

    But yes of you’re going to stay in the mid Atlantic 95 corridor it’s wise to accept reality.  However, that doesn’t have to mean worrying about the next storm in a thread about this storm. Or worrying about next winter. What if the PDO flips?  I don’t expect it too. It’s probably not going to with a Nina coming. But we can’t say for sure. It’s not worth getting all upset about yet. 

    Here’s a good map depicting avg NNE snowfall. The valley lows are well shown here for VT, similar to how there’s a significant drop off in snowfall in NH south of the notches. 

    IMG_1121.png

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    @snowfan without the snark I think it’s fair to question whether under our current thermal regime certain things are still likely. Im also honestly annoyed with the penchant for some here to get hostile anytime the FACT that it’s warmer now gets referenced. Thermometers aren’t subjective. It is warming. That is not a disputable fact. I will accept that what could be disputed is the cause of the warming and the permanence. I have my opinions and many can likely guess them but I’ve NEVER brought those 2 arguments into this forum. They’re irrelevant to my point anyways so why bother. 
     

    The fact is it’s warmer now than 20 or 50 years ago. Whether that is temporary and starts to reverse at some ambiguous time in the future 10, 20, or 500 years from now is totally irrelevant to my point. I’m discussing the effects of the warming that’s happened already on our prospects for snow right now. This is important because a lot of our forecasting is analog based. And we have to know what works and if something no longer does. 
     

    Back to what started this. The DC area used to get “cold smoke” snowstorms a lot more frequently. To illustrate my point I used days where IAD got 4” and a high 5 degrees below freezing. We could use other metrics but it’s unlikely to change the picture.  For 40 years it happened with decent regularity.  19 times.  In the last 20 years it’s happened in only one year, the unicorn 2009-10. And not a single time in the last 14 years.  IMO that is long enough and enough data to make the question whether that is still something realistically viable or likely a legitimate one. If you disagree how long does it take to make even asking that question valid. 20 years?  50?  Do we wait 100 years without a cold smoke snow to even ask if they are indeed still viable?  I didn’t answer the question.  I didn’t say I know. I simply asked and you reacted as if I was being ridiculous. 
     

    That’s why I reacted with a snide flippant response. Maybe that was unfair. But I thought your reaction to that question was equally unfair. 

    First, your comment yesterday was “cold smoke blizzards” which isn’t something that should be tossed around nonchalantly for the mid Atlantic. Those are anomalies in our long term historical records. That is fact. 
     

    second, I’m not arguing that it is now warmer. Never have. What I take exception with are the claims by you and others that this area now suddenly will no longer experience snowy periods and/or snowy winters in general. It is also fact to state that neither you or I know what our long term winter weather will look like. Look at the most recent 15 years at BWI. Rough winters. Some true ratters, to be honest. But we also managed the winter of 09-10, which is now the golden standard of winters for the metro areas. We also had the 3 year stretch of 13/14 - 15/16, which is the best 3 year stretch at BWI in the last 60 years. Both of those things….a historical winter and a historical string of 3 winters all came during an overall down period for snow in the metro areas. Will our long term averages continue to incrementally decline? It appears so. Our most recent 30 yr avg at BWI is 19”. That’s down from the prior 30 year period avg of 20.2”. But it is way too soon to know what our yr over yr winters are going to look like. In this area, most of us are a few moderate to strong storms from being near avg. it doesn’t take much.

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

    Honestly I can't really complain. I'm at between 13-14" on the season and been able to go sledding half a dozen times with my daughter, with a couple of jebwalks while it was actually snowing. She's a weenie like me, and we have a great time together out there. Lots of father/daughter moments made. I couldn't say that last winter.

    Yes, I'm dissapointed that we didn't get a HECS, and this being a Nino year, we probably blew our shot at one of those and it'll likely be years before we get another loaded chance. But from where I'm sitting, I can't complain. 

    Ironically, most of our snows came from nina-like northern stream lows. I'd be THRILLED if I got 14" in a La Nina winter. 

    All it takes is 1 storm. January 96 and January 00 were both in Nina’s. Outliers, yes, but it can happen. 

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    Ya we’ve been getting cold Smoke blizzards left and right. 

    You live in Maryland and nowhere close to the Allegheny front at that. You’ve never received cold smoke blizzards left and right. You’ve observed isolated cold smoke blizzards throughout a 100+ year reporting period. And right now, none of us knows what the next 100 years will look like. Geesh….

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted 

    As we quickly move forward into late Thursday, Thursday night and
even into Friday, there remains a timing and track discrepancy
between the models with a more vigorous low pressure system. The GFS
still wants to bring a low pressure system across our region and
spread rain showers throughout. The Euro wants to delay the low
pressure system until more of Friday and shunt it farther to the
south near the Virginia and North Carolina border. The GFS would
translate to mainly rain, while the Euro opens up the option of some
wintry weather. For now, the flavor is rain and timing more so
on Thursday. There is a moderate confidence that higher
elevations in the Appalachians and Blue Ridge and perhaps along
the Mason-Dixon border could encounter some snow or a wintry
mix. Temperatures on Friday look to be cooler for the most part.
×
×
  • Create New...