snowfan

18 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Do you have a sounding?

7am Tuesday just north of DC and along the M/D line near mappy.

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was last night to someone else and I did as much as possible to reply to a legit question honestly without going into a warming discussion. But that post also had nothing to do with the conversation you were responding to which I also was careful to avoid directly getting into any CC discussion.  If your mad that the replies simply allude vaguely to the fact it is warmer then grow TF up and deal with it.  But nice bait and switch attempt. I suggest you stop.
 

For the record I’m done playing nice with anyone who tries this Fng BS nonsense anymore.  If a question or legit discussion comes up that is ancillary related to warming and I or someone else responds as innocuously as possible but inevitably the reply just alludes or only hints to the fact warming exists and this hurts your fragile ego I suggest you suck it up and cope some other way than passive aggressive attempted to shut down any mention that it’s warmer in a weather discussion. 

There is NOTHING being discussed on this sub that warrants an I’m done playing nice response. WTAF. 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Ok, 

Stop trying Will. There will be something to critique regardless of what it looks like. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If it's going at 1"+ hour rates like the run had it, that'll end up incorrect. Especially for northern spots where it kicks off between 7-10am. Probably not relevant anyway. But the snow depth map has sucked ass the 3 events we had this year. Gotta blend it with other, equally bad snow maps at least

Crappy surface temps + midday usually doesn’t work too well unless you’re far N/W of the cities. I’d feel better about our chances if this was coming in overnight. 
 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I dunno man, but ok. 

My insomnia finally caught up with me.  I was down at like 9:15 last night. lol.  I’m just now waking up. 

Late night on U Street?

Recommended.

It’s crazy how the same handful of people on this sub always control the narrative that is allowed. The follow the leader mentality is really weird. 

Time for a south trend baby

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Omg the cold pattern that's not that cold. 

Shhhh…..it’s the storm after the storm after the storm.

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

It’s a short drive to the poconos. Is it legal to take your kids out of school to chase snow? Asking for an acquaintance.

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Low further south @ 117

Lows cutting to cincy are no bueno w a shit airmass in place.

12 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

24 hours later..................................

I’m in a lighter shade of gray now. This pattern flip sucks. 

10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Man this feels like perhaps the longest lead in to any potential winter weather that i can remember. If for some reason we don't score well during the favorable period or if it starts to fall apart on the models then holy yikes is there going to be some broken souls in here. I bet the board loses several posters forever if that happens I can think of 5 that i'm hoping for

We are now actually rooting against scoring now because it will prevent us from having better looks……CLOSER TO MARCH. 

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

CMC cuts to Buffalo then transfers off the jersey coast. 

CMC solution makes it tempting to road-trip to downeast Maine for this one. Holy shit. 

Congrats New England. 

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro is gorgeous…until you look at temps.

Yeah…..but the temps. Woof. 
 

Area of impact for some winter weather beginning to expand in WPCs day 6 probs. Still favoring N/W areas, but this was largely confined to the far western mountains even just yesterday. Slow progress.

 Who likes a wet V Day?

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Adding on to my general thoughts from earlier. If you add up the variables. A very slow mjo progression. The timing of the soi tanking. The block coupling with another SPV weakening. I don’t think the pattern flips again. I think we simply run the table here and winter just slowly fades later in March or April as it just gets too warm barring an extreme event eventually.  Yes there will be fluctuations within that period but I don’t think we we another overall hostile long wave period this cold season. 
 

That said if we do the timing of possible waves and project that we have at least until March 10 before climo starts to become a big problem, starting with Feb 14 we should have at a minimum 5 waves to track and maybe as many as 7. Each of these waves will have a chance as they eject from the west. Maybe some cut. Maybe some are suppressed. The lead wave could have temp issues. But it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on every one of these!  And I’m being very conservative here. If we extend the window to perhaps March 15 or even March 20 given the right pattern, it could be as many as 8-10 waves with a chance. No we won’t hit them all. We won’t even hit most. But damn it we just need one big flush hit.  Throw is maybe on or two other lesser events and we walk off into the sunset as the credits roll. 

TLDR version: we don’t know what’s going to happen thru mid March.

Yesterday’s temp profile was more promising. This looks like white rain unless you’re west of 81. Plenty of time to improve though. 

 

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Op run at range.

Although ens runs have been hinting at this outcome.

I appreciate that you ‘op run at range’ ed your own post lol. All true re: op run. That said, you would expect that the signals showing up in the ensembles will eventually translate to some consistent signs of cold/storminess in the ops. Let’s just assume this is the LR GFS doing its usual every 6 hour dance. 

Big dog pattern.